The Track

The track is currently a Good 3 (Friday morning) with fine weather forecast for Saturday. We expect the track will race as a Good 3, without a significant pattern.


Speed and Tactics

Oak Door (7) should come across to lead them here. Redouble (6) should trail him across to also be up there, with Knowable (1) taking a trail on the inside.

Kerrin McEvoy has an important tactical choice to make on the current favourite Attention. With a good start he does have the speed to work forward, but it’s far from a guarantee that he will easily slot in two wide. Equally, going back is likely to place him at a disadvantage, especially if the pace slows in the middle stages.

Oak Door can roll along at a strong speed (as he did last start) but has also shown he can relax into a below average pace when able to take up his position without doing too much work. This could be a race where the pace might be solid enough while they find positions, but then slows in the middle stages (1000m to 600m) before significantly increasing again.

Early Pace Rating: Below average to Average

Late Pace Rating: Average

Best Suited: On lead to 3 lengths off


WFA Performance Ratings – Winning Benchmark

Looking at the lead up form into this race, we expect the winner will need to run to at least a 95 WFA Performance Rating at the weights being carried. There are too many runners that have been to that level before for at least one of them not to hit that mark again in this race. That mark has a key influence on our assessment, especially when it comes to some runners in the market that have yet to reach that level.


Race Assessment

6. KNOWABLE: FORECAST 95 - 96. ASSESSED $4.60

While it was a minor surprise he won last start, there was no fluke in the performance. He sat handy to a strong pace and kept going to run fast overall time, returning a 96 rating that puts him on top of this field. He’s drawn perfectly here to get a cheap run on the inside at a softer pace than he experienced last start. He’s looks a good value prospect.

1. ATTENTION: FORECAST 93 - 95. ASSESSED $6

His last start run against older horses was sound enough, striking a bit of interference late when already well beaten. He needs to improve on that run to win this and he could do that better suited up to 1400m. However it’s worth pointing out that his career peak is no better than a few of the others in this. With that in mind we respect him as one of the good chances, but can’t see any value in the market price.

5. RUTHVEN: FORECAST 91 - 97. ASSESSED $6

A very interesting runner in this race. His second to Morton’s Fork in the Sandown Guineas last Spring puts him at a 97-98 level at the weights in this race, which is almost certainly a winning mark. That was however a very slowly run race which became little more than a sprint over the final 400m. That combined with the fact that he’s first up here raises a small query, but it would not surprise to see him win.

3. OAK DOOR: FORECAST 93.5 - 94.7. ASSESSED $6.50

He’s racing in great form and certainly deserves a crack at this race. He simply went too hard in front last start, but battled on well considering. He should get the lead comfortably here and if he can travel along at a more average tempo, he could give a sight in the straight. Not hopeless.

4. SNITZSON: FORECAST 93 - 95. ASSESSED $7

Looked impressive winning last start, but he was ideally suited by a strong pace up front and slow final race sections that allowed him to finish over the top of them. He’s certainly a very competitive chance, here, but with a difference of opinion on the substance in his last start win, we can’t find him anywhere near the current market price.

2. PEACOCK: FORECAST 91.5 - 93.5 ASSESSED $12

Was outclassed in the Australia Stakes last start and in any case only ran to a rating that is still a comfortably below the standard needed to win this. He’s an improver that could measure up, but on exposed form we have to oppose him with an assessment that is double his current market price.

7. REDOUBLE: FORECAST 90 - 94.5 ASSESSED $16

His career best rating is just below the standard to win this and came on soft ground, as did his second best rating. A dry track for this race and moderate last start run makes it hard to like him.

8. NONE BETTER: FORECAST 80 - 88 ASSESSED $151

His last start Maiden win is a long way below the standard that will be needed to trouble these.


Betting Strategy

 BACK (WIN) Knowable at $4.80+ Stake 1% of your total bank


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