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Eagle Farm
Rain early in the week won’t have any effect on this track. Even when they say it’s a soft 5 all reports are it’s the top layer then still rock hard underneath.
Once we get to the 10m mark, there are often lanes on the track and that makes it extremely hard as we have no idea exactly where they will be and who finds them. Bit of success recently and think we can handpick a few to stay in front.
SCOTTISH MIST went through the grades last prep and really looked good doing it. She returned over the unsuitable 1200m Doomben and had the 3rd best L400m of the day. Second up isn’t an issue, she likes the track and out to 1300m is perfect on the big spaces of EF. She looks extremely well placed in a race like this.
ZOUCARA is another get back horse who is good on her day but very hard to catch. I do think Wiggins suits but she needs to improve off her last two runs, I’ve found it very hard to catch the Munce yard recently.
FLYING MACHINE is far from the worst. The 1000m fresh would have just been a barrier trial and had 2nd best last split. This more suitable but the 62kg is a little query. HALLOWED GIRL next best, just feel she might be better for the run.
BACK (WIN) — Scottish Mist for 2 units
Probably more even than it first looks and easy to make a case for half the field. MISS PENFOLD has always shown above average ability but felt she was pretty poor in the straight last start. This is an easier grade, she has 54kg and gets Byrne on top. If she can’t do anything with him on top I have no idea where they go.
WATCH THE CAT meets MISS PENFOLD 3kg worse off for their last meeting but he clearly outpointed her there. In a very good stable and don’t be surprised if they sit a bit closer from the better gate. Likes this track and fitter for recent racing. Really well placed and around that $5 looks fair.
BACK (WIN) — Watch The Cat for 1.25 units
BACK (WIN) — Miss Penfold for 0.75 units
Not getting too involved but a small place bet here. STAY SMART is going far better than it reads on paper and if it had drawn a gate I’d have been having something on. Got back to last on Wave day but ran the best splits between 600-400 and the 200-home. Can run into the placing’s at odds but don’t want Tegan spotting them too big off a start, needs a decent ride.
BACK (PLACE) — Stay Smart for 0.5 units
Really tricky way to finish the day.
ADELAIDE’S DIAMOND was a good win on debut. It was a poor race but love the way he kept fighting to win there. Last start the blinkers went on and was making a run where chopped out of it. Out to this trip with Byrne on creates interest and the main query would be a hard EF surface as the first two starts have been soft ground. Thought it would have been closer to double figures.
KAAYDEH might be the best roughie. A consistent type who is always running on late but doesn’t win often. Reckon she has just bumped into a handy one her last couple and this track/trip should be suitable.
BACK (WIN) — Adelaide’s Diamond for 0.5 units
BACK (PLACE) — Kaaydeh for 0.5 units
Total Units Staked: 253.25
Total Units Returned: 252.18
ROI: -0.42%
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