QLD Election: Odds and Analysis

the current state of affairs

Anastasia Palaszczuk’s government managed to just claim a majority at the last election, winning 48 of the 93 seats. The Liberal Nationals currently hold 38 seats with a seven-strong crossbench that includes six are conservative-leaning and one Green. To win a majority government, Deb Frecklington’s LNP will need to win nine seats.

the issues

The QLD election, like everything in 2020, will be dominated by Covid-19. Border restrictions in particular are set to dominate the election. There has been an exodus of ministers from the Palaszczuk government including the popular Kate Jones. School congestion will be an issue for Brisbane voters.

history

For all the talk that Queensland is a conservative state, it has only had a non-Labor government for five years since Wayne Goss took office in 1989, ending 32 years of National rule.

A new generation of Queenslanders seem to have neither forgotten the corruption or graft that marked those 32 years with Labor clearly the natural ruling party of the state. Labor even bounced back within a single election from an electoral annihilation in 2012 to win back power in 2015.

polling

The latest Omnipoll on September 14 has the LNP winning 56% of the Two-Party Preferred. The LNP have been ahead for the last 12 months. There are some key polling trends though that seem to put Labor ahead in this QLD election.

Anastasia Palaszczuk led Deb Frecklington by 31 percentage points as preferred premier while the premier has a +35% satisfaction rating while the opposition leader has a -8% rating. Marginal seat polling done in Currumbin, Mansfield and Aspley in mid-August has the ALP ahead 52-48 in the 2PP.

betting

Betting is close to pick ‘em. This has been the case for much of the year with the LNP slight favourites at points.

likely outcome

At this stage, the smart money will come for Labor. Their early strategy of heroing Palaszczuk carries some risk but she is a strong performer in a state that really doesn’t have many. History is on her side and closing the borders is likely going to be mixed with a little fear that will resonate, particularly in key marginals.

There is not enough angst to suggest Labor will be swept from government.