Promotion Arbitrage: The New Bookie

There’s a new corporate bookie on the scene and his name is Ned. He’s offering generous promotions to incentivise new customers. As a Betfair client you can capitalize on these with little to no risk and convert them to cash.


The Marketing Playbook

Corporate bookmakers believe there’s only one way to get customers. It’s the Sportsbet model that Tom Waterhouse took to painful saturation. Bombard the sporting public with television ads, banner ads, public transport paint jobs, sponsorship and promotions.

The latter strategy, promotions, is all that we care about.

Promotions, usually free bets, are a great way for savvy punters to make risk free profits. Let’s look at some ways to capitalize on ‘Neds’ generosity.


$505 Free Bet Offer

When we first wrote this article Neds had the biggest sign up offer in the industry. $808 matched on your first deposit.

Less than 48 hours later, potentially due to all the arbers we sent them, they took a knife to their generosity.

Their best offer,  a $505 free bet, only applies to your first bet.

That means that you need to have $505 or more on your first bet.

To minimise risk, we recommend finding something really short. Boxing is a great place to find legitimate $1.01 shots. Just be sure to check the Betfair Exchange because corporate bookies can bet up to 108% (!) for boxing. You want to find  a $1.01 boxer with Neds that is $1.01-$1.02 on Betfair, not a $1.10 Betfair.

You can then choose to lay that same boxer on Betfair to completely eliminate the risk.

Once that first bet is resulted, you should get $505 in free bets.


Good To Know, But How Do I Turn $505 In Free Bets Into Cash?

There are plenty of different strategies that help convert free bets into cash. It just depends what your strengths are as a punter, as well as your appetite for risk.

If you’re a professional cricket punter then use the $505 as part of your usual betting strategies. Similarly, if your primary income is derived from horse racing then back overpriced horses at fixed odds.

Another option, which is more relevant to the rest of us, is arbitrage betting. You can turn the free bets into risk free cash.


What’s Arbitrage And How Do I Use It On Promos?

Arbitraging, as we’ve discussed before, is placing multiple bets on the same event and ensuring a profitable outcome regardless of the result.

The easiest way to do that is to find fixed odds on Neds which closely match those on the Betfair Exchange.

Often, if you put the time in, you’ll find odds on Neds which exceed Betfair. Whilst these golden opportunities aren’t required for free bet arbitrage, they do make the returns greater.

In less than ten minutes of scouring their website we were able to find a great opportunity for the UEFA Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) are $6 on Neds (apologies if the market has updated by the time you read this):

The same selection is $5.60 on Betfair

So let’s maximise this opportunity with a free bet arb.


UEFA Champions League – PSG Outright Winner

  1. BACK PSG at Neds at odds of $6 with a $250 free bet
  2. LAY PSG on Betfair at odds of $5.60 with $225.23

 

If PSG doesn’t win:

  1. $250 free bet is lost – $0 actual loss
  2. $225.23 lay bet wins ($213.96 win taking into account 5% commission)

Result: $213.96

 

If PSG wins:

  1. Free bet wins – $250 x $6.00 – $250 stake = win $1250
  2. Lay bet loses, which costs us – $225.23 x $5.60- $225.23= lose $1036.04

Result: $213.96

 

Remember that we have another $255 in free bets for a similar strategy.

 

If you didn’t want to wait six months for the UEFA Champions League to conclude (or PSG to be knocked out), then you can apply the exact same method to horse racing, or another sporting event. With horse racing, you’ll find these opportunities every race day.

Lastly, you could also lay off more or less of your free bets on the Exchange, depending on the option you like for each event. If you have a strong opinion that proves accurate, you could make more profit.


What Other Promos Does Neds Offer?

Baring in mind that bookmaker promotions change week to week, most of their current offers provide free bets for futures markets. These ones are worth participating in.

Before the first game of the 2017/18 NBA season, there were four promotions like the one below, creating $80 of free bets to have on the NBA Championship.

 

Plus there’s a $50 Superbowl offer.

All you have to do is place a bet on the head to head market of the relevant game(s).


How Do I Choose Who To Back?

If we haven’t found a strong opinion from an expert on the Betfair Hub, we look to back the odds that are closest to the Betfair Exchange. That minimises our exposure to corporate bookmaker margins and also provides a LAY opportunity.

For example, if the Cavs were $1.50 with Neds and $1.54 with Betfair, we could have a $20 BACK bet with Neds and a $20 LAY bet with Betfair.

We’re essentially collecting a $20 free bet for several dollars.

If you did that across the four NBA games and select one NFL game, you’ll have $130 in free bets. That’s only half of their available promotions during one particular week.


And How Do I Use The Free Bets?

We apply the same strategy. Again, without a strong opinion we look to find a selection on Neds that closely matches Betfair.

The closer that Neds fixed prices are to Betfair, the more profitable. Like our PSG example above, quite frequently you’ll find odds that match or exceed the Exchange.


Conclusion

Whilst Neds’ sign up offer has been reduced, it’s still appealing. The $505 free bet is a great starting point and the new bookie has additional promotions to exploit every day.

As we demonstrated, these offers can easily be converted into cash. Simply back selections with Neds and lay them back on the Exchange for risk free profit. The closer the Neds odds are to the Exchange, the more profit you’ll make.


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