Pro Lays: Spring 2018

Lay Betting is Unique to the Betfair Exchange. Every week on The Hub, professional punters from across the country will be nominating their LAY of the week and sharing it.

This time around we are splitting it into 2 x tournaments.

Spring Season One: 8 weeks – Wednesday 5th September – Wednesday 24th October

Spring Season Two: 8 weeks – Wednesday 31st October – Wednesday 19th December

Check out the Betfair Exchange for the latest odds.

Spring: Season One

Macbet –

John McLeod – @macbetjohn – Doomben Race 1 #1 Capitulate

McLeod Says: “There was nothing wrong with Capitulate’s win last time for the new stable but has found quite a strong little race and has come up odds on in the Market. We haven’t got a lot between three horses in this race so have to take him on at the odds.”

Winning Edge Investments –

John Lawson – @Johns_Analytics – Doomben Race 1 #1 Capitulate

Lawson Says: “Won nicely first up over 1350m at Ipswich. Steps up to 1650m here which might be suitable but I have a couple ahead of it in the market so definitely think it’s unders at current price of $2.15 and happy to be against it.”

Dickos Mailbag –

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag – Cranbourne Race 1 #3 Zoology 

Dickens Says: “Poison odds in an interesting maiden for a horse which has failed at $1.20 and $4.40 this prep alone. It does look the most likely winner, but I can’t go near the current price. Not sure how focused Mark Zahra is on Wednesday’s, he rode a bit rusty a few weeks & hopefully the champion jock is off his game again. I’ve had something small on Foot Foot E/W.”

Winning Edge Investments –

Lachlan Mosley @BlackBookRacing – Murray Bridge Race 2 #9 So We Are

Mosley Says: “Lovely debut 3rd when closed hard late. Looks to have some upside but worried about a track bias and lack of speed in the race. Might have to settle back from the outside gate and the run might be left too late.”

The Race Club –

Tony Lorch – @11AK111 – Warwick Farm Race 2 #1 Ranier

Lorch Says: “He has drawn 9 from 9 & only being a short run to 1st turn, there is a chance he hits it 3 wide & working. He is also giving 5 & 6.5kgs to two of his main dangers, they being Nakeeta Jane & Bring The Magic, who both look to be suited by the 1400 & should get nice runs in transit.”

Winning Edge Investments –

Mark Rhoden – @cotchinsoda – Warwick Farm Race 6 #2 Esperance

Rhoden Says: “Was disappointing as an odds-on favourite last start, and has come up pretty short in early betting again today.  He’s giving away weight to the untapped Chabreet, and there’s plenty of others who could win the race if they found their best, so he’s worth opposing at a short enough price.”

Racing Rant –

Marc Lambourne –  @justideal – Warwick Farm Race 7 #12 Palmateer

Lambourne Says: “Back from a Saturday race when assisted by a strong tempo. Her other Sydney metro references are exceedingly plain.”

Champion Bets –

Trevor Lawson –  @lunchandpunt – Cranbourne Race 6 #1 Reserve Street

Lawson Says: “Has four good ratings in his career but they are all on the Pakenham Synthetic. His grass form is only average. Had every chance at Bendigo last start when well held in run home after having run of the race. Is stepping out to 1600m for 1st time also which may be a negative.  Happy to oppose here.”

The Race Club –

Adam Curkpatrick – @adamcurkpatrick – Murray Bridge Race 6 #2 Golden Lustre

Curkpatrick Says: “There is speed drawn throughout in this and Golden Lustre draws widest of the on-pace brigade. With that pressure up top, I think she’s more than vulnerable, with strong finishers in Gougers and Vein Choice sitting off and likely to come over the top.”

Punting Form –

Shane Baker – @PuntingForm – Belmont Race 3 #6 Final Hearing

Baker Says: “First starter with the Williams/Pike combination, so should stay relatively firm in the market. Drawn a wide barrier and out of the sire Reset, therefore imagine it going back towards the rear and trying to run on. Should be being aimed at longer distances, so can’t imagine them pushing too hard here.”

“Scenic Charm trialled well, Wakan Tanaka has experience and race fitness on its side, and City Circle may appreciate the step up to 1200m, having finished off quite well over 1100m at Northam. Happy to take on Final Hearing as the dominant favourite.”

Macbet –

John McLeod – @macbetjohn – Sunshine Coast Race 6 #6 Monaco Snob

McLeod Says: “Had a lot of favours last time when we had something on him at good odds. Has come up second favourite here at $4.40 and will have to come from the back again. Risk at the price.”

Punting Form –

Shane Baker – @PuntingForm – Balaklava Race 3 #13 Mutheera

Baker Says: “First Starter with the McEvoy Kah combination, so a good chance of being over-bet. Deep in the red in early markets with some other lightly raced runners engaged who have already shown enough ability to be winning a maiden race. Mutheera has drawn the outside barrier, so it may be asked to do a bit early on. No place for the feint hearted; let’s see if we can get Mutheera beaten.”

Winning Edge Investments –

Mark Rhoden – @cotchinsoda – Canterbury Race 3 #5 Gentle Persuasion

Rhoden Says: “Thought this race was particularly even and could make some sort of case for all seven runners having a chance.  Gentle Persuasion is nicely drawn and gets J McDonald but I’m happy to oppose her at a short price.”

Winning Edge Investments –

Lachlan Mosley @BlackBookRacing – Balaklava Race 1 #9 Waikato Express

Mosley Says: “Been racing consistently of late but his placings have come at $61 SP and $7 SP prices. That’s all well and good but just can’t touch it here at $2.30. Especially with some strong stables in the race. “

Winning Edge Investments –

John Lawson – @Johns_Analytics – Balaklava Race 4 #8 Sparrows

Lawson Says: “Showed promise early in her career with a placing in town and then a Gawler maiden win but hasn’t managed to fill the frame in 6 subsequent runs. Is up against a couple of sharp ones in this and happy to oppose at the current price of $4.80.”

Ratings2Win –

Paul Daily – @PaulD01 – Canterbury Race 6 #5 Excellent Design

Daily Says: “Resumes here off a 229-day spell. In two career starts to date has posted a metropolitan win and a second at the provincials but has failed to do anything special on the clock either overall or sectionally. Has had three short course trials in preparation for this so no doubt will be forward enough but on my market I have her significantly longer than the current $2.80 quote and on that basis I’m comfortable opposing her today.”

Dickos Mailbag –

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag – Bendigo Race 6 #12 Steel Prince. 

Dickens Says: “Steps up in grade from BN64 to Bm78 having started $2.40 in the Bm64. This will be it’s it’s 3rd go at 2400m this prep, The horse was perfect in condition last start at Sandown. Zahra jumps off and Dean Yendall gets on. Expect it runs top four but can’t have it Favourite. Horses like Zilbiyr drop in grade and carry same weight after not being suited last start. Bling Dynasty was almost the run of the meeting two and a half weeks back at Moonee Valley, it can improve, suited from barrier 3 with Damien Oliver on. Fontein Lad is also flying. I’ve marked Steel Prince a $6 chance.”

Racing Rant –

Marc Lambourne –  @justideal –  Canterbury Race 3 #5 Gentle Persuasion

Lambourne Says: “Deep into first preparation plus a 7 day backup renders her jaded for today’s short course assignment.”

Champion Bets –

Trevor Lawson –  @lunchandpunt – Bendigo Race 5 #9 Global Sanction

Lawson Says: “Ran moderately in its first preparation, then worked home nicely 1st up last prep over this trip. Before winning over 1700m second up. Needs to have improved its rating significantly to justify the early morning short quote. Looks to go map back which looks another negative.”

The Race Club –

Adam Curkpatrick – @adamcurkpatrick – Balaklava Race 7 #6 Manuel

Curkpatrick Says: “Smart gelding resuming for McEvoy. Draws wide, which isn’t the biggest issue with the chute start but does create the query of where he gets to in the run. Can be forward but a chance of working. Goes back and he’ll need a good tempo to pick the on-speed runners up, which he doesn’t look to get. Too short to chime in with a couple of other smart runners in Desert Lashes and Lope de Capio resuming.”

The Race Club –

Tony Lorch – @11AK111 – Canterbury Race 1 #6 God Of Thunder

Lorch Says: “Is 1st up and trialled well leading into this, but it got lost at his only start at this track last prep. He is expected to press early, but if he doesn’t find the lead, or gets pressured for it, there are a couple of smart maidens in this, that can win it, namely Altair & England, with a couple of the others not hopeless either. I think he is a bit short considering there is a bit of depth to this field.”


John McLeod – @macbetjohn – Ipswich Race 1 #5 Let’s Go Bobby

McLeod Says: “Only had the one start and went fair. Likely to drift back to last here in a slow run race which is a major concern. Happy to bet against at the $3.70 on offer.”

Punting Form –

Shane Baker – @PuntingForm – Ipswich Race 6 #7 Smartypy

Baker Says: “Won a low 900m maiden at the Gold Coast having its first start for Chris Munce (ex-Bjorn Baker) at its most recent outing. Strikes a wet track at Ipswich stepping up to 1200m, which is another world compared to 900m and 1000m races. Importantly there are a couple of other runners which look like they may be able to test it here. To be ridden by J Lloyd, so should continue to attract support. Happy to lay Smartypy as the pronounced favourite.”

Winning Edge Investments –

Mark Rhoden – @cotchinsoda – Kensington (Randwick) Race 4 #1 Cormac

Rhoden Says: “Won well enough in the same class last start, but he’s had a very long preparation and you’re taking a short price ($2.50) about him producing his best in consecutive starts.  Admittedly it’s not the strongest race of all time, but there’s a few in it capable of challenging him if they bring their best today.”

Winning Edge Investments –

Lachlan Mosley – @BlackBookRacing – Ballarat Race 5 #7 Arohata

Mosley Says: “Missed as favourite last start in BM58 grade and now we are expected to take $2.30 in a BM64 today?  Is an honest customer but just don’t like the price on offer in these low level staying contests.”

Winning Edge Investments –

John Lawson – @Johns_Analytics – Ipswich Race 1 #1 Black Mountain

Lawson Says: “14-start maiden who ran an improved race last time in a similar event to this but was sent out at $71 that day so it’s hard to be taking the $3.80 in this event. I have it ranked third and will be against it today.”

Champion Bets –

Trevor Lawson – @lunchandpunt – Ballarat – Race 4 #4 Skidman

Lawson Says: “Won Warracknabeal Maiden running similar times and sectionals to 0-58 race over 1200m on same day.  Sat wide and was strong late, comes back in trip here to 1000m which looks a negative. Several others have better figures here so I’m keen to lay it at the early short quote.”

Dickos Mailbag –

Jack Dickens – @dickosmailbag – Ballarat Race 9 #5 See Me Exceed

Dickens Says: “Deep race that lacks pace, marked the horse $4.50. Think Noel Callow’s a chance of getting lost here and forced to make a move against the pattern of the day. Looks a tricky day.”

The Race Club –

Adam Curkpatrick – @adamcurkpatrick – Ballarat Race 6 #4 Unlimited Ability

Curkpatrick Says: “The form behind this gelding is sound running second to Nariko over 1100m who has since come out and won well in a BM70 at Sandown over 1000. However, there is potentially a bit of pressure up front and every chance he’ll have to work to cross or the risk of being posted. First try on a good surface and a few runners in Boss Coni (who finally draws a barrier) fresh, Sundarbans (coming back from an even effort at group level) and Ruchla (if they do go along) who all look to get favourable runs. I think Unlimited Ability has too much against it to warrant it’s short price in the market.”

The Race Club –

Tony Lorch – @11AK111 – Kensington (Randwick) Race 3 #6 Bandol

Lorch Says: “Bandol is second up here off a win in a 1000m maiden at Hawkesbury, where she had a nice run in transit, beat little & only won by half a length. Today, she steps up to 1150m against horses with solid city form. She has come up $3.50 fav against three horses that have good city midweek form and two others that won their maidens in good style.”

Racing Rant –

Marc Lambourne – @justideal – Kensington (Randwick) Race 4 #1 Cormac

Lambourne Says: “Consistent midweek horse, but his potency is reserved for Warwick Farm and looks vulnerable at Kensington after a long preparation.”

Ratings2Win –

Paul Daily – @PaulD01 –  Ipswich Race 3 #8 Last Order

Daily Says: “Making his QLD debut here off a long 343 day spell. Has changed stables since her only start when she failed to do anything of substance that could see her justify the current $2.80 quote. Has had two trials here (plated on both occasions) and was racing keen in both after showing no early speed. Happy to risk at the current price.”

related articles

BetSmart Ratings

Identify value bets with BetSmart from The Rating Bureau Horse Racing Ratings.

Read More

Racing Prediction Model

Our Data Scientists have been working on a Horse Racing Tips model. The Racing Model analyses up to 30 ...

Read More

Greyhound Ratings Model

Our Data Scientists have been working on a Victorian greyhound racing model using a deep data set from Greyhound ...

Read More