EXPERT POLITICS TIPS: AUS FEDERAL ELECTION

Get the latest Politics betting advice and tips ahead of the 2022 Australian Federal Election. Find Politics betting analysis & betting strategies on the Hub.

The Australian federal election will take place on the 21st of May 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia. The Liberal Party’s Scott Morrison? Or Labor’s Anthony Albanese? Our Politics Betting Analyst will look into multiple Politics betting markets offered on the Betfair Exchange.

Click here to visit the Betfair Exchange 2022 Australian Federal Election markets.


POLITICS EXPERT TIPS | 2022 AUS FEDERAL ELECTION

Politics Betting Markets | Federal Election

Less than a week till election day and there has been a further clear move towards Labor winning and forming government after 21 May.

Currently $1.30 from $1.41 last week and $1.83 at the start of the election campaign, Labor have attracted the bulk of punters bets. The Coalition is out to $4.20.

Punters appear to be reacting to public opinion polls which continue to show Labor with a substantial lead around 54% to 46%, which if repeated on polling day would see it win comfortably.

When betting on the election outcome, watch out for a series of fresh polls during the week, including on Friday night when the influential Newspoll result will be released.

The hot topics in the campaign continue to favour a change of government – cost of living pressures, rising interest rates, aged care, childcare costs and climate change figure prominently as issues for voters and with less than a week to go, these will remain front and centre of voter’s minds.

Betting Strategy

Watch the release of polls during this week.

Labor remain strong favourites but if any of the polls show Labor dropping below 52%, the election race will tighten. If the polls show Labor remaining at 53% or more, even allowing the statistical margin of error for polls, Labor will shorten as it will pick up seats from the Coalition, which will also be hit with the likely loss of a number of seats to Independents. It may be a question of the Coalition losing seats not just to Labor but the minor parties, meaning it will be pressed to form government.

Wager cautiously in this final week – voters have to make up their mind. Labor are still very likely to win and even $1.30 can be attractive if those polls show it 6 or more points ahead of the Coalition.


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Politics Betting Markets | Type of Government Formed

If the latest polls are accurate, Labor are on track to win around 80 to 85 seats in the 151 member House of Representatives and therefore form a majority government, without needing the support of any of the Independents or minor parties.

Over the past week, the market for a majority Labor government has narrowed marginally from $1.60 to $1.57. It was $2.50 at the start of the campaign.

As noted previously, this market is being framed around the four possible outcomes:

A Coalition majority – where they win 76 seat or more in the 151 member House of Representatives.

A Coalition minority – where they win fewer than 76 seats but form government with the support of Independents and minor parties.

A Labor majority – where they win 76 seats or more.

A Labor minority – where they win fewer than 76 seats but form government with the support of independents and minor parties.

As mentioned above, Labor are on track to win a significant number of seats as are the minor parties and independents.

This is why a majority Coalition government, currently out to $12 is very unlikely. Even a Coalition minority government, where it relies on the minor parties for support, is unlikely and priced accordingly at $6.00.

Which brings back the two very likely outcomes – a Labor majority or a Labor minority at $4.20.

The polls continue to show the Coalition parties on track to win around 60 seats only. And as was the case, a Labor majority is the most likely election outcome and at $1.57, relative to the Labor win at $1.30, is attractive.

Back a Labor majority at $1.57.

Link to ‘Type of Government Formed’ market on the Betfair Exchange. 


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Politics Betting Markets | Individual electorates | Seat of Kooyong

Kooyong, currently held by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg with a 6.7% margin, is one of the most hotly contested electorate. He is facing a serious challenge from Independent Monique Ryan and the broader distaste of the Morrison government more generally.

With such a high profile and a very visible local campaign, Mr Frydenberg is likely to attract last minute, wavering voters.

Mr Frydenberg has been drifting in the last two week, moving from at $1.76 to now be $1.85 in the past week. Independent candidate Ms Ryan remains around $2.10. Kooyong is one of the most liquid markets on Betfair.

Betting Strategy

We continue to see Mr Frydenberg a likely winner, despite the recent drift.

BACK: Coalition at $1.85

Politics Betting Markets | Individual electorates | Seat of Goldstein

Goldstein in Melbourne looks lost to Liberal incumbent Tim Wilson who is facing a strong challenge from Independent Zoe Daniel.

Ms Daniel has firmed from $1.88 at the start of the campaign to around $1.54 last week and now $1.37. Ms Daniel has been running a very high profile and has a small army of supporters campaigning for her, while Mr Wilson has been floundering without a main focus to retain support.

While individual seat polling is not reliable, some of the polls have Ms Daniel at least 10 percentage points ahead of Mr Wilson.

Betting Strategy

This was one of best election bets and even at the short odds, it still looks to be a ‘special’ at $1.37.

BACK: Independent at $1.37+

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