PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP: GOLF BETTING TIPS

The preview and golf betting tips for the 2022 Players Championship with Betfair’s Golf Model. Includes course analysis, keys to success and player bets for the Players Championship. Golf betting tips and advice are online now!

The Players Championship is the most illustrious event on golf’s PGA Tour and is widely known as the unofficial fifth Major. Played at TPC Sawgrass in Florida, The Players’ features the iconic island green on the par 3 seventeenth hole.

Last year’s champion Justin Thomas returns to defend his crown against world golf’s biggest names including Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland. These players are making their next stop on the road to the Masters Tournament at Augusta National.

Click here to view the market for The Players Championship on the Betfair Exchange.

DID YOU KNOW?

Betfair’s uniquely designed Golf Model assesses every player on form and suitability and weighs their chances against Betfair markets to help you pinpoint value betting opportunities. The Golf Model’s betting tips are a proven source for big-priced winners.

They include Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($140) to win the 2019 Andalucia Masters, Daniel Gavins ($140) in the 2021 ISPS Handa World Invitational and Luke List ($95) to win the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open.

What will the Golf Model find in the Players Championship this year?

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THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP 2022 | GOLF BETTING TIPS

Overview

The Tour heads to its spiritual home at Ponte Vedra Beach this week for the first big event of the calendar year. The venerable TPC Sawgrass will host 144 of the absolute cream of the crop for the Players Championship. It isn’t just the quality of the field giving rise to that moniker this year, there is a monumental $20 million dollar purse on offer, with $3.2 million going to the winner. To put that into perspective, Jon Rahm pocketed a measly $2.25 million for taking out the US Open last year.

While the cutline is set at the regular 65 plus ties, the tournament introduced a unique playoff format in 2014 – instead of the usual sudden death down the 18th, players replay the final three holes with their aggregate deciding the tournament. In the event of a tie, the infamous par-3 island hole becomes the scene of a sudden death pitch and putt showdown.

The classic par-3 17th is one of many holes featuring very much in-play water hazards scattered all over the 7,256 yard track. The Pete Dye design is all about risk and reward trade-offs – even the top finishers will probably be posting a DB at some stage over the week. Club choice off the tee will be critical, with driver an option on most holes however the penalty for waywardness is usually a penalty stroke rather than hitting from the long grass.

Hit it long and straight and you’ll still be hitting some of the most difficult short iron shots on Tour, with bunkering and water punishing misplaced efforts while the speedy greens often repel even an accurate approach. Organisers were brutal with their final round pin positions last week and we’d expect more of the same given the drama it produced at the Arnie.


Keys to Success | Players Championship

As you’ve probably guessed from reading the qualitative preview, accuracy is at an absolute premium this week – players simply cannot afford to blaze away around this track. The length also means that an accurate drive doesn’t need to be a long one so we’re seeing some significant course fit bumps for the short hitters.

In addition to our generic course fit overlays, we’ve got a wealth of player specific course performance to give our model an extra edge. While these adjustments aren’t large, they’ll often be the difference between making and play and not. We don’t just look at historic finish position, but how much better than model expectation a player has performed at this course over the years – the more rounds they have played the bigger the potential adjustment.

The three key standouts are Adam Scott, Serge Garcia and Si Woo Kim. Kim in particular absolutely loves it here but his shorter history means he isn’t getting quite the same bump as the veterans.


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Betting Markets

Rahm is once again a big favourite, with last year’s winner JT starting a ways back from the gun Spaniard in the markets. Rahm is copping a bit of a hit from our course and history overlays and isn’t worth a punt in our opinion. JT and Morikawa are also well under the odds.

Volume this year has been absolutely massive and we’ve already seen numbers traded on this event you would’ve only seen at tee-off of a Major last year. COVID has been an absolute boon for the sport and has brought with it huge interest in punting on it. We expect this influx of new bettors to bring with it an increase in value dug up by a model that looks well beyond the traditional finish position and cursory stats that most amateur punters will be leaning on.

Our early plays from yesterday are still mostly available and market movements have allowed us to nab some value on a master of this track.


Player Bets | Players Championship

Daniel Berger

We’ve been loading up on Berger quite often of late and he did everything but win it for us last time around. We actually think playing against a field of this quality will work in his favour, as he won’t be facing the pressure of being the class player.

His form is undeniable and he has a solid history on the track, which isn’t surprising given it’s a great fit for his strengths.

BACK: Berger for 0.5 units at $34+

Russell Henley

Having turned pro 10 years ago, Henley has had an up and down career. He’s shown signs of a breakout on a number of occasions but never really managed to take his game to the next level. After a solid 2021 campaign he looked like he might be heading for another return to mediocrity but has really hit his straps this year.

After a filthy third round at the World Wide Tech back in November, he’s managed to almost completely remove poor rounds from his game, losing strokes to the field only four times since.

This level of consistency sets up a great platform for some positive variation and we think he’s primed to overcome his awful history on a track that really should be a good fit.

BACK: Henley for 0.2 units at $95+

Louis Oosthuizen

Last year could’ve been so much different for the perennial runner up. The guy posted two second places and a third in the Majors yet he’s rarely spoken about on a regular week. The anguish of yet more almost victories in big events seems to have taken its toll somewhat, with his form taking a sharp dip after his runner up at the 3M.

However, a closer look shows that his form drop off has been driven almost entirely by poor putting, while the much more important (from a predictive perspective) off-the-tee play has been trending upwards.

Putting has a way of working itself out very quickly and if his flat stick can get hot for a week his underlying game is strong enough to beat any field.

BACK: Oosthuizen for 0.2 units at $70+

Si Woo Kim

He didn’t quite squeeze into our early plays, but the market has done us a solid and bumped up the price on offer. The youngster won here back in 2017 and posted a top-10 finish in the last installment so he knows his way around the layout.

His form took a bit of a dip towards the end of 2021 however he’s recently been trending back in the right direction driven by improvements in off the tee play as a result of improved accuracy – perfect for this track.

BACK: Kim for 0.1 units at $85+

Sergio Garcia

While he’s certainly past his best, Serge is still playing very consistently at an elite level. His accuracy off the tee has been costing him, which isn’t ideal for this layout, but he’s hitting fairways at a similar clip to last year when he racked up yet another top-10 finish at this event.

Serge’s record is rock solid here and he is receiving one of our biggest course history bumps.

While we’d love to back him for a place, there’s basically no volume outside of the win markets at the moment so we’ll have to target the very tasty overlay available there.

BACK: Garcia for 0.1 units at $110+


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