NZ Racing: Tips, Odds and Expert Previews

The NZ Racing analyst has been involved in the New Zealand racing industry for decades and joins the Betfair Hub to provide his analysis and tips for all major meetings of the NZ calendar.

This includes all meetings featuring a Group 1 race, alongside other major meetings, such as the Karaka Million.

Utilise Betfair Live when betting on NZ racing for up-to-the-second price flucs, weighted average price, best tote price, projected BSP and more.

A max-bet for this supplier is 10 units.


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23 January — Karaka Million Day — Ellerslie

Group 3 ALMANZOR TROPHY

#2 Explosively

Brilliant debut winner who was brave in defeat two starts back when holding on for third despite losing a plate. Capable of setting terms out in front here and giving them something to catch in the final 200. He was a little wayward at his last start so the scope for improvement is certainly there.

Main Threats

Need I Say More has been in super form this campaign, winning two of four with the best of the three-year-old crop in opposition. Babylon Berlin may have won just one four-horse race but she caught the eye when going down by small margins at her next two starts.


Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Explosively for 5 units

GROUP 2 WESTBURY CLASSIC

#4 Levante

Star mare whose wins have to be seen to be believed. She has won five of her seven starts and although she couldn’t quite catch Avantage on New Year’s Day, there has been no other horse who has managed to run better sectionals at Ellerslie this season than the ones she posted up that day. Steps up to a more suitable 1400 metres on Saturday.

Main Threat

Levante would have to make a mistake at the start to be denied this but if there is one horse who could put a break on the favourite it is the talented Group 1-winning mare 3 Travelling Light.


Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Levante for 10 units

KARAKA MILLION 2YO

#5 Sneaky Shark

The only one of Te Akau’s five runners not to have won a race but the Capitalist colt has been close-up in all three starts. He was quickening nicely at his last start but just got too far back to make an impact on the line. Is held in high regard by the stable, and if he can get a touch of luck from the wide barrier, he is capable of upsetting a couple of his more fancied stablemates.

Main Threats

Te Akau’s four other runners in the race. The stable has a stranglehold on this race, winning the last four editions.


Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Sneaky Shark for 5 units

GROUP 3 CONCORDE HANDICAP

#15 Entriviere

Four-year-old mare out of the Te Akau stable who has won three of her four starts since starting out in September. Few horses have run the sort of sectionals that Entriviere managed to post when bolting in to win by four lengths on Boxing Day. In fact, star mare Levante is the only horse in recent meetings to have run out her final 800 metres faster, and it was by only one tenth of a second.

Main Threats

Festivity is the other of Te Akau’s two mares in the race. She has won four of her five starts, including an impressive win at her last start when swooping on them late.  Julius has an incredible record at Ellerslie, winning six of his eight starts here. He only just went down to Avantage in the Railway on New Year’s Day.


Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Entriviere for 10 units

KARAKA MILLION 3YO CLASSIC

#1 Aegon

Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman-trained gelding who has made an outstanding start to his career. The unbeaten son of Sacred Falls won the Group 2 Hawke’s Bay Guineas at his second start before taking out the Group 1 2000 Guineas at just his third career start. While all three wins have been impressive looking victories, they’re all backed up with equally impressive final 400 and 200 sectionals.

Main Threat

Amarelinha is out of the all-conquering Te Akau stable and has made up for her debut runner-up finish by winning her next two, including a big win in the Eight Carat on Boxing Day. She absolutely bolted in that day and will be a major force in this if she is still on the improve.


Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Aegon for 5 units


Current results

Total Units Staked: 327.00

Total Units Returned: 410.12

ROI: 25.42%


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