NZ Racing: Tips, Odds and Expert Previews

The NZ Racing analyst has been involved in the New Zealand racing industry for decades and joins the Betfair Hub to provide his analysis and tips for all major meetings of the NZ calendar.

This includes all meetings featuring a Group 1 race, alongside other major meetings, such as the Karaka Million.

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20th March — New Zealand Oaks Day – Trentham


1 – Waisake

Allan Sharrock-trained gelding who has been very impressive in recent starts, winning three of his last four including the Wellington Cup at his last start. What I love about this runner is his ability to attack the line regardless of whether it has been a genuinely run staying contest. The 2600 metre distance of the St Leger should suit the six-year-old right down to the ground and his record at Trentham (5s:3w:0p) is excellent.

Main threat

3 – Lincoln King

Genuine stayer who is another get-back-and-run-on type. Just needs a strong tempo to be fighting out the finish.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Waisake for 8 units


1 – Coventina Bay

Talented mare who has won seven of her 12 starts. She’s a lot like Levante in that she is slow out of the gates but has an incredible finish on her. Her closing sectionals at Ellerslie on New Year’s Day, her only other start at 1600 metres, were sensational. She’s since bolted in for a win over 1400 metres and I am excited to see what she can produce on the roomy Trentham track in the first of five features on New Zealand Oaks Day. The Shamexpress five-year-old is out of a High Chaparral mare so you would expect that the further she goes the better she’ll get.

Main threat

3 – Sinarahma

She put in a stunning performance here in the Group 1 Thorndon Mile to finish just one-and-a-half lengths off Melody Belle despite giving the field a five-length head start when the gates opened.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Coventina Bay for 6 units


2 – Brando

Savabeel colt who was disappointing in a hit-and-run mission to contest the CS Hayes last start but his previous form can’t be faulted. In his five starts before heading to Flemington he won three, and finished second in the other two. One of those runner-up efforts was in the Levin Classic at Group 1 level where, despite being seriously impeded at the turn, he flew home to get within half a length of the winner.

I am also choosing to subscribe to the theory that jockey Opie Bosson had the choice between Brando and Need I Say More this week, and although he got it wrong last week, he’s usually very close to the mark.

Main threat

1 – Need I Say More

Brando’s stablemate who has won six of his eight starts. He was only a length or two off the very best of New Zealand’s three-year-olds in his two defeats.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Brando for 5 units


6 – Puysegur

Tony Pike-trained mare who was an impressive winner when resuming at Hastings a fortnight back. The Fastnet Rock mare was blocked for a run at the 200-metre mark but once she spotted the gap, she displayed outstanding acceleration to burst through for a stylish win. She won second up during her last preparation so we can expect that there’s improvement left in her for Saturday’s assignment.

Main threat

3 – Live Drama

The South Island sprinting form has stacked up at Trentham in recent years and this mare is in the form of her life. She’s won her last four races, and has been winning them with ease.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Puysegur for 7 units


1 – Amarelinha

Te Akau filly who has been in exceptional form against the best of New Zealand’s three-year-old crop. She went close to winning the Karaka Million 3YO Classic back in January but was ultimately undone by the talented Aegon who, arguably, had an easier run home after Amarelinha scouted wide for her run. She’s won both of her starts since stepping up over staying trips, including a demolition job in the Group 2 David & Karyn Ellis Fillies Classic at Te Rapa last month.

Main threat

2 – Needle And Thread

Put in a much better effort in the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup Week to finish just a nose behind Amarelinha after being well beaten by her in the Fillies Classic. She will prove to be a danger to Amarelinha if she’s allowed to dictate terms out in front.

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) — Amarelinha for 10 units

Current results

Total Units Staked: 506.00

Total Units Returned: 614.98

ROI: 21.54%

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