NZ Group Racing: Expert Previews

Championbets are no strangers to the Betfair Hub and they’ll be providing their NZ Racing previews for group racing around the racing calendar across the Tasman.

Professional punter Chris Robinson is the man behind the analysis. His NZ Tips membership started in February 2013 and has won every year since. He is an expert form analyst and experienced professional punter who exploits bookmaker mistakes.

For the latest odds on NZ Racing, go where the value is and head to the Betfair Exchange.

 


Go where the value is for New Zealand Group Racing on the Betfair Exchange


Track

Slow 9 but improving. Rail true.

Weather forecast

Friday- showers then fine.

Saturday- fine.


R8 Captain Cook Stakes (WFA Group 1)

Major Players

 Jon Snow

Matthew Cameron / M&A Baker & Forsman

Class horse of the field. Solid in Melbourne this spring without getting all the favours. Big chance.

Ocean Emperor

Rosie Myers / G Hennessy

Good all this preparation and should be thereabouts if getting in ok from the draw.

Our Abbadean

Sharif Rusof / Jamie Richards

Very good at Hastings over the carnival. Looks a solid winning chance at reasonable odds.

Consensus

Sam Spratt / Stephen McKee

Handy at best. Not disgraced in Sydney through the spring but probably best at 2000m on a good track.

Danzdanzdance

Opie Bosson / C&M Gibbs & Bradley

Quality mare very good through Hastings. The query is two months since her last run.

Darscape Princess

Johnathan Parkes / Fraser Auret

Promising mare. Does need to find a few lengths on exposed form but Auret/Parkes combo has to be respected.

Dark Princess

Lisa Allpress / Jeff Lynds

Up and comer who gets conditions to suit.


Overview

The state of the track will play a major part, but on the assumption we get a Dead 6 to Slow 7 I think the Hastings spring form is the one to follow.


Betting Strategy

 BACK – Jon Snow for 1.5 units, minimum price of $3.50

 BACK – Our Abbadean for 0.6 units, minimum price of $8

 BACK – Danzdanzdance for 1.5 units, minimum price of $3.50

Riccarton Park – Track- Dead 4 – Rail = True

Friday –fine/possible showers

Saturday –fine/possible showers


R7  G1 NZ 1000 Guineas 3yof 1600m   

Speed- slow/even on paper but typically this race is run at genuine tempo.

Major Players

1 – Melt: Last start 2nd to 2000 Guineas winner Madison County is the best form. Top pick.

2 – Xpression: Close 2nd to Avantage at Hastings 2nd up is good form, last start was muddling, has been down south for a while obvious chance.

3 – Media Sensation: Last start win rated only average off the front, 2nd up run when ridden cold was very good though, stable flying.

5 – Secret Allure: Under the radar but has ability, any rain helps.

10 – Beam of Light: Could feature with rain.

Betting Strategy

On exposed form there are only 4 chances with Melts last start 2nd the strongest form, Secret Allure is probably overs and with the inside possibly off by race 7 could surprise.

 BACK – Melt for 1.8 units, minimum price of $2.75

 BACK – Secret Allure for .5 units, minimum price of $10


R9  G3 NZ cup 3200m 

Speed – Probably even hard to know with so many trying the trip for the first time but history suggest it will be solid.

Major Players

10 – Mental Telepathy: Stayed on strongly here in the Metrop. Comes through the same race Gobstopper won last year. Baker/Forsman/Cameron.

12 – Felaar: Solid here last Saturday. Set for this a long way out. As long as the rain stays away will be tough to beat.

7 – Dee And Gee: Hard to ignore last win here off the front. Could run them ragged again.

14 – Richard of Yorke: Average last start but has 2 mile form last year in Aus. Needs to improve though

16 -Monarch Chimes: Quality Jumper ran home strongly last start could surprise.

Betting Strategy

Always a bit difficult knowing who will stay the 2 miles but I’m going to concentrate on those with the lower weights who are probably still ahead of the Handicapper.

 BACK – Felaar for 1.5 units, minimum price of $3.50

 BACK – Mental Telepathy for 1.25 units, minimum price of $4

 BACK – Monarch Chimes for .35 units, minimum price of $15

 BACK – Dee and Gee for .4 units, minimum price of $12


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