EXPERT RACING TIPS: ELLERSLIE

Rail: +6m

Track Conditions: Good 4

The new surface at Ellerslie has looked to play in to the hands of on-speed runners to date. With the rail out 6m here, I suggest this trend will continue and horses will be hard to run down off the front.

1. Tycoon Prince
5. Foreverintime
3. Chicago Jack
4. Hakashu

A scamper for the 2YO’s here and with minimal exposed form, I am happy to let this one go through to the keeper. #1 TYCOON PRINCE has a big wrap on him and #5 FOREVERINTIME appears to be handy also but there are too many unknowns for me to bet in this event.

5. Pour The Wine
2. Riodini
3. Is That So
4. Lingjin Xionfeng

A strange race here. Outside of the favourite, not many have form at the distance and are either dropping back from 1600m or well out of form. #5 POUR THE WINE continues to step up and should go close , #2 RIODINI is the class horse of the field and wouldn’t shock me to see him win & #3 IS THAT SO is the sprint specialist but lacks a touch of form in recent runs. Happy to spectate once again.

2. Overdrawn
3. Burgundy Iff
8. Savacat
7. Miss Martini

She has Group 1 form from her last start and a sensational record at this distance. This is a deep mares race but she continuously steps up when she is asked. She has put in a nice effort at the trials since that and this looks a great race for her to get some much deserved Group success. The favourite LA CRIQUE will be hard to beat but the first up factor may play against her here.

4. Churchillian
8. Rudyard
12. Dubai Diva
1. Our Alley Cat

Initial suggested play the #4 Churchillian a non-runner.

5. Merchant Queen
7. Just A Floozie
8. No Rain Ever
3. Tanganyika

This is a cracking contest with a number of chances, but with the market the way it is, I can’t have a bet. #5 MERCHANT QUEEN looks like she will lead and take a world of running down, #7 JUST A FLOOZIE has stacks of ability and could be a very special horse, but is tactically disadvantaged here the way I expect the track to play and #8 NO RAIN EVER has done nothing wrong to date and was very impressive resuming last start. A great contest, but I can’t find the edge in the market.

15. Orchestral
3. Just As Sharp
2. Ascend The Throne
5. Interlinked

This is a great race for the 3YO’s and raging favourite #15 ORCHESTRAL looks like she should have a touch of class on this field. With the favourite aside though, I think there is value in backing #3 JUST AS SHARP to PLACE here. His last start 3rd behind Orchestral at the 1600m was arguably the run of the day and rising to 2100m in this should be an ideal next step. The pattern is likely going to be against his racing style, but if he can produce a run like he did last start, anything above $2.30 to place is a bet for me.

6. Trust In You
8. Terra Mitica
3. Dionysus
18. Nom De Plume

Another deep race with plenty of value on offer. #6 TRUST IN YOU has really announced himself at this level in his last two starts and a repeat dose would put him right near the pointy end of this race. With just 52.5kg I think we will see him settle closer than midfield and he looks like a stayer on the rise. A great EACH WAY bet for me at the current quote. Outside of that, #8 TERRA MITICA has form to suggest she is very smart, #18 NOM DE PLUME will relish the 2400m here and #3 DIONYSUS has the wins at this level to make him hard to ignore.

12. Arabian Songbird
13. Kealoha
4. Rebecchi
1. Espresso To Go

Plenty of chances here. #12 ARABIAN SONGBIRD is all class and back on a firm track will bounce back. #13 KEALOHA will benefit from the rise to 2100m and could have a bit of ability. Look for #4 REBECCHI to bounce back from his vet issues post last starts failure and #1 ESPRESSO TO GO stays in the same grade after posting a tough all the way win over 1800m last start so should be there abouts in this finish.