NSW Election – Expert Betting Preview

The next NSW Election is scheduled to be held on Saturday 23rd March 2019 to elect the new Parliament of New South Wales. All 93 seats in the assembly are up for grabs and half the seats in the council as well.

Go where the value is on the NSW Election and head to the Betfair Exchange.


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On 23 March, there is a state election in New South Wales.

If the recent polling is any guide, it will be a reasonably close, hard fought election as the current Coalition government, led by Gladys Berejiklian taking on Labor and its new leader, Michael Daley who replaced Luke Foley in November 2018 when he resigned amid allegations of sexual harassment.

To win office, Labor need a uniform swing of 4.3% to pick up the 13 seats in the 93 member lower house of Parliament.

Recent opinion polls indicate that a swing of 5 to 7% is in the offing, which if reflected on polling day, would see Labor win with a comfortable majority.


The Issues

The Coalition has been in power for 8 years and risks turning off a significant number of voters due to a number of missteps and hugely unpopular decisions. Coalition members of Parliament have resigned during this term over corruption issues, which is obviously a negative for the government.

Making matters worse, the light rail system in Sydney is running years behind schedule, it is massively over budget and the decision to knockdown and rebuild sporting stadiums has been met with voter disdain. During this term of government, the Coalition parties have been trounced in a number of by elections brought on by scandal and the resignation of local members.

The Labor Party, despite the tribulations of the Coalition government, is considered vulnerable and may yet fall short of winning. It is fair to say the talent pool in the State leadership group is underwhelming which will work against it on election day. Labor also has a tainted legacy of corruption during its previous term in office, even of that was more than a decade ago and all the personalities involved in that hopeless government are long gone.

Labor promises are, at this stage, very safe with a focus on transport infrastructure spending. It is likely to play a small target strategy during the campaign to limit the risk of making a mistake or leaving it open to criticism.

Federal politics will overlap the State election and here Labor stand to benefit by a percentage point or two, with the Coalition in Canberra on the nose with the electorate.


The Odds

The market does not reflect the opinion polls. Some of the early support for the Coalition appears to the based on a lacklustre Labor Party and the risk it will just fall short of the numbers need to win, rather than it being a show of support for a good government.

There are likely to be a series of new polls in coming weeks which will be essential in judging the prospects for both sides.


Betting Strategy

At this stage, Labor appear to be great value at around $1.90. The momentum is against the Coalition government and the waste of tax payer money on the Sydney rail project and stadiums are set to be hot campaign issues that will work in Labor’s favour.

Labor can do well and win by keeping relatively quiet and reminding voters of these problems and focussing on the Federal government’s lacklustre standing.

Barring a major shock event in coming weeks, Labor are value at odds above $1.50.

 BACK – Labor to win the NSW Election.


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