Best Bets
Rugby League Analyst
Betting Strategy
LAY NEW ZEALAND at up to $1.70
The Warriors were well handled at home by Manly last week and they are 11-21 against the spread on the road off conceding 22-plus.
Rugby League Analyst
Betting Strategy
BACK GOLD COAST +8.5 at $1.65
The Titans have covered 15 of 25 against Manly and won the last two.
St George Illawarra Dragons v New Zealand Warriors
The Dragons are one of the better bets this week. Home underdogs of four or more in the opening eight rounds cover at 65% and the Dragons have covered 12 of 16 in Wollongong. As an underdog of at least four at the ground, the Saints have covered seven of their last eight. The Warriors were well handled at home by Manly last week and they are 11-21 against the spread on the road off conceding 22-plus.
Betting Strategy
BACK ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA +6.5 @ $1.65
The Dragons have covered 12 of 16 in Wollongong. As an underdog of at least four at the ground, the Saints have covered seven of their last eight.
LAY NEW ZEALAND at up to $1.70
The Warriors were well handled at home by Manly last week and they are 11-21 against the spread on the road off conceding 22-plus.
Parramatta Eels v Dolphins
The Eels play their annual home game in Darwin and this year they host the Dolphins. Travelling has not served Parramatta well of late with just four covers in their last 14 games outside of NSW. The Eels have also covered just seven of 21 at night. The Dolphins will no doubt hurt from losing Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow but they have covered seven of 11 off conceding 26-plus.
Betting Strategy
BACK DOLPHINS +7.5 at $1.75
The Dolphins will no doubt hurt from losing Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow but they have covered seven of 11 off conceding 26-plus.
Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers
The Tigers are a red-hot go of covering the huge start against the Panthers this Saturday when the two teams square off in Bathurst. Remarkably the Tigers have played the Panthers well of late with the winner of the last two wooden spoons covering the last four against the reigning three-time premiers. The Tigers have covered nine of 15 getting a start of 14 or more. Favourites of 12.5 or more cover at just 43% in day games.
Betting Strategy
BACK TIGERS +14.5 at $1.80+
The Tigers have covered nine of 15 getting a start of 14 or more.
Gold Coast Titans v Manly Sea Eagles
The Titans showed some sharp improvement last week with the decision to drop Tanah Boyd unsurprisingly improving the team. Gold Coast getting the big plus at home are the best at home. Home underdogs of four or more in the first eight rounds of the year cover at 65%. The Titans have covered 15 of 25 against Manly and won the last two. Manly have been poor on the road, covering just three of 11 as a favourite away from Brookvale.
Betting Strategy
BACK GOLD COAST +8.5 at $1.65
The Titans have covered 15 of 25 against Manly and won the last two.
Brisbane Broncos v Canberra Raiders
Brisbane are entitled to absolutely wallop Canberra when the Raiders hit town on Saturday night. The Broncos have won six of seven against the Raiders at Suncorp. This is a bang-up spot too for Brisbane. The Broncos have covered seven of eight at Suncorp and are on an 11-2 cover record at night. They are 15-8 against the number off a win of 13-plus. Brisbane are a fantastic play this week.
Betting Strategy
BACK BRISBANE -7.5 at $1.70
Canterbury Bulldogs v Newcastle Knights
Team selections are the biggest issue in this with the Knights almost certain to be without Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai. The Knights have certainly disappointed. The Bulldogs have covered their last three day games and are playing significantly better with the plan to give Kikau and Crichton more early ball. Keep a good eye on team lists but no Ponga and the Knights are no dice.
Betting Strategy
BACK CANTERBURY at $1.75+
The Bulldogs have covered their last three day games and are playing significantly better with the plan to give Kikau and Crichton more early ball.
Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys
Cronulla have dominated this matchup and there is no reason to think that won’t continue here. The Sharks are 14-3 straight up and against the spread when playing the Cowboys and most notably, North Queensland are awful bets when travelling. They have covered just nine of 26 interstate. With the Sharks covering 15 of 24 at Shark Park, Cronulla are the bet.
Betting Strategy
BACK CRONULLA -2.5 at $1.75+
The Sharks are 14-3 straight up and against the spread when playing the Cowboys and most notably, North Queensland are awful bets when travelling.
NRL SEASON PREVIEW TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Betting Strategy
BACK: Penrith Panthers Premiership at $3.00+
This is best back for Premiership. Penrith are in rarefied air here as they look to become the first team since the famous St George team that won 11 straight to win four premierships on the trot. There is certainly no reason they cannot. While they have lost Stephen Crichton and some solid backups, this Panthers team that has lost just 16 games across the last four years and brings into the season the most formidable roster. They sit at least a tier above any other team and no team can lift for September football like the Panthers. They are almost certain to finish in the Top 4 with their 2-5 record in close games suggesting they will improve on their regular season win total, setting them up for the best possible September run.
BACK: Sydney Roosters Premiership at $7.00+
This is best value for the Premiership. The only team with a roster anywhere near as stocked with talent to the Panthers is Trent Robinson’s Sydney Roosters. There remain some questions on the backline and the team’s ability to score points but there is no more formidable or deeper pack in the premiership this year than that of the Tricolours. The Roosters recruited magnificently, bringing in Dom Young and Spencer Leniu, and they are as well coached as any in the premiership. The Chooks are all in for 2024.
LAY: Brisbane Premiership at $7.00 or shorter
Best lay for the NRL Premiership. The list of losing Grand Finalists to return and win a premiership has been exceptionally short in the NRL Era: Melbourne have achieved the feat three times, most recently in 2017, and Penrith, when they won the first of their titles. Most suffer from a shocking hangover. Parramatta missed the finals after losing the 2022 Grand Final. Brisbane severely overachieved last last year, they have lost key figures Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Kurt Capewell and are unlikely to have the dream injury run they enjoyed last year.
BACK: Melbourne Storm Top 4 at $2.20+
Best back top 4 market. Melbourne has really been undervalued this season. While they are a club with no depth, they have an outstanding spine (arguably best in the premiership) and a very good starting 13. They made the Top 4 last year, a place they have finished in 11 of the last 13 years. Melbourne are not the dominant force they were only a few years back but they remain an elite team.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 4 at $3.00+
Best value top 4 market. Cronulla’s draw is the best in the NRL and is so good that the difference between the number of total wins from last year they face and the second team is the same as that between the second easiest and toughest draws. It is a historically easy draw and the Sharks with their roster and starting base will be right in the mix for a Top 4 berth.
LAY: Brisbane Broncos Top 4 at $2.80 or shorter
Best lay top 4 market. Brisbane are a team to be against this year. They overshot their real win tally by nearly two full victories and they went 4-2 in close games so last season’s finishing spot was overinflated. With so many losses and a likely regression in injury luck, it would not shock to see the Broncos fall out of the Top 4.
BACK: Cronulla Sharks Top 8 at $1.50+
Top 8 best back. Cronulla are the most undervalued team in the premiership this year and are far more likely to finish inside the Top 4 than they are to miss finals. The Sharks have a stable team with no changes to their best 13 but more importantly they have been blessed with the kindest of draws, where they are the only team in the competition to play teams from last year’s Top 8 nine times. Cronulla are not missing the finals this year with even a below-average injury toll.
BACK: Redcliffe Dolphins Top 8 at $2.25+
Top 8 best value. Wayne Bennett has done a magnificent job building the Dolphins into a force that will be contending for a finals berth in just their second season. They have recruited magnificently, bringing in Tom Flegler to an already tough back and Herbie Farnworth and Jake Averillo to massively upgrade the club at the centre position. They can build momentum with a kind early season draw. Huge overs.
LAY: Newcastle Knights Top 8 at $2.50 or shorter
Best lay top 8. Newcastle managed to get hot over the backend of last season to make the finals but they are not a team that should return to the finals. They have lost top tryscorer Dominic Young. Their halves situation is a mess. They had a great run with injuries last year. This just seems like a run built on a very fragile and unsustainable base.
National Rugby League – NRL Tips and Predictions
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