Your Expert NRL Tips for 2021

The NRL Analyst is back sharing his NRL Tips on the Betfair Hub for the 2021 season. One of the sharpest rugby league punters in the country who has his own NRL betting database, the Analyst is a bettor whose tips you won’t want to miss.

He’ll be providing his three best NRL tips for every round of the 2021 season, including the finals.

For an alternative resource, our Data Scientists’ NRL Predictions Model will have outputs for every game this season.

Also, make sure you check out the Betfair Exchange for up to the minute NRL odds.


Put these expert NRL tips to use on Australia’s only peer-to-peer betting exchange.


Penrith v Newcastle

There are plenty of big favourites this week and Penrith strike as the best of them. Double-digit favourites are 9-4 against the spread while Penrith are 8-2 against the number when favoured by 10 or more points. They return to home turf where the market really has not caught up yet.

The Panthers are 21-11 against the spread on home turf while they are 15-6 against the number at home off a win. Newcastle have covered just 6 of 17 off conceding 16-plus. Penrith should be able to put the hammer down on a Knights team with some key injuries.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Penrith -16.5

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Wests Tigers v Manly

Both teams come off significantly improved performances last round. The Tigers pushed the Rabbitohs to the brink before a Tom Burgess try gave the two points to the Bunnies. Manly stunned the NRL in Tom Trbojevic’s return with a 36-0 thump job on the Titans. Manly can more reasonably be expected to back that effort up.

The Tigers have covered just 4 of 12 off a loss and just 7 of 22 when playing a day game. Manly have covered 9 of 13 off scoring 30-plus and have coerced their last two as a favourite away from Brookvale. The Sea Eagles are better structured with Trbojevic and the Tigers will find it hard to get back up again after that disappointment.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Manly -5.5

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Sydney Roosters v St George Illawarra

The Roosters have dominated this matchup and with a line that looks very skinny shapes as one of the better bets of the round. Trent Robinson’s team have won five straight and 13 of their last 16 against St George Illawarra. The Roosters have won their last five by more than eight points. This is a fabulous spot for the Tricolours.

The Roosters are a quality 15-6 against the spread at the SCG including 5-1 against the number off a loss. The Chooks have covered 17 of 25 off a defeat. The Dragons have covered just 4 of 11 when an outsider of less than a try. Confidence is high with this one.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Sydney Roosters -3.5

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Brisbane v Penrith

Big favourites are absolute money this year when it is a top-shelf team against a bottom-shelf team and that is exactly the scenario we have now. When Top 6 teams from last season play Bottom 6 teams from 2020 the top teams have covered 12 of 14 this year. Double-digit favourites have covered nine of 11 this year.

This is just an awful matchup for the Broncos. Penrith are 17-8 against the number off conceding 10 or fewer and they are the best defensive team in the premiership. The Panthers are also excellent as a big favourite, covering eight of nine laying double digits including four strate on the road.

Brisbane have covered just seven of their last 23 and just three of nine getting 10-plus points. Lay the start with complete confidence.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Penrith -26.5

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South Sydney v Wests Tigers

As noted above, big favourites are the way to bet in games where an elite team takes on a bottom-feeder and this is clearly one of those occasions. Souths come off just a total humiliation of the Broncos while the Tigers inexplicably turned in a diabolical display on such an important occasion against the Cowboys that they were booed from halftime until they got back to the sheds after the defeat.

Souths are 9-3 against the handicap in their last 12 at ANZ and have covered 20 of 31 in Sydney off a double-digit win. The Tigers have covered just 3 of 11 off a loss.

Betting Strategy

BACK — South Sydney -16.5

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St George Illawarra v New Zealand

St George Illawarra have been the major surprise package this season. They have won four of five games and sit in the Top 4. Three of those wins though have come as a sizable outsider. The pressure is on this week as they go in heavily favoured against a Warriors team that has covered 10 of 13 as an underdog and 25 of 38 off a loss.

The Dragons have covered just 4 of 12 when favoured by more than a try and just one of five at Kogarah. The Warriors can win this and should be covering.

Betting Strategy

BACK — New Zealand +6.5

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Canterbury v Melbourne

Canterbury have not scored a single point in their last three games. They have scored fewer points than any team since Glebe in 1928. They now come up against a team that has built a dynasty on defence.

The Storm are going to annihilate the hapless Bulldogs. Big road favourites are no concern this year. The elite road teams against the bottom feeders are winning by an average margin of just over 25. Melbourne are 10-4 against the spread since 2008 when favoured by more than 18 points.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Melbourne -24.5

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Sydney Roosters v Cronulla

The Roosters have covered five straight against the Sharks and despite some key injuries, look primed to do it again. The Roosters come off a dominant win over the Warriors, which featured the debut of rising star No.7 Sam Walker. The Roosters have covered 15 of 20 at the SCG and are a magnificent 13-3 against the number when favoured by more than a converted try.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Sydney Roosters -7.5

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South Sydney v Brisbane

This season there has been 11 games between the Top 6 teams from last year and the bottom six teams from last year, which are essentially the top and bottom again in 2021. The elite teams have gone 10-1 against the spread with an average winning margin of just under 27 points.

Souths have won and covered three of four against Brisbane since Wayne Bennett switched clubs in 2019 and he clearly loves beating his former side. The Broncos have covered just 7 of their last 22.

Betting Strategy

BACK — South Sydney -20.5

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Manly v Penrith

Penrith have conceded just 10 points all season and a Manly side with a very poor backline is going to struggle to compete with a complete Panthers team. Manly have failed to cover a game this year and they are really at the whim of Penrith here. The new rules are making it very difficult for poorer teams to compete and that is the situation we have here.

Penrith have covered 15 of 22 against Manly and they are an excellent 15-8 against the line off conceding 10 or fewer and 10-6 against the number when a double digit favourite. Manly have covered just 11 of 27 off a loss of 13-plus.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Penrith -18.5

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Melbourne v Brisbane

Melbourne’s dominance of Brisbane cannot be understated. The Storm have seemingly taken great delight in not only beating Brisbane but embarrassing them over the last 15 years. The Storm have won 30 of the last 35 and since 2008 they are an astonishing 20-6 against the spread with an average winning margin of 16.1.

The Storm have covered 12 of 19 off being held to 12 or fewer. Brisbane have covered just 7 of their last 21 and just 5 of 18 away from Suncorp. This has rout written all over it.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Melbourne -20.5

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Sydney v New Zealand

The Sydney Roosters have a dominant record at the SCG but that won’t mean much with their two starting halves sidelined to serious knee injuries. Luke Keary and Lachlan Lam face extended stints on the sideline and that is set to slow the Roosters train down.

The Warriors have covered 10 of their last 11 as an underdog and 8 of 9 off conceding 20 or more points. The Warriors are tough and they play the Roosters well. The plus looks a strong play.

Betting Strategy

BACK — New Zealand +6.5

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South Sydney v Sydney Roosters

The Sydney Roosters have been the standard-bearers this year. They have not met a lot of opposition but they have put both Manly and the Wests Tigers to the sword. They have been incredibly impressive and clearly motivated by their disappointing end to last season. This is a great spot for the Chooks against their arch-rivals. They are 7-1 against the line off scoring 40 and 7-1 against the line when favoured by less than a try. The Roosters have covered seven of the last 11 against the Rabbitohs and should make it 12.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Roosters -3.5

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Canberra v New Zealand

The line in this one is far too big. The Warriors are in a good spot and have been playing some strong Rugby League. Even with some key injuries and suspensions, they look to be a strong play. The Warriors have covered nine of their last 10 as an underdog, five on end getting a start of eight or more, seven straight day games and eight of 11 off a loss. The Raiders have been overrated by the market at home and the Warriors are legitimate triers. The plus is a highly confident bet.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Warriors +11.5

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Penrith v Melbourne

Melbourne is always at their most dangerous off a loss and Penrith cop them this week off same. The Storm rolled the Panthers in the Grand Final last year and won with much greater ease than the final margin suggests. It was a continuation of the domination the Storm have had over the Panthers, winning 19 of the last 22 including six of seven at Penrith. Melbourne have covered 10 of 15 at night off a loss and they have covered 12 of 18 off scoring 12 or fewer. The Panthers have not conceded a point this season but face a mighty task against a scorned Storm team.

Betting Strategy

BACK — Storm to Win at $2.02

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Current Results

Total Units Staked: 18.00

Total Units Returned: 19.14

ROI: 6.36%


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