Your Expert NRL Tips for 2021

The NRL Analyst is back sharing his NRL Tips on the Betfair Hub for the 2021 season. One of the sharpest rugby league punters in the country who has his own NRL betting database, the Analyst is a bettor whose tips you won’t want to miss.

He’ll be providing his three best NRL tips for every round of the 2021 season, including the finals.

Also, make sure you check out the Betfair Exchange for up to the minute NRL odds.


Put these expert NRL tips to use on Australia’s only peer-to-peer betting exchange.


Penrith v South Sydney

Penrith are set to jump favourites of less than a try against South Sydney as the Panthers chase their third premiership and first since 2003. Souths are looking to win their second title since 1971 after claiming the 2014 premiership. The total opened at 40.5 and has already been bet down to 38.5.

The Panthers should be at full health with Brian To’o and Tevita Pangai Jnr expected to play. Souths are also in good health, but will be without star fullback Latrell Mitchell. The Rabbitohs will bid farewell to coach Wayne Bennett and star halfback Adam Reynolds. The Panthers are looking to atone for last year’s defeat.

Recent Grand Final history provides a strong lead here. Favourites have covered just two of the last seven. The under has also been the norm, hitting in 11 of the last 14 deciders.

Penrith are deserving of favouritism, but trends and the situation of the very popular Bennett retiring and Reynolds moving on will have an impact here. Souths were very impressive in beating off Penrith in the opening week of the finals. Strategically and motivationally, Bennett holds a major advantage over rival Ivan Cleary.

Souths hold form off a win and they are particularly strong as an underdog off a big win, covering seven of nine as an outsider after winning by more than 18. The Rabbitohs have covered 19 of 31 as an underdog.

The knock on Penrith is that they have been bad travellers. Even though they are here, it is hard to suggest they have not been impacted more than most of the quality teams who have had to relocate. The Panthers have covered just 9 of 27 interstate. They have also covered just four of 12 off a win.

While Souths are a high-scoring team, the under is the clear total points play. This is a huge under spot for the Panthers. They are 17-4 under when they play interstate and the under has hit in 10 of 15 when Penrith are off scoring 10 or fewer. This match has all the hallmarks of a tight defensive struggle.

Betting Strategy

BACK — South Sydney +3.5

BACK — Total Points Under 38.5

Link to markets

 

The Clive Churchill Medal is awarded to the best player in the Grand Final. There have been some very clear trends emerge since the award was first given in 1986 to Peter Sterling.

Unsurprisingly, winners have tended to come from victorious teams with only four players winning from the losing side (although this has happened twice in the last eight years).

Key position players have won nine of the last 12 Clive Churchill Medals, but a hooker has not won the award since Shaun Berrigan in 2006. Middle forwards are not hopeless though, winning four times since 2004.

No centre or winger has ever won the gong. Nearly every winner has played either Origin or international football prior to winning the award. And those who have found trouble – particularly off the field – are overlooked.

That leaves the following as plays for this year:

Nathan Cleary (Penrith): Looks almost a good thing if Penrith succeed. Playing better than Luai. Plays the most important position in the game. Runner-up in the last two Dally M Medals, so stands out. Ticks all the boxes.

Adam Reynolds (South Sydney): The biggest overs in the market, Reynolds is a consistent player who is likely to stand out in a low-scoring affair with a tremendous kicking game. He is a quality organiser and arguably the best goalkicker in the game. Played Origin.

Kurt Capewell (Penrith): Queensland Origin rep so ticks arguably the most important box. Doesn’t play in the middle but has been playing close to 80 minutes and working incredibly hard. Made 50 tackles last week.

Tom Burgess (South Sydney): England international who has been Souths’ most punishing forward of late. He stands out with his look and his brother has won the award. Blowout hope if Souths win.


Betting Strategy

BACK — Nathan Cleary (1.5 units at $4.0 or better)

BACK — Adam Reynolds (1.5 units at 11.0 or better)

BACK — Kurt Capewell (0.5 units at $26.0 or better)

BACK — Tom Burgess (0.5 units at $41.0 or better)

Link to market


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