South Sydney v Brisbane Broncos

Thursday April 26, 7:50pm – ANZ Stadium

Brisbane have dominated South Sydney since the Broncos entered the competition in 1988 with just nine losses in the 36 meetings. That domination has extended until recently with the Broncos winning the last five, the last three by margins of 20 or more. The Broncos have been hit hard by injury but typically respond with their backs against the ball. The Broncos have covered 12 of their 18 as a road outsider and 12 of their last 17 off a loss.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brisbane + 4.5

North Queensland Cowboys v Canberra Raiders

Saturday April 28, 7:35pm – 1300SMILES Stadium

Canberra are significantly over the odds according to the Betfair NRL Model and that all lines up. The Cowboys had dropped five straight before ending that run of outs with an unconvincing victory at home against the Titans in one of the worst games of the year. The Raiders have been poor for much of the year but get a good matchup against the slow and aging Cowboys. The Raiders have covered 16 of their last 24 as a road underdog and 25 of their last 40 overall on the road. The Cowboys have covered just 4 of their last 12 after conceding 14 points or fewer. The last three matches between these teams in Townsville have all been determined by a margin of 8 or fewer.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Canberra + 7.5


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