NRL Season 2018: Round 18 Analysis

Penrith v Cronulla

Friday 13th July 6.00pm AEST Panthers Stadium

It is stunning that Penrith go into this clash as an underdog against Cronulla with all three Origin stars likely to back up after being named on the reserves bench. The Panthers have an outstanding recent home record, covering 12 of their last 15 at Penrith Stadium and 16 of 24 night games at the ground. Penrith are 10-4 against the line at home after conceding 14 or fewer. Cronulla have covered just six of their last 18 games when favoured by the market.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Penrith + 1.5

Canterbury v South Sydney

Saturday 14th July 3.00pm AEST ANZ Stadium

Canterbury have covered all eight times they have been an underdog at ANZ of more than a converted try since 2015 and there is no reason to think they won’t continue that run getting a monster start against Souths. The Rabbitohs are flying on the back of eight straight wins, leading the premiership, but favourites of 6.5 or more riding a winning streak of six or more are 10-22 against the line dating back to 2008. The Bulldogs are coming off the back of their two best attacking performances of the year and have covered seven of eight at ANZ after conceding 30-plus.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Canterbury + 10.5

Brisbane v New Zealand

Sunday 15th July 2.00pm AEST Suncorp Stadium

Brisbane have won seven of their last nine matches and are expected to continue their hot recent form against a Warriors team that was humiliated on the road to Penrith, losing 36-4 against an understrength Panthers. The Broncos have won five of their last six against the Warriors at Suncorp and have covered seven of their last 11 at Suncorp off a win of 13 or more. Brisbane have covered 12 of their last 18 at Suncorp after conceding 10 points or fewer.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Brisbane -2.5

Gold Coast v Sydney Roosters

Sunday 15th July 6.30pm AEST Cbus Super Stadium

Monster home underdogs are always a bet and the Titans fill that angle this week getting a start of 8.5 at home to the Roosters. Home underdogs of 8 or more are 61-39 against the line since 2011 with those coming off a performance that netted 10 points or fewer 15-8 against the handicap. The Titans have covered nine of 10 since 2013 as a home underdog of 8.5 or more. The Roosters are poor as a road favourite, covering just 11 of their last 27, while road favourites of 6.5 or more off a loss have covered just 26 of 79 since 2008.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Gold Coast +

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