North Queensland v New Zealand

 Stadium

North Queensland have dominated New Zealand at home with 11 wins in their last 12 at Townsville. Overall the Cowboys have won four of five against the Warriors. Paul Green has finally pulled the trigger and dropped some outside backs with Justin O’Neill joining Lachlan Coote in the reserves. The Cowboys have covered four straight as an outsider and are 10-6 against the line at home after being held to 14 or fewer. The Warriors haven’t covered consecutive games since Round 5 and have covered just 2 of 11 as a road favourite.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – North Queensland +1.5

Canterbury v Gold Coast

Canterbury have won three straight against the Gold Coast and can continue that record against the NRL’s worst defensive team. The Titans have conceded 26 or more in six of their last eight games and that limp defence may just kick Canterbury’s insipid attack into gear. The Titans have covered just two of their last 10 as an interstate outsider and will be missing Queensland prop Jarrod Wallace. The Bulldogs have been close in their last three and look to have their foot on the till.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Canterbury -2.5

Parramatta v South Sydney

 Stadium

Parramatta and South Sydney are teams sitting at opposite ends of the ladder but the Eels are without question the value in this one. Home underdogs of 8 or more off a win have covered 18 of 22 games dating back to 2008, an angle that has proven near infallible. The Eels have also covered 8 of 12 as an underdog at ANZ. The Eels attack certainly showed more rhythm with Mitchell Moses sidelined and Corey Norman running the show. With three straight wins over Souths, Parramatta are excellent value with the big start.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Parramatta +9.5


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