Canterbury Bulldogs v New Zealand Warriors

Friday March 17, 6:00pm – Forsyth Barr Stadium

The model rates Canterbury as 5.4-point favourites against New Zealand yet a strong price can be obtained on the Bulldogs getting 6.5 points. Canterbury have been hit by injury with Will Hopoate and Kerrod Holland out hurt but it may not be as bad as it seems with Brad Abbey and Marcello Montoya to debut, giving the Bulldogs some much-needed speed out wide. The Warriors have won just one of their last eight against the Bulldogs in New Zealand away from Mt Smart and have failed to cover six straight when favoured by 4.5 or more. The Bulldogs have a strong record on the road off a loss with 16 covers in their last 24.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Canterbury +6.5

Gold Coast Titans v Parramatta Eels

Friday March 17, 8:05pm – CBUS Super Stadium

The loss of Corey Norman is a monster blow to the Eels and it is surprising the Eels are so heavily favoured on the road. Parramatta have started the season hot with two road wins but they have come against two teams bound for the bottom four. The Titans have also copped their share of injuries but losing Jarryd Hayne may actually be a positive for the Titans. Home underdogs getting a start of 4.5 or more in the opening four rounds of the year have covered at over 82% since 2008 while the Titans have won six of their last eight against Eels.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Gold Coast +5.5

Penrith Panthers v Sydney Roosters

Saturday March 18, 7:00pm – Pepper Stadium

Penrith head home for the first time this season and it should be a big welcome with the Panthers legitimate title contenders for the first time in a long time. A monster clash against the undefeated Roosters should prove a quality draw. The Panthers got played into form after an embarrassing Round 1 loss to the Dragons by dishing out a thumping to the Tigers at Campbelltown. The Roosters have been impressive in patches but have switched off. The loss of Blake Ferguson is a blow to the Chooks. Penrith have a strong record against the Roosters on home turf and should extend that.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Penrith

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