Cronulla Sharks v North Queensland Cowboys

Thursday May 18, 7:50pm AEST – Southern Cross Group Stadium

The best defensive team in the premiership, Cronulla have not conceded more than 18 points since Round 1 this year. Johnathan Thurston may return for the Cowboys but it is hard to see him being anywhere near full fitness. With the Sharks winning their last two against the Cowboys and playing in such good form, they should be in for a comfortable win.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Cronulla -5.5

New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons

Friday May 19, 6:00pm AEST – FMG Stadium Waikato

Betting in this game is all wrong according to both the model and common sense. The Dragons have won 20 of the 25 all-time matches against the Warriors and New Zealand have not defeated St George Illawarra away from Mt Smart since 2003. With the Warriors having won just three of their last 12 in New Zealand outside of Mt Smart, the only way to bet this game is to side with the Dragons at the line and in head-to-head betting.

Betting Strategy

BACK – St George Illawarra +5.5

Canterbury Bulldogs v Sydney Roosters

Sunday May 21, 4:00pm AEST – ANZ Stadium

Canterbury are very good bet as an underdog, particularly at ANZ, covering four of their last five as an underdog at the ground of more than a converted try. They also typically bounce back well from a poor defensive performance, covering five of their last six after conceding 30 points. The Roosters looked unstoppable against the Eels but have covered just five of their last 12 on the road as a big favourite.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Canterbury +6.5

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