Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game in Round 22 of the 2022 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, NRL expert tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL expert tips for Round 16 of the NRL season are online now!
NRL ROUND 22 | BEST BETS OF THE WEEK
BEST BACK OF THE ROUND: South Sydney Rabbitohs -3.5 at $1.75+
Click here to view Handicap market for Eels vs Rabbitohs on the Betfair Exchange
BEST LAY OF THE ROUND: Cronulla Sharks at < $1.30
Click here to view market for Tigers vs Sharks on the Betfair Exchange
NRL ROUND 22 | EXPERT TIPS
Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm
With so many key playmakers missing from this game and so much on the line, the under looks the bet here.
The under has hit in 15 of 23 games since 2008, with eight of the last 10 failing to top 38 points. The under hits at 60% when Penrith are off a win of more than 20 points, while it has hit in the last three Storm games away from AAMI Park.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Total Points under 41.5 at $1.85+
Click here to view markets for Panthers vs Storm on the Betfair Exchange.
New Zealand Warriors vs Canterbury Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are a vastly improved team but the line of -5.5 points seems too large.
The Warriors have won and covered the last three against the Bulldogs. New Zealand have covered their last three off conceding 48 or more, while they have covered six of eight off a double-digit loss.
The Warriors have played well at Mt Smart Stadium since returning, so happy to bet they will dig in.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: New Zealand Warriors +5.5 at $1.75+
Click here to view markets for Warriors vs Bulldogs on the Betfair Exchange.
Parramatta Eels vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Souths are arguably the form team of the premiership and with their outstanding record against the Eels they shape as one of the bets of the week.
Souths have won and covered five straight against the Eels, scoring 30-plus in each, with all wins recording a margin of more than 14.
The Bunnies cover at 60% off a double-digit win. Meanwhile, the Eels have covered just one of six off a double-digit win.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: South Sydney Rabbitohs -3.5 at $1.70+
Click here to view markets for Eels vs Rabbitohs on the Betfair Exchange.
Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys
The Roosters have an outstanding record against the Cowboys, but it is surprising they are underdogs considering the standard of football they are playing and how inconsistent the Roosters have been.
The Roosters have covered just four of 13 off a win and just five of 14 as a favourite. The Cowboys have covered 14 of 20 this season, including eight of 10 road games.
The speed they play with can cause the Roosters no end of drama.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: North Queensland Cowboys +2.5 at $1.85+
Click here to view markets for Roosters vs Cowboys on the Betfair Exchange.
Wests Tigers vs Cronulla Sharks
The NRL road train heads to Tamworth this week and the Tigers present as value against the high-flying Sharks.
The Tigers were embarrassing against the Knights last week but have typically been reliable plays as a big outsider. The Tigers have covered 11 of 13 when receiving a double-digit handicap and have covered four straight off a loss.
The Sharks, meanwhile, have covered just 18 of 46 off a loss.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Wests Tigers +12.5 at $1.80+
LAY: Cronulla Sharks at < $1.30
Click here to view markets for Tigers vs Sharks on the Betfair Exchange.
Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights
The Broncos are heavily favoured against the Knights but that line is not big enough.
Brisbane have won eight of 12 against the Knights including the last two by 13-plus. The Broncos have covered 14 of the last 18 meetings. With Brisbane covering 14 of 17 at Suncorp Stadium and the Knights covering just 12 of 38 off a win, the Broncos can be bet right up to -21.5 on the handicap.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Brisbane Broncos -17.5 at $1.80+
Click here to view markets for Broncos vs Knights on the Betfair Exchange.
Canberra Raiders vs St George-Illawarra Dragons
Canberra are significantly overvalued in this one.
The Raiders have a shocking home record with just 13 covers in their last 36. They have covered just five of 15 when favoured at home by more than a converted try.
The Dragons meanwhile have covered the last three against the Raiders as well as nine of the last 12. They are playing well enough to beat the team they rolled just six weeks back.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: St George-Illawarra Dragons +6.5 at $1.80+
Click here to view markets for Raiders vs Dragons on the Betfair Exchange.
Gold Coast Titans vs Manly Sea Eagles
Gold Coast are in a particularly bad spot here, covering just three of 15 off a loss and four of 17 off conceding 30-plus.
Manly are not overly enticing as a betting proposition on the road. The strong play in this one, though, is the over.
The over has hit in seven of nine Titans-Sea Eagles matches. It’s also hit in 13 of 17 when the Titans are a home underdog of 6.5 or more. The over has also hit in 31 of 44 when Manly are off a loss.
Betting Strategy & NRL Tips
BACK: Total Points over 47.5 at $1.80+
Click here to view markets for Titans vs Sea Eagles on the Betfair Exchange.
