Your Expert NFL Tips for the 2019 Season

The Expert team at Champion Bets will be providing their best NFL Tips for the entire season, including the playoffs. For all of the prime time games, Champion Bets will have full in-depth previews for each match, regardless of the Conference or Division.

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San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, Feb 3 at 10:30am AEDT

The Niners made easy work of Green Bay for the second time this year with a 37-20 victory on home soil last week. On their way, they rushed for 285 yards on 6.8ypr and added another 77 yards on nine pass attempts.

Meanwhile, in a similar narrative to the week prior, The Chiefs fell behind again, this time 10-0 and then outscored Tennessee 35-14 the rest of the way on their way to a 35-24 victory.

This season the 49ers were successful on 47% of their plays on offence. Whilst allowing a 43% success rate on defence. This highlights their strength as a defensive unit.  Further, this San Fran outfit is plus-seven in turnover margin for the year.

On the slip side, when Mahomes starts under centre, the Chiefs had a success rating of 50% of their offensive plays and a 48% success rate on defence. While they finished the season with a plus-10 turnover rating with 2018 MVP at Quarterback. It’s safe to assume that a clash between Mahomes and the high-powered Chiefs offence and the 49ers defence will go a long way to deciding this game.


Assessing The 49ers

San Fran ran the ball on 52% of their plays this year and they’ll look to leverage that as much as possible here as keeping Mahomes off the field will be key. Their heavy running can also be attributed to game scripts this season, getting ahead early and running the clock, but are more than capable of making big plays through the air when needed.

In games that were decided by four points or less the 49ers passed the ball 58% of the time. They were behind in most of those games and although I think they will win this game there’s a huge chance that they fall behind early. I simply do not see how the Chiefs make the mistake of starting slowly for the third consecutive week.

I also believe that the Niners will need to score at least 27 points to likely win this game.

The 49ers scored about 38% of their potential points this year (assuming each drive is worth seven points – ignoring the two-point conversion). When the Chiefs played teams that scored at least 33% of their points they allowed 35 and 24 to Tennessee, 31 twice to Houston, 28 to Baltimore, 31 to Green Bay and 23 to Minnesota. In other words, they allowed about 29 points per game to those teams. In short, San Fran will have their chances here and capitalising early will undoubtedly be key.


Assessing The Chiefs

Kansas City scored 45% of their potential points this season. When San Fran played those types of offences (over 40%), they allowed Baltimore 20 points (weather impacted game) and 46 to NO. Given that the sample size is just two games, which averages out to 33 points, I’m not reading much into it.

What we can read more into, is that the 49ers only allowed teams to score about 23-24% of their potential points this season. Against teams close to that profile, the Chiefs scored 26 against Chicago, 30 and 23 against Denver (weather and Mahomes injury impacted those games), 26 versus Minnesota and 23 versus New England. That averages out to about 26 points.


Final Verdict

This is a pretty simplistic way to look at the game, but it gives me a final score around 29.5 to 29.5. A more sophisticated model which considers the injuries on both sides of the ball, their opponents and ignores defensive scores gives me San Fran, 27.1-26.5. The oddsmakers have done a good job of making this line about right.

The most damning angle among all this is that against the best defences they faced this year; Kansas City failed to score more than 26 points (they did score 30 vs Denver but there was a defensive score in that game although Mahomes missed the 2nd half). You can backdate this to the year prior and the trend is still there. I’m not reinventing the wheel here, this is been a common flaw of this Chiefs outfit.

On top of that, I always prefer to side with the better defence over the better offence. When I take into account the injuries, my numbers on San Fran show they averaged 30 points a game this year against teams allowing 24 points a game. The real significant difference is on defence where, when healthy, they allowed just 13 points per game against teams averaging 22 points per game. Kansas City, after adjusting for injuries, averages 33 points per game against teams allowing 21 points per game and allow 19 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game.

In a game that the 49ers will look to scrap their way to the finish line, I’m siding with the better defensive outfit.


Betting Strategy

 BACK – 49ers +1.5

 BACK – Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half

16 of the last 21 Super Bowls have scored as many or more points in the 2nd half vs the first half.

 BACK – Team that scores last wins the game

Game figures to be close and if so the last score is likely to win the game. The Yes has covered in each of the last ten SB’s.

 BACK – Jimmy Garoppolo Completetions – Over 19

In close games (games decided by four or less + Atlanta and Arizona that were within four points prior to a last second turnover and score) SF has thrown the ball much more, as described above. Garoppolo has averaged 19.2 completions on the year but in close games he has averaged 23.5 completions. Anything less than 20 is a bet.

It’s Conference Championship week so let’s start with something I like to monitor each year and keep updated. Since 1970 there has been 49 years’ worth of Championship games or in other words 98 games played. A situation I have monitored over the years is to simply play the team with the better defense. In this situation we define the better defense as the team who has allowed the fewest points during the regular season. For this year those teams are San Francisco and Kansas City.

Over those 49 years by simply playing on these teams you would have gone 61-33-3 64.9% ats with one game not applying because both teams allowed the same amount of points. A further breakdown of those games tells us in 20 of those 49 years you would have won both games and in 5 of those 49 years you would have lost both games. In 20 of those 49 years you would have gone 1-1. In the other four years you had a push and a loss, a push and a win and the one year a loss when the other game didn’t apply. So, 21 winning years and 7 losing years calling 1-1 years even if though the juice would be a slight loss.

This situation always serves as a starting point for me but doesn’t force my hand into these teams each year. And, since 2000 it has won both games 4 times, lost both games 3 times and gone 1-1 12 times so it hasn’t been as productive the last 19 years as it was the previous 30 years.

Also, since 1970, when laying less than 10 points the SU winner in these games is 81-4-2 ats. Essentially, pick the SU winner and you have the ats winner as well. Since 2009, this is 16-4 ats so all four losses have come within the last nine years.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, Jan 20 at 7.05am AEDT

The Titans/Ravens yards per play were basically even last week but the final score was a dominating 28-12 victory for Tennessee. Baltimore controlled the ball for about four minutes longer but two turnovers and a stopped on downs by Baltimore led to three Tennessee touchdowns that started at the Ravens 35, 45 and 20 yard lines. Add in another stopped on downs at the Tennessee 18 yard line and an interception on the Tennessee 31 yard line and you end up with a final score of 28-12. Tennessee was successful on 55% of their plays to 45% for Baltimore.

KC fell behind 24-0 and then proceeded to outscore Houston 51-7 the rest of the way. KC out gained Houston 7.6yppl to 5.7yppl dominating both the rush and pass. Houston was also sacked five times. Houston picked up a touchdown after a blocked punt that began their drive at the KC six yard line. KC picked up three straight touchdowns on drives that began at the Houston 42, 33 and 6 yard lines following a great kickoff return, a stop on a fake punt and a fumbled kickoff return. They picked up two other touchdowns on drives that included 15 yards and 24 yards in penalties. KC was successful on 55% of their plays and Houston was successful on 45% of their plays.

Tennessee has a success rate of 52% for games Ryan Tannehill has started on offense. For the year their defense allows a 45% success rate. They are plus five in turnover margin with Tannehill. The two highest rated players on the Titans defense are CB Adoree’ Jackson and DT Jurrell Casey. When the Titans have had both of those players on the field their defense has allowed a success rate of 43% and they haven’t allowed more than 23 points. Jackson played against KC when they played but Casey did not. In that KC game Tennessee was successful on 52% of their plays and allowed KC a 50% success rate.

With Mahomes playing KC has a success rate of 50% on offense and allows a success rate of 48% on defense. They are plus ten in turnover margin. With DT Chris Jones the KC defense allows a success rate of 46% and about 1.5 points less per game.

Tennessee qualifies again, like last week, in a negative playoff situation, which plays against teams playing in at least their third straight road game. That situation is now 23-3-2 and plays against Tennessee in this game. KC is coming off of a couple of impressive high scoring games but that serves as a negative in the playoffs as teams get overvalued. The Chiefs qualify in a couple of negative playoff situations, based on that premise, which are 47-23-1 and 27-4-1 and play against them in this game. This game also qualifies in a 29-12-0 over situation based on their past few high scoring games. My numbers favor KC by 8.5 points and project 53.8 points. When I make adjustments for injuries, etc. for both teams I get KC by 17.9 points and project 58 points.

KC has allowed 23 or more points in six of the seven games they have faced against playoff teams. They are 4-3 SU in those games with only one win by more than seven points. But, like SF, there may be some hidden value in Kansas City because they have played with injuries on their offense as well as bad weather games that have limited their offense.

The Chiefs have totaled 55 or more points in four of the five games between both teams when they have played playoff teams with Mahomes at quarterback. That includes 67 points in the first meeting with Tennessee in Nashville. If Tennessee can run the ball and control the clock like Houston did early in the year and Indianapolis did they can potentially limit the KC offense from being on the field. If Tennessee falls behind they do have the capability to throw the ball and score points so I think the over has a legitimate chance to hit.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chiefs -7 and Over 53


Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Monday, Jan 20 at 10.40am AEDT

The Packers held on for a 28-23 victory over Seattle in a game they led from start to finish. They were out rushed but did out pass Seattle. The Seahawks were was also sacked five times. Seattle was successful on 51% of their plays to 46% for GB.

The 49ers got their defense back healthy and it showed in their total domination of the Vikings 27-10. SF out gained Minnesota and ran the ball 37 times more than Minnesota. The Vikings threw the ball 14 more times and really their only success came late in the game when SF was in a prevent defense. SF out rushed and out passed Minnesota while sacking them six times. SF was successful on 57% of their plays to 30% for Minnesota.

Green Bay has been successful on 47% of their plays and they allow a 47% success rate. They are plus twelve in turnover margin. In their first meeting in SF they had a 32% success rate and allowed a 46% success rate to SF.

SF has a 46% success rate and allows a 42% success rate. SF is plus four in turnover margin. On offense for the Niners, when they have had Joe Staley at LT, George Kittle at TE and since they brought in Emmanuel Sanders at WR, they have had a success rate of 49%. On defense the Niners lost DE Dee Ford after week 11, LB Kwon Alexander after week nine and S Jaquiski Tartt after week thirteen. When they have had all three of those in the lineup their defense has allowed a success rate of just 38% and 12.4 points a game (only one game more than 20 points).

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor SF by 9.5 points and project 44 points using all games for both teams. When I factor in the key injuries for the Niners and only use offensive numbers for games their key players above were available and the same for the defense I get SF by 19.7 points and project 44.6 points. Last week vs Minnesota this latter method favored SF by 14.3 points and 45.2 points.

This likely will be a very tough matchup for Green Bay much like the first go around with the 49ers where GB lost 37-8. The Packers defense is serviceable, especially against teams that are inferior to GB. But, against legitimate teams competing for the SB the Packers defense is still behind the best defenses in the league. That is evidenced by GB allowing 34, 24, 24, 26, 37, 23 and 16 and 10 points (the latter two to Minnesota) against the best teams they have faced this year. Other than the ten points they allowed at Minnesota late in the year the Packers have allowed at least 24 points to four of the best five offenses they have faced. That includes a success rate on defense of over 50%. On the road against the best defenses they have faced this year they have scored 3, 8 and 23 points with a success rate of just 39%. They are averaging just 3.7yps and 3.9yppl in those three games.

The Niners lost Kwon Alexander in the Thursday night game at Arizona in week nine. In games Alexander played the whole game and they had Tartt and Dee Ford, they have allowed more than 17 points once and that was against Pittsburgh which included five 49ers turnovers which gave Pittsburgh great field position. Much like last week against Minnesota, I don’t see GB getting more than 17 points in this game unless SF gifts them points via turnovers. That could happen but that’s not solid ground to go into a game betting GB needing that to happen. On the flip side when SF has had Sanders at WR and Kittle at TE they have scored 22 or more in eight of the nine games and 26 or more in seven of the nine games. The one game they scored less than 22 points was at Baltimore where they scored 17 points against a very good Ravens defense and bad weather.

The SF offense has a lot of variations to it for a team like GB to defend for a whole game and the 49ers defense is too quick and there aren’t enough weapons for the Packers to have success against this defense.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – 49ers -7.5

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

Monday, Jan 13 at 10.40am AEDT

For the season Seattle has been successful on 49% of their plays and are allowing a 46% success rate. The Seahawks are plus 12 in turnover margin.

Green Bay has been successful on 47% of their snaps and allowed a 47% success rate as well. The Packers are also plus twelve in turnover ratio.

LG Mike Iupati is doubtful. DE Ezekiel Ansah, LT Duane Brown, T George Fant, S Marquise Blair and DT Quinton Jefferson are questionable.

GB’s only real concern is DT Kenny Clark who is questionable.

Seattle qualifies in a negative letdown situation following their win last week, which is 23-7-1 and plays against Seattle in this game. My numbers favor GB by 3.8 points and project 43.3 points.

GB is now 21-11-1 to the under in their last 32 with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and the team favored at home. GB is 19-6 ats as a home favorite of less than seven points since 2010 when Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback. Russell Wilson is 16-7 ats as a road dog since he came into the league back in 2012. He is 7-1 ats as a dog of four or more.

The Seahawks are very banged up on their offensive line coming into this game. They lost their starting C Justin Britt back in week eight. LT Duane Brown has missed weeks 6, 7, 16, 17 and last week. Brown may try and give it a go this week but without him Seattle averages just 19.8 points per game instead of 26.9 points per game. So they have been about seven points per game worse without Brown. There is a good chance LG Mike Iupati won’t go either. And to compound the problem, T George Fant who has filled in for Duane Brown is hurt and may miss this game too.

Throw in the loss of WR Josh Gordon who wasn’t having a great year for Seattle but someone opponents had to respect and cover. Seattle has averaged just 17 points per game in the last three weeks without their offensive lineman and Josh Gordon. Seattle has had just a 39% success rate the last three weeks with all the injuries, etc.

GB has allowed more than 24 points in just three games and allows just 19.6 points per game in all games. The Packers have been lucky in that they have stayed extremely healthy on defense. S Darnell Savage missed weeks 5-7 and if you take out those three games GB allowed just 18.8 points per game.

I just don’t see Seattle getting more than 17 points in this game against a GB defense that can put pressure on the quarterback. Yes, Russell Wilson can scramble and elude rushes but GB is likely to put a lot of pressure on Wilson and make it tough for Seattle to move the ball quickly and efficiently. I’m not going against Russell Wilson getting this many points and the situations are definitely in GB’s favor but my numbers don’t quite get me there. I will lean to Green Bay.

There is value on the under and I think it’s worth playing. Temperatures will be in the low twenties at game time. That won’t necessarily impact this game but I know it doesn’t hurt and can only help, if anything.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 46.5


Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, Jan 13 at 7.05am AEDT

Houston is successful on 49% of their plays and allows a successful rate of 45%. They are even in turnover margin.

KC has been successful on 49% of their plays and allows a 46% success rate. KC is plus-eight in turnover margin (plus ten in Mahomes games).

Houston lists several players as questionable such as S Jahleel Addae, TE Jordan Akins, WR William Fuller, CB Jonathan Joseph and WR Kenny Stills.

CB Morris Claiborne is out. DT Chris Jones and TE Travis Kelce are questionable.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor KC by 12.5 points and project 49.2 points.

Will Fuller will be a game-time decision in this game. In games without Fuller Houston’s success rate has been 50% but their yards per pass and play are just 5.9 and 5.6 respectively. With Fuller they average 7.1yps and 5.9yppl. They average just 21.6 points without and 25.6 with Fuller. In games with Tyreek Hill, LT Eric Fisher and QB Patrick Mahomes the Chiefs have been successful on 51% of their plays.

DeShaun Watson has been a tough out on the road as a dog in his brief career. He is 9-3-1 ats as a road dog and has lost just one game by more than seven points. His three losses against the spread were by seven points twice at NE last year 20-27 and earlier this year at Indianapolis 23-30. They were blown out in Baltimore by 34 points earlier this year. In those games against good teams, the Houston defense has allowed 27, 32, 36, 41, 30, 24, 30, 41 and 21 points. They’ve also scored at least 21 points in six of those nine games against the good teams.

Since Andy Reid arrived in KC his teams are 13-2 to the under as a home favorite of more than seven points. They’ve allowed more than 19 points in just two of those 15 games. Partly due to competition but KC had allowed 17 or less in five straight games before allowing 21 to the Chargers in week 17.

However, other than NE, KC has allowed 23 or more points in five of the six games they have faced against playoff teams. They are 3-3 SU in those games with no wins by more than seven points. Houston is 4-2 SU against playoff teams with their only loss by more than two points to the Ravens. Last week’s game may have taken a lot out of Houston with a hard-fought come-from-behind win and having to go to OT.

KC had a lot of injuries early in the year when they faced most of their tougher competition so it’s hard to say how much different they will be against another tough competitor but up to this point they haven’t separated themselves from the competition when facing playoff teams and Houston has proven to be a tough out. They may not win by margin but it’s not often they lose by margin either.

If Fuller doesn’t play that is a big loss for Houston and they will likely be forced to try and grind out another victory at KC like when they won 31-24 earlier this year. KC was missing LT Eric Fisher and DT Chris Jones in that game. Jones tweaked his calf this week and there’s a chance he could miss this game as well. Houston controlled the clock for about 20 more minutes in that game and were balanced on offense both running and passing.

While the numbers slightly favor KC and the under, this is a lot of points to be giving a Houston team who seems to find ways to stay in games.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Houston +9.5


Minnesota Vikings v San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, Jan 12 at 8.35am AEDT

Minnesota has been successful on 47% of their plays and are allowing a success rate of 50%. The Vikings are plus eleven in turnover margin.

SF has been successful on 47% of their plays with George Kittle in the lineup and are allowing a 43% success rate. The Niners are plus four in turnover margin.

For Minnesota CB Mackensie Alexander and S Jayron Kearse are out. WR Adam Thielen is questionable.

For SF DE Dee Ford and Kentavius Street are questionable.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor SF by 9.3 points and project 44.8 points. When accounting for both teams injuries I get SF by 14.3 points and project 45.2 points.

The Niners went through a run where they didn’t have their LT Joe Staley or RT Mike McGlinchey and for a couple of games also were without TE George Kittle. Their success rate is 50% in games they had both tackles and George Kittle. In games where SF has had CB Richard Sherman (missed wk 15), LB Kwon Alexander (missed wk 10 on), S Jaquiski Tartt (missed wk 14 on) the Niners have allowed just a 39% success rate.

The Vikings with Mike Zimmer are just 5-10-1 ats as a road dog in their last sixteen games since 2016. Cousins is 3-6-1 ats in those games. Since 2015 Cousins is 6-22 SU against teams who made the playoffs that year. He is 2-4 SU this year against playoff teams. SF is just 4-17-1 ats as a home favorite since 2014 but most of those teams were bad teams. They are 3-4-1 ats this year as a home favorite so while better still below .500 although injuries contributed to those poor numbers. They’ve scored 22 or more points in each home game this year.

The Vikings have allowed 20 or more points on the road against every playoff team they have faced this year. They’ve also scored 23 or more in three of the four games they have played on the road this year. The Vikings were very good last week in NO and had a great scheme for the Saints. NO was pretty inefficient but Minnesota was somewhat responsible for that as well.

This is a tough assignment for Minnesota to go on the road on a short week and face a rested and pretty healthy 49er team that will be difficult to defend because of what Kyle Shanahan puts together from an offensive scheme standpoint. I also think it will be tougher on the Minnesota offense, which doesn’t have a ton of playmakers and therefore is easier to defend with a pretty healthy SF defense. Cousins isn’t the most mobile quarterback and that could be troublesome against a SF defense that is likely to put plenty of pressure on the Vikings.

The best chance Minnesota has to stay in this game is with turnovers from QB Jimmy Garoppolo, which is certainly possible. Otherwise I don’t know if Minnesota can stay in this game. I think there is some hidden value in the SF number because they’ve had so many injuries during the year that their true numbers don’t show unless you dig deeper into their season.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – San Francisco 49ers -7


Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, Jan 12 at 12.15pm AEDT

Since Tannehill got the starting job Tennessee is averaging a 51% success rate and allowing a 47% success rate. Tennessee is plus two in turnover margin during that time.

Baltimore has a 53% success rate and is allowing just a 43% success rate. They are plus ten in turnover margin.

Tennessee will be without LB Jayon Brown and WR Adam  Humphries. They also list WR Cody Hollister as questionable. Brown is Tennessee’s best linebacker on the team.

The Ravens list TE Mark Andrews and RB Mark Ingram as questionable.

This will be Tennessee’s third straight road game and that sets them up in a very negative playoff situation, which is 23-2-2 and plays against the Titans here as long as the line is less than ten. My numbers favor Baltimore by 18.9 points and project 55.8 points.

Baltimore’s defense has been extremely good since getting back Jimmy Smith and acquiring Marcus Peters, which all happened around weeks 7 & 9 (bye week eight). There have been nine games played in that time and five of those nine were against playoff teams with another game against the Rams who were almost a playoff team. So, they have played six of their last nine games against quality competition.

Baltimore has won five of those six games by seven or more points and four of those six games by 14 or more points. They’ve scored 30 or more in four of those six and 24 or more in five of the six games. And the Ravens defense hasn’t allowed more than 20 points since adding Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters to the lineup. Yes, they allowed the Jets 21 points but seven game on a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. And, NE scored 20 points, but ten of those points came on turnovers deep inside Baltimore territory.

Take those two games out and they haven’t allowed more than 17 points. My numbers for Baltimore have been very accurate and since week eleven the Ravens are 3-1 ats when my number favors them by four points or more from the current line, which is does again this week. That doesn’t include a week seventeen projection of Baltimore by 19.6 points and they won by 18 without many of their starters. Tennessee has scored 20 or more points in every game with Tannehill.

In games where Jurrell Casey and Adoree Jackson have both played they haven’t allowed more than 23 points. Something will have to give in this game and I am more inclined to believe Baltimore can win this game and perhaps by margin. If this line comes down to -9 or better a teaser option for Baltimore would be ideal. My numbers suggest the total is a little low as well. Both teams are likely to run the ball plenty in this game which will limit how many possessions each team gets. That’s standard Baltimore football anyway.

There could be some wind and rain and I look for this total to be bet down come Saturday night before game time, which may open the door for an over opportunity. At the current number there appears to be value to the over but I would like to see the number come down to give us more room for error before I would jump in.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Baltimore Ravens -9.5

Seattle Seahawks v Phildelphia Eagles

Monday, 6 Jan at 8:40am AEDT

The Seahawks had plenty on the line last week at home against SF but came up short 26-21. They were badly outgained in that game 8.3yppl to 4.9yppl, including being outrushed 5.3ypr to 4.2ypr and 11.3yps to 5.4yps. How Seattle kept it as close as the final with a chance to win it coming up six inches short is hard to understand. SF was successful on 52% of their plays to 45% for Seattle.

The Eagles won at NY 34-17 although the final numbers were pretty close with Philadelphia gaining 5.6yppl to 5.5yppl for the Giants. NY outrushed Philadelphia 5.8ypr to 3.9ypr but if you remove a 68 yard Barkley touchdown run the Giants averaged just 2.7ypr and 4.6yppl. Philly out passed NY 6.8yps to 5.4yps. The Eagles were only successful on 39% of their plays to 41% for the Giants.

Seattle has been successful on 49% of their plays and allowed a 47% success rate. Seattle is plus twelve in turnover ratio.

Philadelphia has been successful on 48% of their plays and allowed a success rate of 42%. Philadelphia is minus-three in turnover ratio.

Philadelphia has ruled out WR Nelson Agholor. TE Zach Ertz and RT Lane Johnson are questionable. My best guess is Johnson is more likely to play.

Seattle comes off of a couple of non-cover games but that actually sets them up in a favorable 51-22-3 playoff situation. My numbers favor Philadelphia by 1.1 points and project 46.6 points. When looking at just games against playoff teams my numbers favor Seattle by 4.4 points and project 41.7 points.

Since 2015 Seattle is 14-7 to the under as a road favorite, including 1-0 to the under in the playoffs. Both of these teams appear to have the majority of their defensive players available for this game. But, both teams are hurting on offense with the Eagles missing most of their receivers and possibly their best tight end in Zach Ertz while Seattle is decimated on the offensive line and at running back.

These two played a 17-9 game back in week twelve although there was bad weather in that game. The Eagles are just 3-4 ats as a home underdog under Pederson (1-4 ats the last four) and have gone 6-1 to the under in those games. That includes being 1-2 ats this year and 3-0 to the under with 17-10 and 17-9 losses to NE and Seattle and a 17-9 victory over Dallas. The Eagles defense has allowed a success rate of just 40% since week nine which is also about the time they finally got healthy on defense.

I do think the total is a little high in this game and would lean under with both defenses having a chance to control the offenses more. The Seahawks have suffered numerous injuries on offense the last few weeks but also lost Josh Gordon to suspension.

While Gordon wasn’t a big factor in the Seattle lineup up to this point he was another offensive skill player the defense had to account for because of his talent, if for no other reason. Since they lost Gordon they have had a success rate on offense of just 40% compared to their normal 49% success rate.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Philadelphia +1.5


Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Monday, 6 Jan at 5:05am AEDT

Minnesota rested many players last week in a meaningless game for them.

The Saints played their starters in a game that had the potential for a better seed although it didn’t turn out that way. They won easily over Carolina 42-10. They outgained Carolina 5.7yppl to 4.8yppl, outrushed them 3.3ypr to 2.3ypr and out passed them 8.3yps to 5.6yps. The yards per play numbers are skewed because NO ran the ball 17 more times than Carolina and the Panthers threw the ball 19 more times. NO was successful on 56% of their plays to 37% for Carolina.

Minnesota has been successful on 47% of their plays this year and allowed a 50% success rate. They are plus eleven in turnover margin. NO has been successful on 54% of their plays with Brees and allowing just a 42% success rate. The Saints are plus fifteen in turnover margin.

Minnesota lists CB Mackensie Alexander and Mike Hughes as out.

CB Eli Apple is out as is FB Zach Line for NO. Apple is a liability anyway for NO so this is an upgrade for them, especially after they acquired Janoris Jenkins a few weeks ago.

This game qualifies in an Over playoff situation, which is 29-11-0. The Vikings come off of a couple of non-cover games but that actually sets them up in a favorable 51-22-0 playoff situation. Minnesota also qualifies in another playoff situation, which is 30-11-2. The Saints are coming off a couple of high scoring performances which puts them in an 18-2-0 playoff situation. My numbers favor NO by 5.9 points and project 51.6 points. If using only playoff games I get NO by 8.6 points and project 68.9 points.

The Saints are 4-13 ats as a home favorite of more than seven points going back to 2014, including failing to cover vs Philadelphia in the playoffs last year as 8.5 point favorites. They’ve only been favorites in the playoffs of more than seven points three times, winning all three games SU and going 2-1 ats and 2-1 to the Over, scoring 45 points themselves in each of the other two games other than last year.

Sean Payton is just 2-5 ats as a home favorite but 6-1 SU in those games. He has gone 5-2 to the Over and they have scored 27 or more in five of those seven games. The only two games they did not were last year but their offense was trending downward the last half of the year last year. Mike Zimmer has never been a road dog in the playoffs and has coached just one game on the road in the playoffs and that was the 38-7 loss at Philadelphia in the NFC Championship game a few years ago.

The Vikings with Mike Zimmer are just 4-10-1 ats as a road dog in their last fifteen games since 2016. Cousins is 2-6-1 ats in those games. Since 2015 Cousins is 5-22 SU against teams who made the playoffs that year. He is 1-4 SU this year with the only win against a banged up Philadelphia team at home. The Vikings have run the ball a lot this year but that was mostly in games against inferior teams where they have had the game in command.

Against the playoff teams they have faced and not had a big lead (they led Philadelphia early and sat on the ball) they have passed the ball almost 64% of the time. I don’t think they can go into this game planning on running the ball. They will have to hope their defense can stop NO but also know they are going to have to score some points to win this game. Holding NO to under 24 points is probably not reasonable unless they get turnovers so I think they will be aggressive with their full complement of offensive players available.

Minnesota games against better than average offenses and average defenses (playoff-caliber teams) have totaled 58 (Philadelphia), 49 (Kansas City no Mahomes), 52 (Dallas) and 67 (Seattle). The Packers offense is average, at best, this year so I did not include them. Minnesota’s defense has also allowed a success rate of at least 50% against each of the playoff teams they have faced this year. The Saints have also played high scoring games against quality opponents with Drew Brees. They have totaled 58 (Houston), 60 (Seattle although no Brees in that game), 94 (San Francisco) and 66 (Tennessee).

The Saints offense is on a roll right now and in Brees games, other than the two Atlanta games, NO has scored 30 or more points in every game. Their defense has also allowed 27 or more in all of their games against playoff teams. Playoff games in domes tend to go over and games with a total of more than 45 have gone 24-8 to the over as well. Using all games I get value on the over but when both teams are matched up against quality opponents I get even more points scored. With the way the Saints offense is moving the ball right now I don’t know how they don’t get to at least 30 points in this game.

The Vikings have enough on offense to score some, especially against a Saints team who lost two defensive lineman a few weeks ago. As for the side, I don’t have much of an opinion but would lean to a teaser in this game on NO if anything.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 49.5

San Francisco 49ers v Seattle Seahawks

Monday, 30 Dec at 12:20pm AEDT

The 49ers are successful on 46% of their plays with George Kittle playing and allowing a 42% success rate. They are plus four in turnover margin.

Seattle is successful on 50% of their plays and allowing a 47% success rate. Seattle is plus twelve in turnover margin.

This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 342-240-9. My numbers favor Seattle by one point and project 49.8 points.

This game has the number one seed or the number five seed on the line for both teams. Win and SF has the number one seed. A Seattle win gives them the chance for a number one seed assuming a few other games fall in their favor. But, if GB wins earlier in the day Seattle can’t get the number one seed and will know they are, at best, playing for a number three seed.

Seattle will be much healthier on defence than they were last week. But, the Seahawks defense has allowed 24 or more points in all but four of their games. The 49ers have allowed 25 or more points in six of their last eight games. The 49ers have their own issues on defence with injuries. Seattle could also be down two starting offensive lineman.

LT Duane Brown is out and LG Mike Iupati is questionable. Seattle is 12-1 ats as a home dog going back to 2011, which is one year after Carroll arrived. Seattle is also 8-1 ats vs San Francisco at home when Carroll has been the head coach.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Seahawks +3.5

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Tuesday, 24 Dec at 12:20pm AEDT

The Packers have a 47% success rate on offence and are allowing a 49% success rate on defence. They are plus-14 in turnover margin.

Minnesota has been successful on 48% of their offensive plays and allow a 49% success rate. They are plus-11 in turnover margin.

Minnesota qualifies in a very good Monday night situation, which is 45-13-2. My numbers favor Minnesota by 6.6 points and project 44.6 points.

The Vikings are in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays. GB is in the bottom ten of the league in defending big pass plays.

GB is just 1-4 ats here in Minnesota the last five years with all five games going under the total. GB has scored 17 or less each of the last three years here. Aaron Rodgers is just 7-12-1 ats as a road dog going back to 2014. Minnesota is 14-2 to the under with Mike Zimmer as the head coach in home divisional games.

The Packers have struggled on offence this year against the better defences they have faced. Against Chicago, SF, Denver and Minnesota they have a success rate of just 39%. Against all other teams they are at 51%. They have averaged just 17 points a game in those games. On defence against the better offenses they have faced they are allowing a 52% success rate and allowing almost 27 points a game.

GB has allowed at least 24 points on the road against any of the better offences they have faced this year. The Vikings have struggled some against the better teams they have faced this year but those games were all on the road. They are allowing just 14 points at home while allowing 22 points on the road. The competition has been tougher on the road which accounts for some of that difference but, like most teams, this team is much better at home.

GB has lived off of turnovers to account for a team that averages 5.5yppl and allows 5.9yppl. Meanwhile, the Vikings average 6.0yppl and allow just 5.3yppl. And, these two teams have played almost the same schedule at the same sites with the only difference GB playing at SF and home against Carolina while Minnesota swapped out SF for an away game at Seattle and swapped out Carolina for a home game against Atlanta. Short of turnovers I’m not sure GB can get past 20 points if even 17 points in this game.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Minnesota -5


Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 22 Dec at 5:00am AEDT

Houston has been successful on 50% of their plays and are allowing a 45% success rate. They are minus two in turnover margin.

Tampa Bay has been successful on 44% of their plays and are allowing a success rate of 41%. They’re minus eight in turnover margin.

Houston is without LB Benardrick McKinney and LB Jacob Martin. They list several other players as questionable including WR Will Fuller.

TB is without WR Mike Evans, Scott Miller and Chris Godwin. DT Beau Allen is also out.

Houston qualifies in a negative letdown situation, which is 59-27-4 and plays against the Texans here. This situation hasn’t been as good the last few years but is still worth noting. My numbers make this game a pick ‘em and project 51.8 points.

TB is in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays while Houston is in the bottom ten of the league in defending big pass plays. TB is without their top two wide receivers likely for the rest of the year.

Houston is 5-2-1 ats as a road favorite under Bill O’Brien, although just 1-2-1 ats with DeShaun Watson. They have won seven of those eight games straight up.

TB has won four games in a row but each of those wins came against teams who were under .500. Their last game against a good team was a 17-34 home loss to NO. They will also play this game without their top two wide receivers and two of the best receivers in the league. Houston comes off a big win for them and could be in letdown mode but Houston is the better team in this game.

Against teams who are currently above .500 TB is 1-5 SU this year with all five losses by four points or more. They’ve also allowed 27 or more points against the better offences they have faced this year. I would lean to the over in this game but there are supposed to be some winds in this game that could impact the scoring and both teams have wide receivers missing. Houston has struggled to get to the quarterback this year but it remains to be seen what Jameis Winston can do without his top targets.

Take the Bucs plus the points in a game that figures to be close.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bucs +3


Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 23 Dec at 8:30am AEDT

Buffalo is successful on 45% of their plays and are allowing a 42% success rate. They are plus five in turnover margin.

New England has been successful on 45% of their offensive plays and are allowing a 40% success rate. The Patriots are a league-leading plus twenty-four in turnover margin.

The Bills are without T Ty Nsekhe.

NE is without CB Jonathan Jones.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor the Patriots by 5.6 points and project just 28 points in this game.

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays. Since 2001 NE is 57-23-7 ats as a home favorite of seven or less although just 1-2 ats this year. They are also 11-3 to the under in their last 14 in this role. In the Sean McDermott era Buffalo is 15-4 to the under as a road dog. In games that Josh Allen has started (2018-19) the Bills are 10-0 to the under. They scored more than 17 points just twice.

During 2017 Allen wasn’t on the team but Tyrod Taylor started the majority of those games with the exception of the five interceptions in the first half game at the Chargers started by Nathan Peterman. They were 5-1 to the under in those non-Peterman games in 2017 as a road dog. So, when they have had a competent quarterback start for them as a road dog they are now 15-1 to the under in those games. They have topped 17 points in just three of those 16 games. Buffalo is also 7-2-1 ats as a road dog in games Allen has started.

NE started the season against some very bad teams and built up their numbers. But the second half of the season has seen them face some much tougher teams. They haven’t fared well in those games. They are just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS versus playoff teams.

They were dominated badly at the line of scrimmage against Buffalo earlier in the year and lost to Houston, KC and Baltimore. Here comes Buffalo who brings a very good defence to face a NE offence that we are still waiting to get on track this year. I think we can stop waiting. NE is what they are. A good defensive team that struggles on offence. The fact NE had trouble at Cincinnati last week is very alarming.

Where NE has an advantage in this game is they know how to win games and usually don’t make mistakes. Hence their +24 in turnover margin. Buffalo will have to play a clean game to win this game which is something they couldn’t do the first time around in their 16-10 loss at home. Versus the two best defences they have faced this year NE has scored 16 vs Buffalo and 20 vs Baltimore. They scored on a blocked punt vs Buffalo and two turnovers gave NE exceptional field position against Baltimore which led to ten points. Granted the NE defence is very good and could do that again this week.

But, short of that, I think NE will struggle to score points on any regular basis. At the same time NE has allowed more than 14 points only three times and all three of those were against very good offences. That is not Buffalo. Buffalo hasn’t scored more than 20 points against the best defences they have faced this year. I’m not sure either team can get over 20 points in this game short of turnovers that directly creates points or short field position for the opponent. My numbers show plenty of value on the under despite the low total.

I won’t go against NE at home laying less than a touchdown but I also am not interested in going against Buffalo, who I think is equipped to hang with NE.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 37.5


LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Sunday, 23 Dec at 12:30am AEDT

The Rams are successful on 46% of their plays and allow a 44% success rate. They are minus-six in turnover margin.

SF is successful on 47% of their plays and allows a 43% success rate. The 49ers are plus-five in turnover margin.

CB Troy Hill is out for the Rams and K Greg Zuerlein is questionable.

DE Dee Ford, S Jaquiski Tartt and DT Jullian Taylor are out.

San Francisco qualifies in a bounce-back 64-32-2 situation that plays on teams off losses as a big favourite. SF also qualifies in a negative home favourite situation, which is 66-33-2 and plays against home favourites who have had poor defensive performances in the last two weeks. This game would also qualify in a 337-237-2 under situation if the total is higher than 45. My numbers favour SF by 9.2 points and project 41.5 points.

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays. But, they are both in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays as well. The Rams have only been road dogs four times under Sean McVay but they are 3-1 ats in that role. Coming into this year SF was 1-15 ats as a home favourite in their previous sixteen times in that role.

They’ve gone 3-3-1 ats in that role this year with a much better team than years past. The Rams have faced four good defences this year (SF, Pitt, Chi and Bal) and averaged a 40% success rate and just 10.5 points per game. SF is banged up on defence but it is still a good defence.

SF wants to run the ball and the Rams are best when they can run the ball. The 49ers defence is susceptible to the run and the Rams need to establish the run to take the pressure off of Jared Goff. Both of these teams have above average defences and would prefer to run the ball if the game goes their way. And the Rams have shown their inability to score points against the better defences they have faced this year. There is value to the under in this game. I’ll pass on the side but would lean SF.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 44.5


Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears

Monday, 23 Dec at 12:20pm AEDT

KC has a 48% success rate on offence and allows a 47% success rate. They are plus-nine in turnover margin with Mahomes starting.

Chicago has a 42% success rate on offence with Trubisky starting and allows a 44% success rate on defence. They are minus two in turnover margin.

KC will be without CB Morris Claiborne and G Andrew Wylie

The Bears are without WR Taylor Gabriel and T Bobby Massie.

KC qualifies in a negative last road game situation which is 75-32-2. The Chiefs also qualify in a letdown situation off their defensive performance last week, which is 262-184-9. The Bears also qualify in a contrary against the spread situation, which is 217-131-13. My numbers favor KC by 6.7 points and project 38.8 points.

KC is in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays while Chicago is in the bottom ten of the league. Both teams are in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays. The Bears improved their defense back in 2017 and since that time they have gone 6-1-1 ats as a home dog with the only loss to NE last year.

The Chiefs defence has gotten their act together the last four weeks as they have gotten healthy. In those four games, they have allowed a success rate of just 42% compared to a success rate of 48% prior to that. They haven’t faced great offenses in those four weeks but the Bears aren’t a great offence either so I expect more of the same that has produced efforts which have seen their defense allow 17 or less points in the last four weeks. Offensively KC has been good but not great lately either as they have scored 24 or less in three of those last four games. Some of that lower scoring is likely due to bad weather as well.

The Bears defence has allowed more than 24 points just once this year and Akiem Hicks was back last week for Chicago as well. He is listed as questionable this week. There are some good situations in favor the Bears or against KC this week but my numbers still favor KC by 6.7 points so I would likely want to see seven points before I got involved with Chicago in this game but I do think the under as an excellent chance knowing neither team is likely to get past 24 or so points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 44.5

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints

Tuesday, 17 Dec at 12:15pm AEDT

Indianapolis has been successful on 47% of their plays where Brissett has played and allowed a success rate of 45%. They are plus one in turnover margin in those games as well.

NO has been successful on 53% of the plays Brees has participated in and allowed a 43% success rate. They are plus seven in turnover margin in those games.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor NO by 7.4 points and project 49.5 points.

Both of these teams are in the bottom ten of the league in generating big pass plays.

NO is now just 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of more than seven points going back to 2014. The Colts have been very competitive in their games this year despite all the injuries they have faced. They have lost just one game by more than seven points this year and that was a 14 point loss at home to Tennessee.

That was a game that was tied 17-17 with five minutes left and Indy attempting a field goal to give them the lead and it was blocked and returned for a touchdown. Tennessee would also get a late score to win by 14. So, the Colts are staying competitive.

The Saints have been good this year but their double-digit wins have all come against the worst teams they have played.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Colts +10 at $1.80 or better


Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday, 16 Dec at 12:20pm AEDT

Buffalo has been successful on 45% of their plays this year and allow a 42% success rate. They are plus two in turnover margin.

Pittsburgh has been successful on 48% of the plays Duck Hodges has been involved in and they have allowed a 42% success rate. They are plus twelve in turnover margin for the year and plus four with Hodges starting.

T Ty Nsekhe is out for Buffalo.

TE Vance McDonald and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster are out and RB James Conner is questionable.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Buffalo by 1.5 points and project 32.2 points.

Buffalo is in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays while Pittsburgh is in the bottom ten of the league. Although with Duck Hodges Pittsburgh is in the top ten in generating big pass plays on a limited sample size. Both teams are in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays.

In the Sean McDermott era Buffalo is 14-4 to the under as a road dog. In games that Josh Allen has started (2018-19) the Bills are 9-0 to the under. They scored more than 17 points just twice. During 2017 Allen wasn’t on the team but Tyrod Taylor started the majority of those games with the exception of the five interceptions in the first half game at the Chargers started by Nathan Peterman.

They were 5-1 to the under in those non-Peterman games in 2017 as a road dog. So, when they have had a competent quarterback start for them as a road dog they are now 14-1 to the under in those games. They have topped 17 points in just three of those 15 games.

Buffalo is also 6-2-1 ATS a road dog in games Allen has started. The Steelers are 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite. The Bills have lost only four games this year and just one of those was by more than seven points. The Steelers have played well this year but they’ve only won two games by more than seven points and that was against one win Cincinnati and three win Miami.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bills +1


NY Jets at Baltimore Ravens

Friday, 13 Dec at 12:20pm AEDT

The Jets are clearly below average both on offence and defence. NY is minus four in turnover margin with Darnold starting. They are successful on 43% of their plays with Darnold and allowing a success rate of 42%.

Baltimore is well above average on offence and right around the league benchmark on defence. They are plus eight in turnover margin. Baltimore averages a 53% success rate and allows a 44% success rate.

The Jets list T Chuma Edoga, TE Ryan Griffin, CB Brian Poole as out. They list S Jamal Adams, CB Arthur Maulet and DT Quinnen Williams as doubtful. They also list several players as questionable.

The Ravens list T Ronnie Stanley as doubtful. QB Lamar Jackson, DT Jihad Ward, TE Mark Andrews and S Anthony Levine are listed as questionable.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Baltimore by 15.8 points and project 46.2 points.

Baltimore is in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays and also in defending big pass plays. Baltimore is 2-7 ATS as a home favorite in games Lamar Jackson has started. The Jets are only 3-6 ATS as a road dog in games Sam Darnold has started.

The Jets defence has been pretty good this year but they really haven’t faced a good offence in about eight weeks. They are also extremely banged up for this game.

The Jets have not been as good on the road and are allowing about six points more than what those teams average that they have played on the road and they are scoring about two points worse compared to their overall numbers.

Baltimore added cornerback help via trade and return from injury back in weeks 7 and 9. Since then they haven’t allowed more than 20 points and I would really call it 17 points since some of those 20 points allowed to NE were off of turnovers which gave the Pats very short field position.

The numbers are about right for this game although my most accurate model does favor the Ravens to cover and that model has been pretty accurate on Baltimore games this year. Because of that I will lean their way.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Ravens -16

NY Giants at Philadephia Eagles

Tuesday, 10 Dec at 12:15pm AEDT

The Giants are below average on both sides of the ball and are minus fourteen in turnover margin. That’s the perfect recipe for a 2-10 record. They have been successful on 41% of their plays and allow a 45% success rate.

Philly has also been average on both offence and defence. They’re minus five in turnover margin. The Eagles have been successful on 50% of their plays and allow a 44% success rate.

The Giants are without TE Rhett Ellison, QB Daniel Jones, S Jabrill Peppers and TE Evan Engram.

Philly lists WR Nelson Ahgolor as questionable.

I have situations going both ways for these teams and this game does apply to a 342-240-3 under situation. My numbers favour the Eagles by 6.1 points and project 45.8 points.

Both of these teams are in the bottom ten of the league in generating big pass plays. The Eagles are in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays while the Giants are in the bottom ten of the league.

Eagles just 3-7-1 ats since winning the SB as a home favorite. The Giants have lost all six games against teams who could make the playoffs by 14 or more points this year. Philly has two wins by more than eight points and one of those came against the Luke Falk Jets so that doesn’t count. Giants 9-3 ATS as road dogs since last year. Tough game to find value but I’ll lean the Eagles’ way.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Eagles -9.5


Seattle Seahawks at LA Rams

Monday, 9 Dec at 12:20pm AEDT

Seattle’s offence is above average but despite their 9-2 record their defence has given up more yards per play than the league benchmark. Seattle has been successful on 50% of their plays and are allowing a 45% success rate. The Seahawks are plus ten in turnover margin.

The Rams yards per play numbers are above average on both offence and defence. The Rams have been successful on 46% of their plays and are allowing a 43% success rate. LA is minus four in turnover margin.

Seattle lists DE Jadeveon Clowney and Ziggy Ansah as questionable. CB Neiko Thorpe is out.

The Rams are without TE Gerald Everett and they list T Rob Havenstein as doubtful.

This game qualifies in a 342-240-3 under situation. My numbers favour Seattle by 4.3 points and project 40.7 points.

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays. But, both teams are in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays. If they become a dog Russell Wilson is 16-7-1 ats as a road dog in his career. The Rams are just 1-3 SU vs playoff teams and the one win came against the Saints after they lost Drew Brees early in that game.

The Rams have started to run the ball more as of late and as long as they aren’t getting blown out in this game they are likely to try and get a balanced effort and run the ball 50% of the time. That may suit Seattle just fine as they would love to run the ball 50% of the time as well.

With both teams having the capability to defend big pass plays and wanting to run the ball this clock could tick down quick and come under the bigger total we are seeing. Jared Goff is more likely to make turnovers than Russell Wilson so I will lean Seattle’s way.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Seattle to Win

 BACK – Under 47.5


Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Friday, 6 Dec at 12:20pm AEDT

Dallas have been well above average on offence this season but slightly below average on defence. The Cowboys have a success rate of 52% and allow 47%. They are minus-four in turnover margin.

Chicago has been anemic on offence but their defence has kept them competitive. Chicago have been successful on 42% of their plays and are allowing a 45% success rate on defence. Chicago are plus three in turnover margin.

For Dallas S Jeff Heath, LB Leighton Vander Esch and DT Antwaun Woods are out.

For Chicago, WR Taylor Gabriel, T Bobby Massie and LB Danny Trevathan are out.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Dallas by two points and project 38 points.

Chicago is in the bottom 10 of the league in generating big pass plays while Dallas is in the top 10. Chicago is also in the top 10 of the league in defending big pass plays. The Cowboys have played three decent to good defensive teams on the road this year and scored 10 at NO, 22 at the Jets and 9 at NE. The NE game had some weather which played into the final score but they still did not move the ball well.

Now they get Chicago on grass, where the weather should be okay for a December game. Chicago has allowed more than 17 points in one game at home this year. In five games against good defences, both home and away, Dallas has averaged just 16 points.

The Cowboys defence hasn’t been good this year but they have talent and when playing anemic offences they have held their own.

The Bears have gotten into the twenties only four times this year – twice against Detroit, once against NO when they scored multiple times in the last minutes of the game because they were down by so much and 21 points against Oakland where 14 were almost gifted to them. Dallas could get into the twenties in this game but I doubt Chicago does.

This game is on grass which will slow things down some. In addition, it would not surprise me if Dallas tries to re-establish the run this game and control the clock as much as they can. With the Bears defense still above average, Dallas may move the ball but they will likely have to work a little harder to get it done, which will eat time off the clock.

Chicago is 10-2-1 ats as a home dog since 2016 and 5-2 under in their last seven as a home dog since 2017. Dallas is 8-3-1 ats in their last 12 has a road favorite.

I don’t have an opinion on the side in this game but do believe it stands an excellent chance to go under the total.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 43.5

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Tuesday, 3 Dec at 12:15pm AEDT

Minnesota are above-average on both sides of the ball on a yards-per-play basis, especially offensively. They have gained and allowed a 48% success rate on offence and defence. Minnesota is plus-four in turnover margin.

My numbers favour Seattle by 1.3 points and project 47.1 points. Seattle qualifies in a very good Monday night situation, which is 45-13-2.

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays. Seattle is also in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays. Mike Zimmer is 18-8-2 to the under as a road dog with Minnesota. They are also just 4-9-1 ats as a road dog in their last fourteen games since 2016. Cousins is 2-5-1 ats in those games.

Since 2015 Cousins is 5-20 SU against teams who made the playoffs that year. We thought he had another one a few weeks ago when they defeated Dallas but I think Dallas is a good bet to not make the playoffs now. I have him at 1-2 SU this year with losses to GB and KC and a win against Philadelphia (either Philly or Dallas will make the playoffs but not both, so one win between the two of them).

Seattle is just 5-11-1 ats since 2017 as a home favourite. S Quandre Diggs was traded to Seattle from Detroit a few weeks ago and that trade seems to have sparked a resurgence in the Seahawks defence. Seattle won here last year 21-7. In games against teams who would be considered a legitimate chance to make the playoffs Seattle games have totalled 46 or more points.

I did not count the Philadelphia game last week due to bad weather and Philly was very banged up on offence. They have either lost each of those games or won by four or less so they aren’t likely to win this with margin this week either.

Minnesota has stayed within five points of any of their games against competent teams this year and totalled 49 or more points in three of their four games. The total shows some slight value to the under but the pace of how this game is likely to be played is probably one that will create more points. A better play looks to be the Vikings plus the points in a game that figures to be close.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Vikings +3


New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Monday, Dec 2 at 12:20pm AEDT

The Patriots’ offensive yards per play numbers don’t really match up with a 10-1 team but their defence has been very good this season. The Pats have been successful on 45% of their plays and are allowing a success rate of 40%. NE is plus-19 (an amazing number) in turnover margin.

Houston have been above average on offence and right around the benchmark on D. The Texans have been successful on 50% of their plays and are allowing a 45% success rate. Houston is even in turnover margin.

NE list 16 players as questionable while Houston have T Tytus Howard as doubtful.

New England qualifies in a negative letdown situation coming off their good defensive performance last week, which is 262-184-9 and plays against them here. Houston qualifies in a very good home dog rushing situation which is 99-43-4. My numbers favour NE by 5.8 points and project 36.4 points.

New England is in the top ten of defending big pass plays.

Houston is just 4-11 ats as a home dog going back to 2013, including 3-8 ats under Bill O’Brien. Houston has allowed 20 or more points in all but four games this year and even though the NE offence is average, they should be able to move the ball and score on an average defence like Houston’s.

NE hasn’t allowed more than 14 points all year with the exception of their game against Baltimore, who is scoring 40+ points on everyone. Against the more competent defences they have faced this year, Houston hasn’t topped more than 20 points.

The Patriots got back LT Isaiah Wynn back last week and they were able to break off a few good runs against Dallas. This is a tough matchup for Houston. They have been banged up in their secondary and aren’t getting to the quarterback to force pressure which makes it even tougher to defend the NE passing attack.

Add to it that Bill O’Brien is 0-5 SU against Bill Belichick and this just isn’t an easy feat for Houston. The situations are very strong in their favour but the value lies with NE. If Houston can’t get past 20 points in this game it will be tough to cover the number. Pass on the side but there may be some value on the under.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 46.5


New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Friday, Nov 29 at 12:20pm AEDT

This game qualifies in a few under situations, which are 342-240-3 and 63-22-2. My numbers favour the Saints by four points and project 44.5 points.

The Saints are in the bottom ten of the league in generating big pass plays and Atlanta is right next to them in the 11th position from the bottom. The Saints are also in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays while Atlanta is in the bottom ten of the league.

Despite the notion the Saints are a big passing team and they do throw the ball very well, Drew Brees is basically at the bottom of the league in yards per air pass meaning almost all of his completions go for a very short distance and then it’s up to the receiver to make yards after the catch.

That is one of the reasons the Saints are near the bottom in big pass plays. It also is a reason the clock can get eaten up on long 15 play drives in this offence because of the short passes that keep the clock ticking (high percentage of completions) and simply keep moving the chains for first downs.

Since 2017 when the Saints got back to playing playoff type football they are 7-3 ats as a road favorite and have allowed more than 20 points in just one of those ten games. If the Saints get an extended lead which is very possible in this game they will go to the run game and eat clock and get out of town.

Since Dan Quinn arrived in Atlanta back in 2015, his teams are 5-1 ats as a home underdog and have gone 5-1 to the under as well. LT Terron Armstead and LG Andrus Peat are both likely to miss this game for NO. CB Marshon Lattimore has a chance to return in this game for NO.

Atlanta isn’t very good this year but since Matt Ryan arrived in 2008 the Falcons have never lost by more than six points to the Saints at home. I don’t know if I can trust Atlanta in this spot to cover although there is some value on their side. But, I do like this game to stay under the number.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 48.5


Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Friday, Nov 29 at 4:30am AEDT

Chicago’s offensive yards per play numbers are terrible. They have managed to win 5 games so far on the back of a strong defence. The Bears have been successful on 42% of their plays while allowing the opponent to be successful on 45%. Chicago is plus three in the turnover margin.

With Jeff Driskel at quarterback (he may not start because of a hamstring but his replacement is closer to Driskel than using any of Matt Stafford’s numbers) the Lions are league-average on offence. They are below average on defence. Detroit has been successful on 43% of their plays under Driskel and allowed a success rate of 44%. They are minus two in turnover margin during that time.

Detroit qualifies in a home dog role based on their loss last week as a favourite, which is 90-52-9. My numbers favour Chicago by 0.5 points and project 37 points if Driskel starts.

With Jeff Driskel at quarterback, the Lions are in the bottom ten of the league along with Chicago for big pass play attempts. In terms of defending big pass plays Detroit is in the bottom ten of the league while the Bears are in the top ten.

The Bears may catch a break in this game because Detroit could be down to their third-string quarterback who has never started a game in the NFL. But if Driskel starts then the fact Chicago has allowed over a 50% success rate on the road this year and over 50% individually in four of the five games they have played on the road this year, gives Detroit some hope in this game.

We know Chicago’s offence struggles, whether it is at home or on the road. The Bears constant has been the defence. But if that fails them on the road to go along with a very poor Chicago offence, Detroit has a chance to win this game where they are getting points at home.

The Detroit offence with Driskel and Chicago offence are almost equal. That means we are down to compare the defences. The Bears defence is much better but knowing they are allowing over a 50% success rate on the road brings this Lions defence, as bad as it has been, back into the picture of being able to compete in this game.

The Lions defence may not be very good but when they have played anemic offences this year such as the Giants, Bears and Washington, they have only allowed a success rate of 38%. This Bears offence has topped 20 points just three times this year.

They scored 31 at Washington that turnovers aided the scoring, 21 in London against Oakland that turnovers literally just about gave them 14 points and 25 points in garbage time against the Saints when the game was well decided. If they can’t score more than 20 points and are laying 4 points that gets dicey real quick.

If Driskel can’t start or isn’t mobile enough to do his thing then all bets are off and unfortunately, we may not know any of that until game time or until we see him play a series or two, which makes it tough to handicap this game.

I lean towards the Lions in the Thanksgiving Day opener.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Lions +4


Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

Friday, Nov 29 at 8:30am AEDT

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favour Dallas by 5.2 points and project 41.7 points.

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the league in big pass plays on offence. The Bills are also in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays.

The Dallas offence is very good but when they have played defences that are closer to this Bills defence they have struggled some to score points. Dallas has averaged about 16 points against defences in the same neighbourhood of Buffalo although most of those games were played on the road.

On the flip side when Dallas has played offences like the Bills, they have allowed around 20 points or so but both of those games were on the road as well.

The Bills haven’t really played an offence close to this level yet this year so it’s hard to gauge how they will perform other than we know they are above average as a whole. Buffalo has played three teams somewhat similar to this Dallas defence and averaged about 16 points a game against those other defences. In the Sean McDermott era, Buffalo is 13-4 to the under as a road dog.

In games that Josh Allen has started (2018-19) the Bills are 8-0 to the under. They scored more than 17 points just once and that was in Minnesota last year when they scored 27 points but three drives totalled 13 points for them that went 25 yards or less because of favourable field position following turnovers.

During 2017 Allen wasn’t on the team but Tyrod Taylor started the majority of those games with the exception of the five interceptions in the first half game at the Chargers started by Nathan Peterman. They were 5-1 to the under in those non-Peterman games in 2017 as a road dog.

So, when they have had a competent quarterback start for them as a road dog they are now 13-1 to the under in those games. They have topped 17 points in just two of those 14 games and the other game not listed above was at Atlanta where they scored 23 points but also got a defensive score in that game.

The Cowboys, under Dak Prescott, are 7-1-1 ats as a home favourite of six or more points. Other than being favoured by 22 over Miami this year, the rest of those games they have been favoured by 6 to 7 points so close to this spread range. They’ve allowed more than 21 points just once. Buffalo doesn’t figure to get more than 17-20 points in this game short of turnovers.

The Bills are also more than capable of holding Dallas to 27 or less in this game. That gives them a good chance to cover the line and there also looks to be some value on the under.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bills +7

Baltimore Ravens at LA Rams

Tuesday, Nov 26 at 12:15pm AEDT

Baltimore averages 6.1yppl against teams allowing 5.8yppl. They allow 5.7yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl. They have been successful on 51% of their plays and are allowing a success rate of 47%. Baltimore is plus six in turnover margin.

The Rams average 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. They allow 4.8yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl. The Rams have been successful on 45% of their plays and are allowing a 42% success rate on defense. They are minus-three in turnover margin.

For Baltimore DT Michael Pierce is doubtful. LT Ronnie Stanley is questionable.

For the Rams RT Rob Havenstein and CB Darious Williams are out.

My numbers favor Baltimore by nine points but they do qualify in a couple of consistent and reliable negative situations, which are 75-28-4 and 262-184-9 ATS.

My numbers project 49.3 points.

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays. The Rams lead the league as the most difficult team to generate a big pass play against.

Against the last three good defenses, they have faced the Rams have scored 17, 12 and 7 points. The Ravens haven’t allowed more than 20 points in five straight games. They’ve scored 23 or more in every game this year. And, the Rams defense has allowed more than 20 in just three games this year. This is a game where there is clear value on the Ravens but some situations against them. I do think the Ravens are the better team so I will lean that way.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Ravens -3


Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Friday, Nov 22 at 12:20pm AEDT

Indianapolis, in games Brissett has started and finished has averaged 5.4yppl against teams allowing 5.6yppl. They are allowing 5.8yppl against teams averaging 5.8yppl. They are successful on 49% of their plays and allowing a success rate of 45%. Indianapolis is minus-three in turnover margin for those same games.

Houston averages 5.9yppl against teams allowing 5.7yppl. They allow 6.0yppl against teams averaging 5.9yppl. They have been successful on 51% of their plays and allow a success rate of 44%. The Texans are plus one in turnover margin.

For Indianapolis they have ruled out RB Marlon Mack, S Kharl Willis and WR Parris Campbell. TE Eric Ebron, WR T.Y. Hilton and CB Rock Ya-Sin are questionable.

For Houston WR Will Fuller is questionable. S Justin Reid is out and CB Bradley Roby is a game-time decision.

This game would qualify in an under situation, which is 342-240-3, if you can get a total higher than 45. My numbers favour Houston by 2.5 points and project 45.1 points.

Indianapolis is in the bottom ten of the league in generating big pass plays and Houston is just outside the bottom ten so neither team generates big pass plays. Indianapolis is in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays.

The Colts defence has been very good when they have been healthy. With LB Darius Leonard and S Malik Hooker healthy the Colts defence has allowed only a 44% success rate. They’ve also held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 16 or less points.

They’ve run the ball on 53% of their plays on the road this year and that has also helped to keep their defence fresh and playing at its highest level. Houston is 6-4 on the year but they’ve only won four games by more than three points and three of those four all came against below .500 teams such as Jacksonville twice and Atlanta.

Going back to the beginning of 2017 in all games DeShaun Watson has started he has won 20 games during the regular season. Only two of those 20 wins have come by more than three points against a team who ultimately made the playoffs. That’s assuming KC makes the playoff this year. It’s not known yet if Indy will make the playoffs but they are certainly capable of doing so.

This is a series where Indianapolis has been the better team typically and knowing Houston has failed to separate themselves from the competition when they are facing good teams, it’s not unreasonable to expect them to not win this game by margin either. HOUSTON 23 INDIANAPOLIS 20.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Houston 1st Half -2.5


Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

Monday, Nov 25 at 12:20pm AEDT

GB has been above-average on offense but below average on defense by the same margin. The Packers have been successful on 48% of their plays and are allowing a success rate of 50%. GB is plus-nine in turnover margin which is covering up their below average defense.

SF have been average on offence and excellent defensively – they have allowed 4.5yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl. SF has been successful on 45% of their plays and are allowing a success rate of 41%. The Niners are plus-five in turnover margin.

TE Robert Tonyan and RB Dan Vitale are listed as questionable.

The 49ers list TE George Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel and WR Emmanuel Sanders as questionable. It looks like they will play although how healthy and effective can they be is another thing. RB Matt Breida and K Robbie Gould are doubtful. DE Dee Ford and T Joe Staley are out.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor SF by 6 points and project 43.2 points.

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays. In terms of defending big pass plays GB is in the bottom ten while SF is in the top ten of the league.

The Packers come off their bye week but prior to their bye week they faced six or seven teams in a row that were below average defenses or average, at best. They will be challenged by a very good 49ers defense. On the other hand, the Packers defense is average, at best.

But, they’ve allowed more than 24 points just twice (26 to the Chargers and 34 to the Eagles) so despite an average defence, they have kept teams somewhat in check. Now they get the 49ers who have played a relatively easy schedule so far this year.

Against the better teams, they have played they defeated the Rams and lost to the Seahawks. They’ve also shown some cracks in the wall the last few weeks by allowing 25, 26 and 27 points. Those three games have also seen their defense allow a 51% success rate.

GB allows 4.8ypr so SF definitely has a chance to take advantage of the Packers weakness defending the run. But, a lot of this game will come down to injuries and how effective George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders can be. Without George Kittle the last two weeks SF goes from a success rate of 46% to 39.5%.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – 49ers -3

Kansas City at LA Chargers

Tuesday, Nov 19 at 12:15pm AEDT

This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 342-240-3. My numbers favour KC by 4.7 points and project 45.7 points.

The Chiefs are in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays. As bad as the Chargers seem to have been at times this year they haven’t lost a game by more than seven points. Granted a seven-point loss here would not be a cover but they’ve been in every game this year.

That is one of the reasons since Philip Rivers took over in SD (now LA) his team is 22-6-1 ats as a road dog of four points or more.

On the other side of the ledger, KC has played seven of their ten games within five points or less (or a loss). The Chiefs have scored 24 or more points in games Patrick Mahomes has started this year with the exception of the Colts game, which was more reflective of the Colts holding the ball for such a long time. Houston did the same thing the following week.

Minus those two games, his starts have produced 28 or more points. The Chargers are capable of holding the ball in a similar style if they can execute. But, they’ve also allowed 23 or more points in all but three games. Denver was horrible so they weren’t going to get there. Oakland just couldn’t execute and Indy was playing keep away.

Meanwhile against the less than average defence they have faced this year the Chargers have scored 24 or more points. If the Chargers can execute and move the ball on the ground to control the clock they can stay in this game.

It’s always hard to count on LA but getting points is the best way to count on them assuming they are still interested.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chargers +4.5


Chicago Bears at LA Rams

Monday, Nov 18 at 12:20pm AEDT

TE Trey Burton, LB Isaiah Irving, TE Adam Shaheen and LB Danny Trevathan are out.

WR Brandon Cooks, T Rob Havenstein and CB Darious Williams are out.

My numbers favour the Rams by only 2.3 points and project 36.7 points.

The Bears are in the bottom ten of the league in generating big pass plays with the Rams just outside the top ten in generating big pass plays. Both of these teams are in the top ten in defending big pass plays.

The only wins the Rams have had by more than seven points this year were against zero win Cincinnati, two-win Atlanta and over New Orleans but they lost Drew Brees early in that game. They haven’t allowed more than 20 points against the non-elite offences they have faced so the defence has done their job this year for the most part.

It’s been the offence that has struggled and will likely struggle against a good Bears defence as well. Chicago’s defence look capable of containing Gurley and pressuring Goff.

On the other hand, the Bears have only lost one game by more than eight points and that was to New Orleans. They’ve allowed more than 24 points just once this year and that was also against NO.

Since 2016, Chicago is 8-1-1 to the under in games where the total was less than 44. The Bears do have some injuries on defence. They will need Mitchell Trubisky to move the ball against a still good Rams defence but Chicago plus the points look to be the value play.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Bears +6.5


Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders

Friday, Nov 15 at 12:20pm AEDT

For Pittsburgh RB Roosevelt Nix and RB Benny Snell are out. CB Joe Haden is questionable after being added to the injury report Wednesday with an illness.

The Browns are without S Eric Murray and DE Olivier Vernon.

Cleveland qualifies in a contrary situation that plays on teams who have been poor covering the spread vs teams who have been very successful. That situation is 217-131-13. My numbers favour Cleveland by 0.1 points and project 42.2 points.

The Steelers are in the bottom ten of the league in generating big pass plays but they sit in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays.

Going back to last year since Baker Mayfield became the starting quarterback when Cleveland has faced a team that had a good defence they have scored 12, 14, 13, 13, 13, 3, 13, 19 and 19 points. That includes losing this year to Tennessee by 30, to the Rams by 7, to the 49ers by 28 points, to NE by 14 and to Denver by five points.

They are also now 3-9 SU against teams that made the playoffs or in the case of this year could make the playoffs. I included Buffalo in the stat above about potential playoff teams and Pittsburgh falls into that same category.

We may find out at the end of the year neither Buffalo or Pittsburgh are playoff teams so Cleveland winning these games may not be that big of a deal. But, I am pretty certain they are facing a very good defence here in the Steelers.

The Steelers are 10-3-1 ATS as a road dog since 2015. They are also 10-4 to the under in that same time frame. Cleveland hasn’t been a good home favourite for a long time but we know they had some pretty poor teams for most of those years.

Since last year when one could argue they had better talent, they are still just 1-4-1 ats as a home favourite so that stat hasn’t changed since they supposedly became a better team.

Baker Mayfield will need to be careful with the ball especially against this type of defence. Laying points with a very bad coach isn’t a recipe for success.

The situation says Cleveland should bounce back and they are minus eight in turnovers while Pittsburgh is plus thirteen. Those things have a way of evening themselves out over time. If Cleveland can win the turnover battle they should win and cover this game.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Cleveland -3

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers

Tuesday, Nov 12 at 12:15pm AEDT

Seattle are slightly above average on offence but have been below average on defence. The Seahawks have been successful on 51% of their plays while they allow a success rate of 46%. Seattle is plus-seven in turnover margin.

SF are also slightly above average on offence. But their defensive numbers are very strong allowing just 4.5 yards per play against teams averaging 5.3yppl. SF has been successful on 46% of their plays and allow a success rate of just 39% of their opponents’ plays. SF is plus-four in turnover margin.

Seattle have no meaningful players on the injury report.

For SF K Robbie Gould and TE George Kittle are doubtful. They do look like they will get back their LT Joe Staley, RT Mike McGlinchey, FB Kyle Juszczyk, CB Ahkello Witherspoon and RB Raheen Mostert.

If the 49ers are favorites of less than six points they would qualify in a very good Monday night situation, which is 45-13-2. This game does qualify in an under situation, which is 342-240-3. My numbers favor SF by 7.4 points and project 46.1 points.

Russell Wilson is 15-7 ats as a road dog since he came into the league back in 2012. That includes being 4-0 ats as a road dog of six or more. He is 6-1 ats as a dog of four or more.

I would expect both teams to run the ball in this game. SF runs it 56% of the time anyway while Seattle is running it around 50% of the time on the road and SF allows 4.7ypr. That may well be one area Seattle can attack and control the clock against a very good 49ers defence and, at the same time, protect their defense, which hasn’t been great this year.

The Niners are getting back a bunch of very important ingredients to their team in the LT, RT, FB and a few other additions. Unfortunately for them, they are likely to be missing their most important ingredient on offence in George Kittle. With the addition of Emmanuel Sanders a few weeks ago that does take a little bit of the pressure off the offence.

The under situation is a very strong situation but both of these teams have recently added key pieces to their offence at the receiver position with Sanders for SF and Josh Gordon for Seattle. I would probably want to see this total go up to at least 51 before I would get involved with a serious bet on the under.

The situation on the 49ers is a very good situation if it applies but I’m also not eager to go against Russell Wilson as a dog. The Niners are likely to get to 24 or more points in this game and Seattle has a chance to get into the twenties but I prefer the much better defence to win. The spread is probably about right in this game.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 48


Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys

Monday, Nov 11 at 12:20pm AEDT

The Vikings are 0.4 yards per play better than the league average both on offence and defence. They have been successful on 46% of their plays but allowed a success rate of 49%. Minnesota is plus-four in turnover margin.

Dallas are well above average on offence but are right on the league benchmark on defence. The Cowboys have been successful on 53% of their plays and are allowing a success rate of 49%. Dallas is plus-one in turnover margin.

DT Linval Joseph and WR Adam Thielen are out.

T Cameron Fleming is out for Dallas. WR Amari Cooper is questionable but says he will play.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Dallas by 2.2 points and project 46.8 points.

Mike Zimmer is 18-7-2 to the under as a road dog with Minnesota. They are also just 3-9-1 ats as a road dog in their last thirteen games since 2016.

Cousins is 1-5-1 ats in those games. The lone cover was at Philadelphia where they got a questionable sack and fumble for a touchdown. The lone push was at the Rams where they scored late to get the push in a seven-point loss.

They’ve scored more than 20 points in just three of those 13 games and they’ve allowed 21 or more in 10 of those 13 games. In those ten games, they’ve allowed 21 or more they’ve allowed more than 26 just twice. All up, they allow teams to score in the 20s but typically not more and struggle to get to 20 themselves.

Since Dak Prescott arrived the Cowboys have been home favorites 21 times. They have scored 24 or more in 17 of those 21 games, so there’s a good chance Minnesota allows at least 21-24 points or more and a good chance they don’t score more than 20. That doesn’t leave a big window to cover this game.

Since 2015, Cousins is 4-20 SU against teams who made the playoffs that year. He did defeat Philadelphia and they could make the playoffs this year but that is not counted in the above number.

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays but also both are in the top ten in defending big pass plays. The only team either of these teams has defeated that is above .500 is Philadelphia and they have lost to all of the other teams they have played currently over .500.

Minnesota will be without WR Adam Thielen which really hurts them in this game and the Dallas defense has improved as they have gotten players back healthy over the last few weeks. Both of these teams have struggled against the better defences they have faced this year and I see this game being a grind it out, on the ground, clock-consuming game that Dallas is likely to be more efficient in with better personnel on offense.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Dallas -3


LA Chargers at Oakland Raiders

Friday, Nov 8 at 12:20pm AEDT

This game applies to a very good under situation, which is 342-240-3. The Raiders would qualify in a momentum situation which is 47-12-2 if they are home dogs of two or more. My numbers favour the Raiders by 0.3 points and project 41.6 points.

The Chargers are 14-3-1 ats on the road as underdogs of six or less or favorites since 2017 when they became a relevant team again. They are also 6-1 to the under in that same time frame as road favorites.

Since Gruden arrived last year the Raiders are 3-0 ats as a home underdog to teams that didn’t make the playoffs. Will the Chargers make the playoffs this year? They could but right now that answer is no. He is also 3-0 to the under in those same games. These two have gone under in this series five straight games with none of those five games totalling more than 40 points.

The Chargers ran the ball on 56% of their plays last week but some of that may have been because they had a big lead. But they will face a Raiders defense that has defended the run pretty well this year.

Both of these teams have been above average throwing the ball this year and both have been below average defending the pass so we may see more throwing in this game. Oakland has allowed 24 or more in six of their eight games this year which are also the six best offences they have faced.

The Chargers have only scored more than 20 twice (not counting their game against Miami) but they are getting healthier on offence now.

This figures to be a game where both teams could get into the 20’s. Given the lack of pass defence for both teams I’d probably want to see a total higher than 51 before I would get involved on the under.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Oakland +1.5

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Monday, Nov 4 at 12:20pm AEDT

New England is slightly below average on offense on a yards per play basis but they are well above average on defense. NE has been successful on 46% of their plays and allows a success rate of 37%. The Patriots are an amazing plus-17 in turnover margin.

Baltimore is slightly below average on offense and is clearly below average on defense. Baltimore has been successful on 48% of their plays and allowed a successful rate of 45%. Baltimore is plus two in turnover margin.

NE lists a whole bunch of players as questionable.

The Ravens list a bunch of players questionable as well although S Earl Thomas says he will play and they may get CB Jimmy Smith back this week as well.

Baltimore qualifies in a home underdog momentum situation, which is 70-31-1. They also qualify in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 176-109-7 and 99-43-4. My numbers favor New England by 7.4 points and project 36.9 points.

NE is in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays and they are in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays. Meanwhile, Baltimore is in the bottom ten of the league in defending big pass plays.

NE is 19-7 to the under since 2016 as a road favorite.

The real question in this game is how improved is the Ravens defense after trading for CB Marcus Peters and getting CB Jimmy Smith likely back? If Baltimore’s defense is improved enough it could keep the Ravens in this game.

The Pats are allowing 4.6ypr this year and Cleveland dented them last week for 159 yards and in their two road games at Buffalo and Washington ran for 135 and 145. In Washington a long run off an end around accounted for almost half of those yards.

The Ravens run the ball 50% of the time for 204 yards per game. But, their passing offense has been well below average this year and while I don’t think NE can completely take away the running game for Baltimore, it remains to be seen if Baltimore can throw the ball if they have to.

On top of that, we think we know the NE defense is pretty good regardless of the schedule they have played. We don’t know how well the Ravens defense will play. Despite some good situations on Baltimore and a match up that appears it could work the value is still on NE and the under in this game. NEW ENGLAND 23 BALTIMORE 16.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – New England -3


Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Tuesday, Nov 5 at 12:15pm AEDT

Dallas is above average on offense and right around the mark on defense. Dallas has been successful on 53% of their plays and allows a success rate of 50%. Dallas is even in turnover margin.

Giants are basically average on offense and defense on a yards per play basis. They are successful on 44% of their offensive plays and allow a success rate of 45% while being minus nine in turnover margin.

Dallas qualifies in a post-bye road favorite situation, which is 46-19-0 but hasn’t been as good the last few years. Dallas also qualifies in a negative road favorite letdown situation coming off a good defensive performance in their previous game, which is 262-184-9 and plays against them here. This game also qualifies in a couple of under situations, which are 342-240-3, 63-22-2 and 54-15-0. My numbers favour Dallas by 4.1 points and project 39.5 points.

The Giants are in the bottom ten of the league in defending big pass plays. Since Dak Prescott came aboard in 2016 the Cowboys are 18-9 to the under in road games. They are 10-5 to the under as a road favorite. They’ve allowed more than 21 points in just two of those 15 games. Dallas struggled in this stadium about three weeks ago losing to the Jets 24-22.

The Giants’ two wins this year have come against teams with a combined three wins. Against teams over .500 such as the Cowboys they have lost by 18 (to these Cowboys), 4, 18 and 21 points. The only teams they’ve held below 27 points have been the Redskins and Bills.

The other problem for the Giants has been turnovers. They’ve had one game where they’ve forced more than one turnover and that was four turnovers vs Washington and Dwayne Haskins. Otherwise, they have failed to create more than one turnover in any other game. And, they’ve turned the ball over at least twice in 7 of their 8 games.

Dallas doesn’t force a lot of turnovers but the only two teams they’ve turned it over more than once was against NO and GB, two elite teams.

The Giants lack the secondary defense to stop the Cowboys on a consistent basis and that will likely be their downfall. The situations point towards the under and teams have run the ball a lot on the Giants this year to the tune of over 46%. But, the Giants’ defense has been poor this year and I don’t trust them to hold the Cowboys down enough in this game. DALLAS 27 NY GIANTS 17

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Dallas -6.5


San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Friday, Nov 1 at 11:20am AEDT

For SF LT Joe Staley is doubtful, RB Mike McGlinchey, FB Kyle Juszcyzk and CB Witherspoon are out.

RB Chase Edmonds is out for Arizona and RB David Johnson is a game-time decision.

Arizona qualifies in a big home dog role which is 62-30-1. This game qualifies in under situations which are 63-22-2 and 54-15-0. My numbers favour SF by ten points and project 40.8 points.

Arizona is yet to lose a fumble this year and hasn’t turned the ball over in four straight games. That’s a good sign of a team who is playing fundamentally good football. But this is going to be a tough matchup for them.

They have played four quality teams this year – lost at Baltimore by six with a late score to get within six points, lost by 18 at home to Carolina, lost by 17 at home to Seattle and lost by 22 at New Orleans last week.

So, as much as I like where they are going, they have struggled against the best competition they have faced this year. Now, they get maybe the best team or one of the top three teams in the league in San Francisco.

SF runs the ball well and Arizona has struggled to stop the run this year. The 49ers are running the ball about 58% of the time this year which is unheard of for an NFL team these days. And when they pass they are very effective.

They’ve allowed more than 13 points three times – 20 to Pittsburgh along with five turnovers that aided Pittsburgh, 17 to Tampa Bay including a pick-six, 17 to Cincinnati that included some garbage scores.

Short of SF turnovers (and Arizona has only forced seven this year) or garbage scores in the end (which is possible), it’s hard to see Arizona getting past 10-13 points. 49ers pass defence is also the best part of their defence so they match up well with what Arizona wants to do.

Arizona likes to throw the ball but has been well below average doing it this year and it doesn’t figure to get any easier on Thursday night.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 43

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

Tuesday, Oct. 29 at 11:20am AEDT

Pittsburgh qualifies in a few very good negative situations that play against average teams who are large favorites. Those situations are 132-58-5 and 306-205-9.

They also qualify in a contrarian situation playing on teams who don’t cover the spread vs teams who are covering the spread which is 217-131-13. My numbers favour Pittsburgh by 11.3 points and projects 42.6 points.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been much more successful than Josh Rosen. Fitzpatrick came in against Washington when the score was 17-3 and led Miami to two scores. Ultimately they lost when they couldn’t convert the two-point conversion at the end of the game.

But with Fitzpatrick in the game against Washington he was successful on 14 of 26 plays and last week 34 of 66 plays so he’s been successful on 52% of his plays the last two weeks. Miami also gets back CB Xavier Howard to help in the secondary.

Miami isn’t a good team but Pittsburgh isn’t a great offensive juggernaut right now either making this price tag pretty expensive when you consider Ryan Fitzpatrick is a veteran who knows how to run offences.

He has to avoid the turnovers but the situations and the line value are there for a shot with Miami. The Buffalo offence is better than Pittsburgh right now and Buffalo scored 24 points last week when you take away the onside kick touchdown.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Miami +14


Greenbay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, Oct. 28 at 11:20am AEDT

WR Davante Adams is out again for GB. They will likely get back S Darnell Savage.

QB Patrick Mahomes is out. DE Frank Clark, DT Chris Jones, CB Kendall Fuller, LT Eric Fisher, G Andrew Wylie are all out.

KC qualifies in a 70-31-1 home dog momentum situation. My numbers if Mahomes would have played in this game would have favoured KC by 2.2 points and projected 47.6 points.

Making at least a six-point adjustment would favor GB by at least 3.8 points and also reduce the total down to about 41.6 points.

Matt Moore will take over for Patrick Mahomes in this game. He’s had ten days to prepare and is a veteran and coached by Andy Reid.

If anyone can help Moore succeed it is Andy Reid. While Moore’s numbers were accumulated on much worse offences, he’s averaged a 3.6% interception rate (Mahomes is 1.6%), a sack rate of 7.4% (Mahomes is 4.0%) and 6.0 yards per pass (Mahomes is 8.2 yards per pass).

Moore could average more yards per pass simply because he’s now in Reid’s offence. But, he’s much less mobile so still figures to take on sacks. He’s also more likely to throw interceptions if asked to throw the ball down the field some.

I would think Andy Reid would try and control the ball with runs and short throws. The value here looks to be with the home dog.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Chiefs +5


Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings

Friday, Oct. 25 at 11:20am AEDT

For Washington TE Vernon Davis and RB Chris Thompson are out. S Montae Nicholson and CB Josh Norman are questionable. RB Adrian Peterson is also questionable.

The Vikings are pretty healthy with the exception of WR Adam Thielen who is out.

Washington qualifies in a 243-156-12 situation that plays on teams who have struggled to score in their past few games. They also qualify in a 48-11-3 situation based on them being shutout last week.

They also qualify in a 217-131-13 situation that plays on teams who haven’t covered the spread well vs teams who are covering the spread very well. This game also qualifies in a couple of under situations, which are 38-9-0 and 123-66-4. My numbers favour Minnesota by 11.3 points and project about 40.9 points.

Washington doesn’t figure to win this game straight up. Nothing earth-shattering with that statement. In their last 20 road games as underdogs that they’ve lost SU, they’ve allowed an average of 31.2 points per game.

Against the three best teams they have faced this year Philadelphia, Dallas and New England, they have allowed 31, 32 and 33 points.

On the other side, Minnesota has played three games at home this year and scored 28, 34 and 38 points. It only stands to reason, short of turnovers or injuries Minnesota likely gets to about 30-35 points in this game. If they have a big enough lead they are likely to go to their ground game.

They’ve run the ball 59% of the time in games they have been in control of and 64% of the time in their home games, which they have been in control of very early. It’s hard to see Washington getting to 20 or more points in this game unless Minnesota stops caring.

It’s a Thursday night game and there are much better opportunities to find value on Sunday. Maybe there is a little bit of value here on the dog and the under.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Washington Redskins +16.5

New England Patriots at New York Jets

Tuesday, Oct. 22 at 11:15am AEDT

Minus the Miami game and the first meeting with the Jets (without Darnold) NE is right around the league average offensively. Their defense has been very good so far. NE has been successful on 47% of their plays and allowing a success rate of just 37%. They are plus-seven in turnovers minus the Miami and NY games.

Meanwhile, in the Jets’ two games with Sam Darnold they are also right around the league average offensively. Their defensive numbers are quite good. They have been successful on 48% of their plays in those two games and allowing a success rate of 51%.

The Patriots qualify in a negative letdown situation, which is 72-33-3 and plays against them here. This game qualifies in an under situation, which is 54-15-0. My numbers favor NE by 9.9 points and project 34.3 points.

NE is 16-4 to the under as a road favorite of more than seven points going back to 2010. They are also 11-3 to the under in divisional games during that same time span. In those divisional games they are 3-3 to the under against Miami and 8-0 to the under against the Jets and Buffalo.

The Jets are now 5-0 to the over with Sam Darnold at quarterback and a home dog. The Patriots defense still hasn’t allowed more than ten points in a game. They allowed the Jets 14 points back in week three but those points came on a fumbled punt and an interception returned for a touchdown after Brady left the game. Last week the Giants scored 14 points but seven points came on a sack and fumble returned for a touchdown.

This may be the best offense NE has faced this year. That sounds crazy but is a statement on the low level of competition NE has faced up to this point. The Jets are likely to get CJ Mosley back this week after getting LB Brandon Copeland back last week. NE is in the top ten of the league in defending big pass plays and should limit the Jets in this game.

NE’s offense has not looked normal so far this year but their defense has been very good and protected any shortcomings of the offense. That being said, NE will be tested a little more in this game. The one weakness for the Jets in this game is their offensive line is very banged up.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – NY Jets +10


Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Monday, Oct. 21 at 11:20am AEDT

Philadelphia has struggled on offense this year and have been below average on defense but they may be getting some help this week with a few members of their secondary likely returning. They have been successful, however, on 49% of their plays and allow the opponent just a 44% success rate.

Dallas has been very good on offense but, like the Eagles, they’ve been below average on defense. They’ve been successful on 53% of their plays but are allowing a success rate of 52%.

LB Nigel Bradham, WR DeSean Jackson, DT Timmy Jernigan, CB Avonte Maddox, LT Jason Peters and RB Darren Sproles are out. CB Jalen Mills is activated and set to return this week.

Dallas CB Anthony Brown is out and a host of other starters are listed as questionable.

Philadelphia qualifies in a road dog role, which is 193-120-8 as long as they are getting three or more points. They also qualify in a few other road dog roles. This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 340-238-2. My numbers favor Dallas by one point and project 49.2 points.

The verdict is still out on how good Dallas really is. Their three wins this year have come against teams that are 3-14 in Washington, Miami and the Giants. One of those wins came because Washington and Miami played each other last week. The other two wins came after NY switched to Daniel Jones at quarterback while the Cowboys faced Eli Manning.

Meanwhile, Dallas has now lost three in a row and their defense has taken a big step back from last year. Dallas could also be missing key players on both sides of the ball again this week.

Philadelphia has their own problems but one area of strength has been their rush defense, which is allowing just 3.3ypr this year. If they can limit the Cowboys’ ability to rush the ball, they have a very good chance of winning this game. If they get some of their injured players back in the secondary this week that will help their defense tremendously.

The Eagles have traditionally given up points on the road and since Doug Pederson took over in 2016 in 14 road games as a road dog Philly has allowed 23 or more points in 13 of those 14 games. The only game they didn’t was the first against Chicago, who was an incompetent offense. They are also 10-2-2 to the over in those games. So, it is likely they will allow some points in this game although the Cowboys are very banged up on offense. Add in a much better coach on the Eagles sidelines and Philadelphia stands a very good chance of coming out of here with a victory.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Philadelphia Eagles +3


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Friday, Oct. 18 at 11:20am AEDT

For the Chiefs, they will be without LR Eric Fisher again and also G Andrew Wylie. WR Sammy Watkins is out as is DT Chris Jones and CB Kendall Fuller.

The Broncos will be without CB Bryce Callahan who hasn’t played yet this year.

This game qualifies in an under situation which is 340-238-2. My numbers favour Denver by 2.1 points and project about 43.9 points.

Patrick Mahomes had led his team to at least 26 points in each of his starts last year and this year (and a 2017 start to finish the season here in Denver) until two weeks ago. They have now gone two games in a row scoring just 13 and 24 points.

A lot of that can be attributed to not only Mahomes being banged up but his offensive line is banged up and the fact the opponent has held the ball for 37 and 39 minutes the last two weeks. The Chiefs also aren’t running the ball well at just 4.0ypr against teams allowing 4.7ypr.

They allow 5.2ypr themselves. KC has won here the last three years by three points twice and by four points last year.

Denver is 6-0 to the under and 5-1 ats in their last six games as a home dog. Denver shut out Tennessee last week and while they defeated the Chargers two weeks ago 20-13 the lone Chargers touchdown came on a punt return.

So Denver’s defence hasn’t allowed a touchdown for the last two games. There’s no question those two offences the last two weeks are not close to this Chiefs offence but Alexander Johnson stepped into a linebacker role two weeks ago and has been lights out for the Broncos in that time.

Denver is 9-1 under in their last ten homes game as a favourite or a dog. KC is banged up and on a short week. There is some value to Denver and potentially the under in this game.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Denver Broncos +3

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Tuesday, Oct. 15 at 11:15am AEDT

Detroit has not rushed the ball well but are slightly above average in the air. Their pass defense is slightly above average and overall the defense is right on the league benchmark. Detroit is averaging a 47% success rate and allowing a 44% success rate. They are plus two in turnover margin.

The Packers are above average on offense. On the other side of the ball they have struggled to stop the run but their pass defense has been good. The Packers are averaging a 45% success rate and allowing a 49% success rate. Part of the Packers’ success so far has been a plus-seven in turnover ratio.

WR Davante Adams is out for Green Bay but my numbers favour GB by 5.4 points and project 39.8 points. The Packers qualify in a very good Monday night situation, which is 45-13-2 and is consistently a winner year after year. This game qualifies in an under situation, which has traditionally been very good year after and is 337-237-2.

GB is 16-5 ATS as a home favorite of less than seven points since 2010 when Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback.

Matt Stafford is just 12-40 ATS when facing teams who made the playoffs that year and it appears GB will make the playoffs this year. The Lions are not running the ball well this year and are allowing 125 yards per game.

The Packers are allowing 138 yards rushing so both teams figure to be able to run the ball in this game. The Packers’ defense and ability to put pressure on the quarterback give them an edge in this game.

Couple the fact that Aaron Rodgers just doesn’t turn the ball over so if GB wins the turnover battle they stand an excellent chance to cover this short number. Despite not having WR Devante Adams GB should be able to run the ball and use short throws to keep the ball moving for them.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Green Bay -4.0


Pittsburgh Steelers at LA Chargers

Monday, Oct. 14 at 11:20am AEDT

The Steelers have really struggled to run the ball this year at just 3.5yards per rush against teams allowing 4.6ypr. The defense has been well above average against both the run and the pass. The Steelers have only been successful on 43% of their plays and are allowing a success rate of 47%. Pittsburgh is plus-five in turnover margin.

The Chargers offense is about average and the defense has been a little disappointing so far. The Chargers have only been successful on 43% of their plays and are allowing a 49% success rate. The Chargers are minus two in turnover ratio.

LB Mark Barron, RB Jaylon Samuels and WR James Washington are out for Pittsburgh.

RB Justin Jackson is doubtful for the Chargers.

My numbers favor the Chargers by 0.5 points and project 40 points. The Chargers would qualify in a contrarian situation that plays on teams who aren’t covering the spread vs teams who are covering the spread, which is 217-131-13 if they were favored by six or less.

The Chargers are a mess and lost C Mike Pouncey last week so they are now down their two best offensive linemen when you include LT Russell Okung who hasn’t played all year. They will now face a Steelers defense that is sacking the opponent on 10% of their pass attempts this year.

The question really becomes how well will Pittsburgh do with Delvin Hodges at quarterback replacing Mason Rudolph. Hodges looked OK last week but coming in for an injured quarterback mid-game vs starting a game that the opponent can scheme against you are two different things.

Short of Hodges being a mess, which he could be, I would expect a lower scoring game and the Steelers defense to keep Pittsburgh close while the Chargers defense is well below average so Pittsburgh should be able to stay in this game. The Chargers are just 5-10-1 ATS since moving to Carson and playing in the small soccer field where they really don’t enjoy much of a home field advantage.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 41.5


New York Giants at New England Patriots

Friday, Oct 11 at 11:20am AEDT

The Giants’ overall yards per play numbers are above average but their pass defense has been poor. They’ve been successful on about 47% of their plays vs allowing 46% success on defense. The Giants are -5 in turnover ratio.

New England has solid but not completely dominant yards-per-play numbers this season. They have been successful on 47% of their snaps and allowed a success rate of about 34%. NE is +7 in turnover ratio.

The Giants will be without several players for this game. RB Wayne Gallman and Saquon Barkley are out. WR Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram are also out.

For NE WR Phillip Dorsett is out. Several other players are questionable but all practiced in limited fashion.

My numbers favor NE by 16.8 points and project 40.3 points. This game qualifies in an over situation, which is 148-87-3. There are expected to be high winds in this game.

NE is now 10-3 ATS since 2015 as a double-digit home favorite. One of those losses was this year when they won by 16 points as 21 point favorites over the Jets. The Jets scored on a muffed punt and an interception return after Tom Brady had left the game. That’s always possible here as well.

I don’t normally get involved with these higher spreads. Not because of any kind of fundamental system or anything like that, but they can just swing heavily based on luck and late-game motivation. But for a bet here I’d back the Giants to keep it close enough.

The weather won’t be great so don’t expect a lot of points in this game but there’s always the chance of a ball going off somebody’s hands into a pick-six, or a sloppy hand-off in the red zone. So this is far from a glamorous pick but NY with the big head start is the play.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – NY Giants +17

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers

Tuesday, Oct 8 at 10:15am AEST

Cleveland have only succeeded on 39% of their offensive plays this season while allowing their opponent to succeed on 44% of their plays.

The Niners are succeeding on 52% of their plays and limiting their opponent to just a 37% succession rate. Their numbers are strong both offensively and defensively.

My numbers favour San Francisco by 8.2 points and project 41.5 points. The Browns qualify in a negative letdown situation which is 46-12-1 and plays against them here.

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the league defending big pass plays. We don’t know who will make the playoffs this year but we do know Cleveland has struggled since last year against teams who made the playoffs.

They’ve already lost to Tennessee and the Rams this year. They were 1-5 SU last year against teams who made the playoffs and I’m guessing the Rams will make the playoffs this year, making them at least 1-6 SU.

We will see if the 49ers make the playoffs but they are off to a good start. SF is 1-16 ats as a home favorite in their last 17 games. They are obviously better now than they were in many of those games in the past so that doesn’t concern me too much. Just like Cleveland is better than their 3-27 SU record their last 30 games as a road underdog.

Both teams sport better than average defenses and, if possible, Kyle Shanahan would like to run the ball. He’s running it on 56% of their plays so far this year. Limited possessions and long drives with the clock running help this game stay lower scoring.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 47.5


Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Monday, Oct. 7 at 10:20am AEST

Indianapolis’ season numbers are slightly below average on both sides of the ball. They are succeeding on 47% of their offensive plays and allowing the opponent to succeed on 49% of their plays.

KC has good offensive numbers as expected but their defense has been below average especially against the run. The Chiefs have been successful on 52% of their plays while allowing the opponent to be successful on 48% of their plays.

The Chiefs qualify in a negative 68-36-3 situation that plays against favorites who have allowed a lot of points in their last few games. My numbers favor the Chiefs by 10 points and project about 56 points.

If KC gets on top in this game, and that is likely, it will be hard for the Colts to come back. Indy is in the bottom ten of the league in big passing plays while KC is in the top ten. The Colts are in the top ten in defending big pass plays while KC is in the bottom ten of the league.

Since Andy Reid took over in KC, his teams are 15-3 to the Under when favored by seven or more at home. That includes going 3-0 to the Under last year with Mahomes as his quarterback. They’ve never allowed more than 23 points in any of those games and Mahomes and KC have totaled at least 26 points in every one of his starts going back to his lone start in 2017, and all of his starts last year and this year.

As good as Indy was last year they, didn’t play a ton of good teams and when they did play a playoff team they never scored more than 24 points. There’s a good chance they don’t get past 24 points in this game. KC is likely to get into the 30s unless Indy can run the ball early and slow the game down early on.

The line looks about right but there might be a little value on the Colts.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Indianapolis +11


LA Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Friday, Oct 4th at 10:20am AEST

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favour Seattle by one point and project about 47.7 points.

The Rams haven’t been road underdogs very often in the Sean McVay era. This will be just their fifth time they’ve been put in this role. They are 3-1 SU and ATS as a road underdog. The Seahawks three wins this year have come against teams with a combined record of 1-10-1.

They lost at home to the Saints, who are 3-1, and the success rate was heavily in favour of the Saints in that game despite the yards being in favour of Seattle. Both of these teams are in the top ten in defending big pass plays.

I don’t have any situations to point me one way or the other and one of my model’s points towards Seattle and one towards the Rams.

The Rams appear to be the better team from the line of scrimmage and are coming off a disappointing loss at home. This is a tough environment to play in, especially in prime time, but the Rams have succeeded here each of the last two years. A slight lean to the Rams.

There looks to be some value on the Under. The short week normally disadvantages the defences because they don’t have much time to prepare. But this is a division match-up and these teams scout each other heavily.

Both teams are likely to try and establish the run which should contain first-half scoring and help the full game Under. The Rams are unlikely to use their hurry-up offence as much as they have previously as they’ll be going up against the very noisy Seahawks crowd.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 50

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

Tuesday, Oct 1 at 10:15am AEST

Pittsburgh qualifies in a negative week four situation, which is 105-56-6 and plays against them here. The Bengals also qualify in a road dog situation, which is 193-120-8. My numbers favour Pittsburgh by just 1.3 points and project 45.2 points.

Cincinnati is just 5-19 SU in their last 24 road games as a road dog dating back to the beginning of the 2015 season, including being 0-7 SU in their last seven games as a road dog. But, they are 16-8 ATS in those same 24 games, including being 6-1 ATS in those last seven (six straight covers on the road as a dog).

The Steelers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite. In those same games they have gone 10-2 to the over. A lot of that is because Pittsburgh has scored with Roethlisberger at quarterback but their defense has also allowed 24 or more points in 8 of those 12 games.

Pittsburgh were gifted five turnovers last week and still lost the game. Mason Rudolph couldn’t throw the ball downfield.

I realise the Bengals defense is not good but their offense is in the top ten of the league in generating big pass plays and Pittsburgh’s defense is in the bottom ten of the league in defending big pass plays. That’s not a good sign for Pittsburgh.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Cincinnati +3.5


Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

Monday, Sep. 30 at 10:20am AEST

The Saints qualify in a home dog momentum role, which is 70-31-1. The Cowboys qualify in a couple of negative letdown road favorite situations, which are 75-28-4 and 262-184-9 and plays against them here. My numbers make this game closer to a pick ‘em and project 47.5 points.

The Saints are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2015, though I realise those games were with Drew Brees.

Since Dak Prescott joined the Cowboys they are 9-4 to the under as a road favorite. They’ve allowed more than 21 points in just one of those 13 games. They are also 8-4-1 ATS in those same games. In those games they have faced playoff teams only twice, going 1-1 ATS but the one cover was against Philadelphia during the last game of the season that didn’t mean anything to the Eagles.

So, they’ve been a road favorite just once against a playoff team and failed to cover. As road dogs of three or less, they are just 1-2 ATS against playoff teams from that year. So, they haven’t fared well against the better teams on the road as a favorite or short road dog.

We don’t know if NO will be a playoff team or not this year. One could argue they wouldn’t be if Brees wasn’t coming back, meaning with Teddy Bridgewater they aren’t a playoff team. This Saints defense is pretty good and getting them as three-point dogs at home offers some value.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – New Orleans +3.0


Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

Friday, Sep. 27 at 10:20am AEST

The early game this week has the 1-2 Eagles travelling to take on the unbeaten Packers.

Philadelphia has struggled to recapture their Super Bowl-winning form of 2017. They have been below average offensively in the first three games having missed wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson.

Last week Philly was successful on 44% of their plays versus only 37% for Detroit, but they gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown and the Lions kicked a field goal following a turnover in Eagles territory.

The Eagles have given up points on the road since Doug Pederson took over in 2016 but the Packers don’t look to be a competent offense right now, ranking just 27th in yards per game.

They won 27-16 at home over Denver last week including touchdowns on drives that started at the Denver five-yard line and 37-yard line following Broncos turnovers. GB won the turnover battle 3-0 but the Broncos were successful on 51% of their plays versus just 41% for GB. The Packers’ +6 in turnover margin has helped them to stay unbeaten so far.

GB is now 17-9-1 to the under in their last 27 with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback and the team favored. They are only scoring 24% of the potential points they could score. While they scored 38% of their potential points last week they only scored 26% of those points on drives that started inside their side of the field. So, when forced to drive the field, they are still struggling.

There is some value to the under in this game. Although they will get some players back this week, like Alshon Jeffery, Philly is still banged up on the offensive side of the ball. This game is destined for unders.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 46.5

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins

Tuesday, Sep. 24 at 10:15am AEST

Last week Denver scored to take the lead with less than a minute left at home against Chicago only to see the Bears kick a game-winning field goal with one second left on the clock to lose 16-14.

The hero of that game (Bears kicker Eddy Pineiro) is listed as questionable for this and if he isn’t able to go it would be a big blow as they lack any depth in the position.

Chicago has scored a total of just 19 points thus far with only one touchdown in two games. They have been successful on only 38.4% of their plays while allowing their opponent to be successful on 43.6% of their plays. Chicago has allowed just 24 points so far this season.

Washington was dominated at home in both passing and rushing by Dallas who won 31-21. The Cowboys scored on their final five drives of the game, excluding the final drive to end the game. The first of Washington’s touchdowns came on a drive that started at the Dallas 38 yard line.

The Redskins are averaging 5.8 yards per play but allowing 6.7. That equates to almost 48% success on their plays but they’re allowing almost 59% success against them. They are throwing the ball on over 73% of their plays.

The Redskins are holding their own in not getting sacked but are also not putting any pressure on the quarterback with less than 3% sacks allowed and gained on pass attempts.

The Redskins offence is averaging just 2.5 yards per rush which is the 3rd worst in the league. That will be difficult to improve against a Bears defence allowing just 3.0ypr. I don’t expect the Bears defence to give up many points in this game.

It really comes down to how many points can the Bears offence score. The Bears also lived off of their defence creating turnovers last year with 27 interceptions and a plus twelve in turnover differential.

So far this year they are even with just one turnover created. Without them creating more turnovers it becomes even that much more of a struggle for their offence.

In a game where there is no standout value, we’ll back the defences and play the Under.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 41


LA Rams at Cleveland Browns

Monday, Sep. 23 at 10:20am AEST

New Orleans suffered an early injury to QB Drew Brees and that pretty much sealed their fate on Sunday at the Rams in their 27-9 loss. Teddy Bridgewater struggled and so did the Saints defense the as Rams picked up ten points on drives that started inside the Saints territory.

The Jets entered the game without their starting quarterback and finished the game with their third-string quarterback and were unimpressive in their 23-3 loss at home to Cleveland.

They were strongly out-gained and out-passed. Cleveland did have an 89-yard touchdown pass but without that their offensive numbers were below average. Neither team was all that impressive as they both were successful on about 30% their plays.

The Rams have been successful on about 47% of their plays. Their opponents have been successful on only about 43% of their plays and just 1.3% of their opponents’ big passing plays.

The Browns are throwing the ball on about 66% of their plays and have some reasonable numbers. They are hitting on big pass plays on 13.6% of their pass attempts but allowing big pass plays on 11.1% of their opponents pass attempts.The offensive line hasn’t been great, allowing sacks on 9.9% of their pass attempts but they are sacking their opponents on 12.7% of their pass attempts.

The Browns have only succeeded on about 35% of their plays but are allowing their opponent to succeed on just 35% of their plays as well.

My numbers favor the Rams by 1.9 points and project about 46.2 points. Cleveland qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 70-31-1. The Rams also qualify in a road letdown situation, which is 262-184-9 and plays against the Rams here.

Cleveland hasn’t looked great in their first two games and were crushed in week one here by Tennessee 43-13. But, a closer look at that game reveals their defense wasn’t as bad as the score makes it look.

The Titans scored three touchdowns in that game on three drives which either started inside the Browns 40 yard line following interceptions or another drive that went 87 yards but was aided by 40 yards of Browns penalties.

While big plays can’t be ignored, if you take away a Derrick Henry 75-yard screen pass for a touchdown, Cleveland allowed only 4.8yppl. Take away two other passing plays of 51 and 47 yards and they allowed just 3.1yppl. Take away the two touchdowns that started inside the Browns 40 yard line, the touchdown that was aided by 40 yards of penalties and a one-play drive with the screen for 75 yards and Cleveland allowed just 15 points.

I realize it’s not that simple. You can’t ignore over 100 yards of penalties or a bunch of interceptions. If they keep doing that they won’t win many games regardless of how well their defense plays. But, the point is if they take care of the ball and cut down on the penalties, they have a chance to be in games and compete.

Under Sean McVay the Rams have been road favorites 13 times. They’ve scored 30 or more points in 10 of those 12 games and 23 or more in 12 of 13 games. They are just 1-3 ATS in games they are favored by three or less points on the road. Cleveland has a long history of not covering as a home dog but since last year they are 4-1 ATS.

Cleveland has high hopes but the fact remains they are just 1-5 SU against teams who made the playoffs last year. Until they can beat what is considered a good team I can’t get involved with them against what appears to be playoff teams.

At home Cleveland is now 19-7-1 to the under in their last 27 home games, including 15-5 to the under as a home dog.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Under 47.5


Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Friday, Sep. 20 at 10:20am AEST

Tennessee gave up a late touchdown last week to fall behind 19-17 and failed on the ensuing drive to get into field goal position. Neither team had much success offensively but Tennessee scored ten points on drives that started inside Colts territory.

Jacksonville scored late at Houston and was denied on a two-point conversion that would have given them the lead very late and fell 13-12. Jacksonville out-rushed and out-passed Houston and he Texans’ only touchdown came on a drive that started at the Jacksonville 11-yard line following a fumble by Jacksonville.

The Jags’ defensive front four has a clear advantage over the Titans’ offensive line that is without starting LT Taylor Lewan and starting RG Kevin Pamphile. Couple this edge with a Jalen Ramsey-led secondary and the results lead to a long night for Mariota and the Titans’ run game.

Competing is in Ramsey’s DNA and he will play lights out good even if disgruntled. The Jags don’t give up a lot of points at home when not facing an elite offense.

I also expect the Jaguars’ offense to look a lot smoother here. Left Tackle Cam Robinson is returning from injury and will start. This should have an immediate impact in pass protection which will allow offensive coordinator John DeFilippo more personal and play call flexibility.

The Jags as a small home dog is the play in this one.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Jaguars +1.5

Cleveland at NY Jets

Tuesday, Sep. 17 at 10:15am AEST

Cleveland was brutal on both sides of the ball in their home opening 13-43 loss to Tennessee. The Browns were -3 in turnover margin and were sacked on 11.6% of their pass attempts but they did sack Tennessee on 14.3% of their pass attempts.

The Jets blew a 16-0 lead to Buffalo in their 17-16 loss at home. NY was +3 in turnover margin, which was the only thing that kept them in the game as their offensive numbers were poor.

QB Sam Darnold has been ruled out for this game and likely many more games to come.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Cleveland by 6.1 points and project about 49.9 points.

I released the over on this game and then it was announced Sam Darnold would not play because of mono. The same day Le’Veon Bell received an MRI, although it doesn’t sound serious and Bell will likely play.

Trevor Siemian will take over for Sam Darnold. I am not a fan of Siemian but for our betting purposes, Siemian has basically the same interception percentage, sack percentage and yards per attempt as Darnold but obviously carries more experience than Darnold. There’s a good chance LB CJ Mosley won’t play in this game and DL Quinnen Williams may miss this game as well for the Jets.

Since the beginning of last season, the Jets have allowed at least 27 points in six of their nine home games. The only teams they held below 27 points were anemic Denver and Miami offenses last year and Buffalo last week but four Bills turnovers did in the Bills.

I expect Cleveland to get to at least the 27 point mark in this game. Since taking over as the starting quarterback for Cleveland, Baker Mayfield produced points on the road when not playing the better than average defenses. He’s led his team to 42, 23 and 35 points against the below-average defenses he’s faced.

Other than an anemic offense at Denver, the Browns defense has also allowed at least 20 points and the 20 they allowed to Cincinnati was also a depleted Bengals offense last year. They allowed at least 26 points to the other teams once Mayfield took over.

It’s very likely both teams can get into the 20s in this game and if they do that we have a good chance to go over the total. Siemian is less mobile than Darnold but in a spot start he is more than capable of doing some damage against this Browns team. The Browns should also be motivated on offense with their dismal showing last week. CLEVELAND 28 NY JETS 23

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Over 44


Philadelphia at Atlanta

Monday, Sep. 16 at 10:20am AEST

Philadelphia fell behind 17-0 early before rallying and defeating Washington 32-27 at home last week. Both teams struggled to run the ball but were OK in the air.

Atlanta got their doors blown off early in Minnesota and could never recover in a 28-12 loss which saw them score two late meaningless touchdowns to end the game. The Falcons were poor offensively and were -3 in turnover margin which allowed Minnesota short fields for two of their touchdowns.

Both teams are healthy for this game, although last week Philadelphia did lose DT Malik Jackson for the season.

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favour Atlanta by 1.1 points and project about 48.6 points.

The Eagles look likely to give up some points in this game. This is what they’ve done on the road since Doug Pederson took over in 2016. In 25 road games, Philly has allowed 23 or more points in 18 of those 25 games. The games they didn’t were two against the Bears, two against the Redskins, one against a depleted Cowboys offense and against the Giants late in the year last year.

In other words, against competent offenses these teams have scored their share of points against Philly. They are also 15-8-2 to the over in those games.

Atlanta’s offense has been much better at home than on the road. Since Matt Ryan arrived in 2008 Atlanta is 11-5 ATS as a home dog.

With all of that said, this isn’t a great match up for Atlanta’s weak offensive line against a very stout Philadelphia defensive line. If Ryan has time to throw he should be able to find holes in the Eagles secondary. My numbers point to a slightly lower scoring game than the total so I will respect those numbers. ATLANTA 24 PHILADELPHIA 23

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Atlanta +2


Tampa Bay at Carolina

Friday, Sep. 13 at 10:20am AEST

Tampa Bay cost themselves the game in week 1 by turning the ball over four times including two pick-six interceptions along with costly penalties. The defence, on the other hand, was lights out good in new defensive coordinator Todd Bowles scheme.

They played excellent against the run while keeping the 49ers from scoring a touchdown on three visits to the red zone. The Bucs are heading in the right direction under Bruce Arians and I really like what I saw from the defence. It will be interesting to see how Jameis Winston bounces back in week 2.

Carolina also lost the turnover battle in week 1 against the Rams. Outside of Christian McCaffrey the offence was stagnant and flat while Cam Newton seemed disinterested. The offensive line will have their hands full with the Bucs at the line of scrimmage making it difficult to run the ball.

It will be up to offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s play-calling and willingness to throw on 1st and 2nd downs to get the offence going or it could be a long night for Panther fans.

I like where the Bucs are headed with Arians and Bowles and believe the defence is for real. But it’s still too early for me to get overly excited until a clearer picture on Winston executing the offence develops.

On the Panthers side, I see a talented team that has become stagnant under Ron Riviera so they are a no go for me.

There are better opportunities available this weekend but if you are betting this game I’d suggest the Bucs.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Tampa Bay +7

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints

Tuesday 10 September at 9:10am

Houston were about average on offense last year but were above average throwing the ball. The rush defense was very good but they were below average defending the pass. Overall, they were average on defense.

The Saints were an above-average offense last year both on the ground and in the air. The defense was very good against the run but slightly below average defending the pass and about average overall.

The Texans traded away Jadeveon Clowney for almost nothing but as good as Clowney was, Houston was deep at the position.

They also traded for LT Laremy Tunsil. While they probably gave up too much for Tunsil it’s a sign they are all in to try and win it now. If that happens it will be all worth it. Houston wasn’t great in the secondary last year and they lost two of their better players during the offseason so it remains to be seen how good they will be defending the pass this year.

The Saints swapped running backs and added TE Jared Cook to help the offense get even better than it was last year but they are replacing C Max Unger who was a mainstay for this offense for a number of years.

My numbers favor the Saints by 8.1 points and project about 50.7 points. Houston qualifies in a negative week one situation, which is 51-15-8 and plays against Houston here. The Saints also qualify in a very good 83-36-4 week one situation.

DeShaun Watson has been a tough out on the road as a dog in his brief career. He is 5-1-1 ATS as a road dog and has never lost a game by more than seven points. That seven-point loss was at NE in the opening game last year 20-27. He is also 0-4 SU in the four games against teams who made the playoffs in those years. So, he hasn’t defeated a good team on the road but has been competitive in those games. In those same games against good teams, the Houston defense has allowed 27, 32, 36 and 41 points.

Tunsil will help the Texans offensive line but the rest of this line is still very bad The situations and the value are on the Saints’ side in this game but Watson is a competitor and that back door is always open for him.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – New Orleans -6.5


Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

Tuesday 10 September at 12:15pm

Denver ran the ball well last year but they struggled terribly throwing the ball so were slightly below-average overall on offense. The defense allowed just 22 points per game against teams averaging 25 points per game but were about average at the line of scrimmage.

The Raiders were below-average on offense and minus seven in turnover margin and that all translated to scoring only 18 points per game against teams allowing 24 points per game. Their pass defense was horrible and run defense below average.

Denver brings in Vic Fangio as head coach. Fangio has been a very good defensive coordinator over the years. The Broncos’ defense was elite just a few years ago but started to slip a little over the last few years with players leaving for a bigger payday.

Fangio has brought in Kareem Jackson and Bryce Callahan to help solidify the backend of the defense. He also brought in QB Joe Flacco to have someone resemble a quarterback for the first time since Peyton Manning was here.

My numbers favor Denver by 3.8 points and project about 44.7 points.

The Raiders have added WR Tyrell Williams, G Richie Incognito and LT Trent Brown to help a below-average offense. Incognito is suspended and G Gabe Jackson is hurt and may miss this game.

Oakland were a mess last year and based on what’s happened during the preseason may still be a mess. They brought in WR Antonio Brown but he has been released already and this is a big loss for this offense and especially in this matchup.

The Raiders are down two offensive linemen and now their most explosive receiver. They are now left with just a bunch of receivers. The TE position is void of talent as well with Jared Cook moving on to the Saints. It remains to be seen what the Broncos have on offense but Joe Flacco is an upgrade at the quarterback position even if he doesn’t have much left in the tank.

Emmanuel Sanders is back, Courtland Sutton has a year under his belt in the NFL and Denver has upgraded their secondary to go along with the elite status of Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. I expect this defense to be very good this year and they could shut down this Raider offense with ease in this game. The Raiders defense was awful last year and they haven’t added much to improve it. The season hasn’t even started yet and the Raiders are already in trouble.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Denver -2.5


Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

Monday 9 September at 10:20am

The Steelers struggled to run the ball last year but, once again, they threw the ball very well. The defense was very good across the board.

New England is a very tough team to measure because they always play better than their numbers. They were average running the ball but had a better than average passing game. The defense was below average defending the run and pass.

NE allowed just 20 points per game against teams averaging 22 points per game. The scoring numbers are most important and a great example of where the stats don’t always make NE look good but the most important stat, which is scoring, is above average.

The Steelers enter the season without Le’Veon Bell who they played without last year and also WR Antonio Brown. This could be a case of addition by subtraction. The general cohesiveness of the team may be better than it has been in a long time. And, with all the hype being given to the Browns the Steelers are kind of operating under the radar.

For NE there has been a decent amount of additions and subtractions on both sides of the ball. Trent Brown, Trey Flowers and Rob Gronkowski are all gone. Now C David Andrews is out for the year with a blood clot. Michael Bennett arrives but the two constants they’ve had each year are Brady and Belichick. And, quite frankly, that’s all the Patriots need to have a fighting chance each year.

The Patriots also have some weapons at the receiver position with Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Demaryius Thomas. If Thomas can be just a portion of what he was in Denver this will be a very explosive receiving lineup for NE.

My numbers using last year’s home and away numbers favor the Pats by 9.5 points and project about 46.6 points. The Steelers qualify in a negative week one situation, which is 51-15-8 and plays against Pittsburgh here. The Pats also qualify in a week one 76-34-4 situation.

Since 2001 NE is 56-21-7 as a home favorite of seven or less. The Pats just seem to cover year after year when laying a manageable number at home. The Steelers have been pretty good as a road dog as of late, having gone 6-0 ats in their last six games in the role of a road dog.

NE has just been very good over the years at home while Pittsburgh is not as efficient on the road. Pittsburgh scored about 10% less than their potential points on the road last year versus their games at home. Meanwhile, NE scored about 12% more of their potential points at home and allowed about 12% less at home.

This is a home road dichotomy between these two teams. Some value and good situations in NE’s favor.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – New England -5.5


Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Friday 6 September at 10:20am

For the first time since 2006 the Packers have a new head coach. Former Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur has taken charge and normally when a new coach and system is implemented I err on the side of caution early in the season.

that is not the case with the situation in Green Bay because Aaron Rodgers high football IQ displaces that normal learning curve. Rodgers is healthy, happy, motivated and excited in implementing LaFleur’s run first offence.

The run game will excel behind a good and finally healthy offensive line led by LT David Baktiari and the surprising emergence of rookie LG Elgton Jenkins who will not only provide depth but likely supplant Lane Taylor as the starter. The ability in establishing the run will allow Rodgers to take advantage of play-action and work wonders for TE Jimmy Graham.

The best decision LaFleur made after his hire was retaining defensive coordinator Mike Pettine from last year’s staff. The Packers defence was on an upswing under Pettine last year and should be much improved this season.

The organization doubled down by being big spenders in free agency on that side of the ball. Last year’s weakness (safeties) is now a strength with the addition of veteran Adrian Amos and rookie Darnell Savage, who is exactly that, a savage. Savage’s impact will be immediate with the help of Amos coaching him up in regards to pre-snap adjustments.

The linebacker unit was also upgraded with the additions of Za’darius Smith and Preston Smith. Jaire Alexander is a Pro Bowl-calibre cornerback who I expect to have a breakout year.

The Packers revamped secondary should have no problem shutting down the Bears wide receivers and tight ends which will allow the linebackers to roam, spy or rush Bears QB Mitch Trubisky in passing situations.

Green Bay looks good value here on the moneyline and plus the points.

Betting Strategy

 BACK – Packers +3.0


Current Results

Total Units Staked: 63

Total Units Returned: 51.65

ROI: -13.25%

Each bet is 1 unit.


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