It’s Conference Championship week so let’s start with something I like to monitor each year and keep updated. Since 1970 there has been 47 years’ worth of Championship games or in other words 94 games played. A situation I have monitored over the years is to simply play the team with the better defence. In this situation we define the better defence as the team who has allowed the fewer points during the regular season. For this year those teams are Jacksonville and Minnesota.
Over those 47 years by simply playing on these teams you would have gone 59-31-3 65.6% ats with one game not applying because both teams allowed the same amount of points. A further breakdown of those games tells us in 20 of those years you would have won both games and in 5 of those years you would have lost both games. In 18 of those years you would have gone 1-1. In the other four years you had a push and a loss, a push and a win and the one year a loss when the other game didn’t apply. So, 21 winning years and 7 losing years calling 1-1 years even if though the juice would be a slight loss.
This situation always serves as a starting point for me but doesn’t force my hand into these teams each year. And, since 2000 it has won both games 4 times, lost both games 3 times and gone 1-1 10 times so it hasn’t been as productive the last 17 years as it was the previous 30 years.
Also, since 1970, when laying less than 10 points the SU winner in these games is 78-3-2 ATS. Essentially, pick the SU winner and you have the ats winner as well. Since 2009, this is 13-3 ats so all three losses have come within the last eight years.