Wentworth Park, Saturday 26th March 2016: The Form Hound

 

R5 Group 1 Association Cup Final – 720m 

Track Record: Sweet It Is 41.52 seconds (22/8/15)

Past Winners

2015 – Space Star

2014 – Sweet It Is

2013 – Fancy Liza

2012 – Miata

2011 – Seek and Destroy

Race Analysis

Come On Fantasy was never headed in her heat win and ran slick time, however an interesting fact is she has never won two starts in a row since December 2014, whether this is because she puts absolute everything into her wins and is then flat next start is a possibility, but she should lead for a long way here but may tire late. At her short odds I will be looking for value instead but I am not game to bet against her.

Ryno’s Raider hasn’t had much luck in recent starts and lost momentum at a crucial point here last week, he could get out to ridiculous odds here. I just loved the run of Madliena Girl in her heat, she copped a hammering early in the race and kept chasing her heart out and flew home into a placing, I could see her running a great race here and she is worth following going forward. Phantom Reign loves racing from Box 1 but I don’t think he has the class to win a Group 1 race.

Whittaker has a poor draw and I have never quite been convinced he is a group quality stayer. Lioness Lulu has been in career best form but has a terrible record from the extreme draw and she may end up being way too short in betting. I can’t have Serena Nimbus who has a poor strike rate over this trip. Dublin Bull is the X Factor, at his best he is capable of winning this race on his ear but can make terrible mistakes and I would prefer him from a wide draw.

Field & Stats

1. Phantom Reign: Best 42.32, First split of 16.38 last week. Box 1 Bandit with 5 career wins this draw. Never missed a placing from this draw over this trip.

2. Come on Fantasy: Best 41.92, recorded in her heat win (quickest). Led all the way in heat with 16.23 first split. Does best racing from this draw (5 wins). Placed in Group 1 Zoom Top and Sale Cup. Hasn’t won two starts in a row since December 2014.

3. Dublin Bull: Best 42.26, recorded this time in heat win. First split of 16.28 in heat but has a first split PB of 16.05. In the money four from five starts this draw.

4. Ryno’s Raider: Best 42.43. First split of 16.59. Finalist in Group 2 Summer Distance plate here and Group 1 Zoom Top. Ran third in heat.

5. Madliena Girl: Best 42.45, recorded this time in heat, first split of 16.87. Never missed a placing here in three starts. One win and one placing this box from two starts.

6. Whittaker: Best 42.10, ran second in heat with time of 42.42. First split of 16.43. Has won from every box. Seven of 17 careers wins Box 5-8.

7. Serena Nimbus: Best 42.27. Ran second in heat with a first split of 16.45 and 42.63 overall. Only one win from nine starts over this trip. Six of nine career wins Boxes 1-4.

8. Lioness Lulu: Best 42.09, recorded this time in heat win. First split of 16.37. Zero wins from nine starts from Box 8. Heat win was her first start at the track.

9. Tizza Nitro: 1st emergency. Best 42.66 recorded in heat placing. First split of 16.50. Has won three of her past four starts.

10. No Donuts: 2nd emergency. Best 41.97, fourth in heat last week. Two time Group 1 winner. First split PB of 15.97 (quickest). Two wins from four starts this trip.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ryno’s Raider (4) >$9.00 for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE)  Madliena Girl (5) > $4.20 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Lioness Lulu (8) < $12.00 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Whittaker (6) < $10.00 for 2 units

 

R7 Group 1 Golden Easter Egg Final – 520m 

Track Record: Shakey Jakey 29.07 seconds (6/4/14)

Past Winners

2015 – Fernando Bale

2014 – Tonk

2013 – Grigorieva Bale

2012 – Don’t Knocka Him

2011 – Radley Bale

Race Analysis

I happily took Moreira on in his semi final here last week as I didn’t believe he could win from Box 8. Now he gains an inside draw which is right up his alley. He has been showing great track sense of late and even if he slightly misses the start he should be able to push through strongly and prove too good. Dawkins Bale has a knack of pinging the lids from tricky draws and he has a great record here and could lead for a long way.

Brad Hill Billy scored an amazing last to first win here in his semi final that had to be seen to be believed, missing the start here may be a blessing as he can rail through and finish powerfully. Knight Spright and Rare Pearl look poorly drawn here and may get shuffled back early but both could flash home late if given early room. Mitcharlie Mia will require a career best run to cross the field cleanly and I wouldn’t put it past her, if there was trouble behind she could be off and gone in front. Asa Killa Queen looks outclassed here and I can’t see her winning. Blue Revolver has a very poor draw and will likely struggle.

Field & Stats

1. Moreira: Best 29.88, recorded this time in heat win, 1st split of 5.59 in semi final, only 1 start from Box 1 for a placing, in the money 5 from 5 Box 2. Recent Australian Cup finalist.

2. Brad Hill Billy: Best 29.37. Won his semi final heat in 29.85. Scored a last to first win in semi final. Amazing 16 of 18 placings over this trip including 8 wins. 4 wins and 5 placing from 9 starts this box.

3.Rare Pearl: Best 29.58. Won semi final in 29.98 with a first split of 5.55. Seven wins over this trip. In the money four from five starts this box. Suited to run on bias.

4. Dawkins Bale: Best 29.47. Won his semi final in 29.71,  first split of 5.40. Runner up in this race last year when he ran PB of 29.47. Four wins from this draw.

5. Knight Sprite: Best 29.72. Runner up in heat and semi final. Only one win from five starts Box 5. 10 career wins from outside two boxes (18 starts). Group 2 Gosford Cup winner. Placed in his past 10 starts.

6. Asa Killa Queen: Best 29.90, runner up in heat and semi final, quick first splits of 5.43 and 5.47. One from one this draw. Hasn’t finished worse than second in her past five.

7. Blue Revolver: Best 29.92. Third and second in heat and semi. 5.44 best first split. Zero wins from four starts this draw. Best stats come from Box 8 (3 wins).

8. Mitcharlie Mia: Best 29.82, recorded this time in heat win. Has won six of her past seven starts. Best first split of 5.47 recorded in heat win. Never missed a placing this draw.

9. Black Bear Lee: 1st emergency. Best 29.69. Has PB 5.38 firstt split. Placed in 18 of 23 starts this trip including 11 wins. Heat win here was in 29.98.

10. Marley Bale: 2nd emergency. Best 29.83, recorded this time in heat win. First split of 5.52 recorded in semi final. Placed in Group 1 Silver Chief at The Meadows in January.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Moreira (1) >$2.5 for 4 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Mitcharlie Mia (8) > $6 for 1 unit