Wentworth Park, Saturday June 25 2016: The Form Hound – Peter Mosman Final

Posted: June 25, 2016

R8 Peter Mosman Final 520m Group 1

Track Record

Shakey Jakey 29.07 seconds (6/4/2014)

Recent Winners

2015 – Fernando Bale

2014 – Bessy Boo

2013 – Xylia Allen

2012 – Garrick Bale

2011 – Allen Harper

Race Analysis

Ritza Lenny has come up with a sensational draw here, I have been with him through his heat and semi wins and there is no way I am jumping off now. He slightly missed the start in his semi and still pushed through strongly and I am hoping he can begin more cleanly and lead all the way.

Buck Forty has no early speed but is also superbly drawn and should stick to the rail, click through his gears to finish powerfully. He’ll swoop late. El Magnifico has been in strong form and is undefeated through this series. I believe his draw will work against him here, most likely to struggle to cross the field cleanly. His box manners can’t quite be trusted either. Invictus Rapid was tough in his semi-final placing and has been beginning consistently. He’s a knockout if he jumps well.

Shima Song seems to be improving every start and I was surprised she began so well last week, I am not sure she can do that again and I thought her overall time should have been quicker last week seeing she was ‘on the bunny’. Tap Out Scarlett and Runway Idole can both show early pace but look outclassed here. Both would need to lead clearly to win and I can’t see that happening. Zambora Idol is a risky beginner and he is likely to get shuffled back early and finish near the rear.

Field and Stats

1. Ritza Lenny: Best 29.71. Won semi final in 29.82 with a first split of 5.56. Has 5.44 first split PB. Three from three Box 1. 10 wins from 12 starts Boxes 1 to 3.

2. Buck Forty: No Best time. Ran second in heat and semi (best of these times 29.98). Never raced from this draw, 2 wins and 2 placings from 5 starts Box 1. Group 2 Launching Pad winner at Sandown Park. Best first split of 5.69.

3. Shima Song: Best 30.07. Ran this time in semi final with a first split of 5.55. Has won four of past five starts. Three from three this draw. Led all the way in semi final.

4. Invictus Rapid: No best time, ran second in semi final in time of 30.02, first split of 5.52. One win from two starts this draw. Seven of 12 career wins Boxes 1-4.

5. Tap Out Scarlet: Best 30.10, placed in both heats, best overall time was 30.21 with first split of 5.46. Has slick 5.39 first split PB. Only 3 of 9 career wins Boxes 5-8.

6. Runway Idole: Best 30.22. Led all the way in heat in 30.36, first split of 5.49. Runner up in semi final in 30.22. Four of six career wins Boxes 6-8.

7. Zambora Idol Best 30.02. Won semi final in 30.16 with a first split of 5.55. Only one start this draw for a placing. Three wins and placing from four starts Box 6.

8. El Magnifico: Best 29.59. Recorded this time in heat win, led all the way in semi final in 29.72 with a first split of 5.50. One from one this draw but eight of 10 career wins from Boxes 1-4.

9. Unlawful Entry: First emergency. No best time. Second in heat and third in semi final. Ran 30.06 with a first split of 5.56 in heat. Sandown Park Track record holder (28.95).

10. Nangar Thunder: Second emergency. Best 30.02. Been in the money past six starts, Ran third in heat in semi running 30.23 with a first split of 5.68. Five of seven career wins Boxes 5-8.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ritza Lenny > $2.20 (4 units)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Invictus Rapid > $9.00 (1 unit)

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Buck Forty > $1.55 (1 unit)

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) El Magnifico < $3.90 (1 unit)

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