Wentworth Park Saturday 30th January 2016: The Form Hound

Posted: January 28, 2016

Form Hound

Wentworth Park Saturday 30th January 2016

 

Distance: 530m

Track Record: Shakey Jake 29.07 sec  (April 2014)

Winning Box Stats (2016)

1-21%

2-17%

3-17%

4-10%

5-4%

6-8%

7-8%

8-15%

 

Group 1 National Futurity Final – Wentworth Park 520m

 

Past Winners

2015 – Zipping Midge: Time 29.80 Margin 3 lengths

2014 – Rue De Kahn: Time 29.49 Margin 4.75 lengths (note held at The Gardens)

2013 – Sometimes Speedy:  Time 29.40 Margin 2.75 lengths (The Gardens)

2012 – Midnight Capers:  Time 29.55 Margin 7 lengths (The Gardens)

2011 – Crystin Bale: Time 29.95 Margin 1 length (The Gardens)

Winning Times, Splits and Speed Map

There isn’t exactly an abundance of early pace here with only two of the greyhounds breaking 5.50 for the first split in their heats – those being  Natahli Dedee and Lyka Allen. The best winning time was by Dyna Maddie in 29.70 which was almost half a second quicker than the next best by Natahli Dedee. The map will probably be 1, 6 and 8 all coming out running with the 3 just on their backs looking for the rails.

Major Players

DYNA MADDIE (3): Ran the quickest time in the heats by 0.46 seconds which equates to about 6-7 lengths. She is a mad railer who’s three wins from 10 starts have come from either Box 1 and 2. She is very strong and if she can camp off them at the first turn she may just hit the rails, bump the 1 out the way and prove too good. Trainer Andrea Dailly is no stranger to winning races and she is one of only three dogs to break 30 seconds in the field. Look out if she gets a clear passage.

NATAHLI DEDEE (1): Had a split of 5.47 in its heat and held on well to win in 30.16. Has won 8/13 and won from Boxes 1-6. Likely to be the early leader and that’s the place to be in any race.  Can tend to be a touch vulnerable at the tail end of its races and if one of these strong dogs is on its tail then it is trouble.

FANTASTIC SKYE (8): Is the other early speed dog here but is it better suited inside? Two wins from Box 7 suggests no but in these types of races it’s hard to cross from the pink box. She has won 10/20 so no doubt knows how to find the line, however in her last two starts she’s faded into second spot and would need to obtain a very big lead in the early stages to hold them off.

CASH IN MOTION (4): Walked out last week and found about 20 checks before powering home strongly to win, albeit the first two dogs fought down the home straight. Will need a ton of luck however the winner of 15/32 will be finishing off the race very well.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Dyna Maddie (3) >$2.00 for 2.50 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Fantastic Skye (8) <$7.00 for 1 unit

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Cash In Motion (4) < $8.00 for 1 unit

 

 

Group 1 National Derby Final – Wentworth Park 520m

 

Past Winners

2015 – Fernando Bale: Time 29.87 Margin 2.25 lengths

2014 – Zipping Brock: Time 29.46 Margin Nk (note held at The Gardens)

2013 – Jagger Swagger: Time 29.66 Margin 2.25 lengths (The Gardens)

2012 – Sure As: Time 29.45 Margin 3 lengths (The Gardens)

2011 – Bogie King: Time 29.67 Margin HD (The Gardens)

Winning Times, Splits and Speed Map

This is the opposite to the Futurity in that six of the eight dogs broke 5.50 for their first split last week with the best being Spritely Dancer at 5.41. The best winning time was also by Spritely Dancer in 29.71. The map is most interesting with Sleek Master a quick beginner who looked to step right last time which may mean it will collide with Pedro Cerrano. Diego Bale loved the open spaces of the Box 8 last time so it may be the beneficiary of this. Spritely Dancer was quick out last week but is a keen railer which may mean Magic Spring gets a good cart across.

Major Players

DIEGO BALE (3): Was awesome last week after balancing up led he showed tremendous acceleration from Box 8 clearing them easily and leading by four lengths at the first turn. He ran a quick time of 29.83 at his second look at the Glebe circuit. Yet to win from Box 3 however has won five from Boxes 1 and 2. The possible early scrimmage between 1 and 2 may allow this dog to scoot through and lead.

MAGIC SPRING (6): Another one that may benefit from the speed map. The 5 dog will likely begin fast and spear to the left thus possibly taking out the 4 dog OR it will miss the start from the squeeze box. Either way he should be able to zoom down the outside. He loves the wide boxes having won six times from 11 out of Boxes 6-8. Ran home well behind Asa Killa Queen last week only beaten ¾ length in 29.95.

SLEEK MASTER (1): Jumped straight right last week and somehow got to the outside of the 5 dog – loomed up on the turn but couldn’t run it down. If trainer David Murray can teach the dog to jump straight then it may be off and gone as its first split last week was quick at 5.45. Hasn’t missed a place in eight attempts here and is a definite player.

PEDRO CERRANO (2): Flying at the minute. H has an career record of 14 from 32 starts and has three win from nine visits to the track. Loves the inside boxes having won four out of five from the inside 2. If he can manage to avoid the 1 dog then it’s a definite each way chance.

NANGAR FLAME (7) and GOOD ODDS OCKER (8): Both have come up relatively short in pre-post markets yet I cannot see why. Both look to be better suited to inside draws and neither of them looked like breaking 5.50 for their first splits. It’s invariably difficult to cross from Boxes 7 and 8 in good fields and we will be taking them on for sure.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Diego Bale (3) > $4.00 for 1.5 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Magic Spring (6) > $4.00 for 1.2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Nangar Flame (7) < $6.00 for 1 unit

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Good Odds Ocker (8) < $8.50 for 0.75 units