Warwick Farm, Wednesday 2nd March 2016: The Betfair Insider Trial Analysis

Posted: March 2, 2016 at 9:59 am

Track: Good 3

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Wednesday 2nd – Max 30. Partly Cloudy

 

R2 McGrath Estate Agents Plate 3YO SW Maiden 1200m

Dry conditions in Sydney should contribute to an on pace advantage at Warwick Farm. With 3mm of irrigation placed on the track over the past 24 hours the fence should be slightly inferior. Expecting a moderate tempo based on the speed map below.

Speed Map

Trial Analysis Warwick Farm 0203

Major Players

3. Harness: Godolphin debut a flashy chestnut gelding who has always shown plenty of ability at the trials. He was given a two trial prep in October and November last year before coming back in February with an important 1050m trial. He generally jumps well and looks to find the lead. The jockeys that have ridden him have had to restrain him as he looks keen to get on with things however he has looked really strong when running through the line in all three trials which shows me he is well above maiden company.

4. Intrusion: First up last time in he was only narrowly beaten by La Romain who has since run second the in the Group 3 Eskimo Prince and Group 2 Hobartville Stakes. That puts him in with a great chance in a mid-week maiden. Add to this he has been gelded and given the one quiet trial since. The stable have clearly set him for this event.

7. Sonic Swish: He’s had the ‘flashing light’ on him at his past two starts, which have both been first up. First of all it was a fast finishing 2nd to Dorf Star in a 1000m Maiden at Kembla before spelling and coming back with a fast finishing 2nd to Euro Angel at the Australia Day meeting at Randwick. He’s sure to be better for the run and attempts a traditional second up run for this first time in his three start career.

8. Make A Ripple: Chris Waller debuts Make A Ripple who’s had the experience of three trials within the one preparation. She hasn’t been asked for much at any of her trials and appears to be progressing nicely. This race looks a little deep for her but one to keep an eye out for over the next month.

9. Mandalong Jenny: A strapping filly from the Gary Nickson stable really attacked the line at her latest start when going down by the narrowest of margins to Northern Conqueror. This will be her third run in this time and appears to be improving at each run and the 1200m should be no issue. One at odds to keep an eye on.

10. Maraam: She’s had both career starts in town and has started well within the market on both occasions. At her first start she was a fast finishing second in the ‘false start race’ that was taken out by Kimberley Star. She was then put away and came back with a disappointing 4.3 length 4th to Ravi. She’s only had one trial this time in which was impressive, however it was only over the 747m at Randwick. Interesting to note that her first two career runs were first up over 1300m and she finds herself at 1200m for the first time today.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Harness $2.50+ for 5 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Intrusion – $8+ for 2 units

 

The Form Hub

Race 2 Warwick Farm, Wednesday 2nd March 2016