Warwick Farm Thursday January 7: The Betfair Insider Trial Analysis

Posted: January 7, 2016

Betfair Insider

Trial Analysis

Warwick Farm Thursday January 7

 

Track: Heavy 10

Rail: True

 

Race 2: 1100m SW 3YO Maiden

 

Summary

We have two tricky races to start the day at Warwick Farm but I have decided to hone in on race 2 as we have a bit more ‘evidence’ to work from.

The Track

This is the first time these youngsters have set foot on a track like this and we need to be wary of that. Traditionally rail true is an ‘off the fence’ day at Warwick Farm however handling the going and race fitness is far more important that the barrier draw today.

Major Players

Yuma DesertThe pre-post favourite Yuma Desert was very good in her narrow defeat last start on a heavy track. That performance along with her race fitness (4th up) almost guarantees her to be in the finish here. The one to beat.

Cruise PowerThe Waller trained Cruise Power has had one trial this time in and it was a decent effort on the speed, which is rare for Waller gallopers. Obviously blessed with natural speed and a small tip from the stable puts it in the mix.

Cry For PeaceLike the race favourite Yuma Desert, Cry For Peace is race fit presenting her 4th up. Her last start performance was good enough to put her in the mix here and the Street Cry’s generally grow a leg in the wet. Good value.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Yuma Desert at $2.90 + for 3.5 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Cry For Peace at $6+ for 1.5 units

 

A small field of seven runners here with little value in the market. Cry For Peace looks over the odds.

 

Race 1: 1100m HCP 2YO Maiden

For those looking for a tip in race 1, the value player in the field could be the James Cummings trained Mega Mall who has been finishing off well in her trials. If you can secure $31 I would recommend a 0.5 unit bet.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Mega Mall at $31+ for 0.5 units