Warrnambool, Day 3 Thursday 5th May 2016: The Betfair Insider – Warrnambool Cup

Posted: May 4, 2016 at 5:04 pm

Current Track Rating: Heavy 10

Rail: 4m 1300m – 300m, True Remainder

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Wednesday – Max 18°C. Cloudy. Chance of shower

Thursday – Max 20°C. Partly cloudy

 

R8 Warrnambool Cup HCP 2350m

Speed Map

Warrnambool Cup

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • 4 of past 5 winners have raced in metro 2000m+ race in their lead up
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 57kg or more
  • 5 of past 5 winners have been 5th up or deeper into their preparation

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail +4m, Heavy 9

1st Tall Ship – BR 11 57kg SP $3.30 fav – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st Terang Cup 2150m Terang

2nd Arch Fire – BR 9 54kg SP $11 – 5th up, 2 weeks 4th Hurdle Quality 35k 3200m Ballarat

3rd Lucciola – BR 7 54kg SP $7.50 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 3rd Pakenham Cup 2000m Pakenham

Rail +4m, Heavy 10

1st Akzar – BR 16 57kg $3.00 fav – 9th up, 2 weeks 2nd Easter Cup 150k 2000m Caulfield

2nd Westsouthwest – BR 6 54kg $14 – 5th up, 3 weeks 1st HCP 80k 2400m Caulfield 

3rd Shoreham – BR 12 57.5kg $21 – 4th up, 2 weeks 5th Easter Cup 150k 2000m Caulfield

Rail +4m, Soft 7 

1st Banca Mo – BR 1 58kg $3.70 fav – 5th up, 2 weeks 1st HCP 80k 2000m Flemington

2nd Muirfield – BR 3 54.5kg $26 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 11th HCP 80k 2000m Flemington

3rd  Shiny Buttons – BR 6 54kg $9.50 – 6th up, 1 week 3rd 0-89 80k 2000m Flemington

Dance With Her – BR 9 57.5kg SP $21 – 5th up, 2 weeks 13th JRA Plate 2000m Randwick

Tinamou – BR 1 54kg SP $5 – 6th up, 2 weeks 2nd 0-89 70k 2000m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Café Society: Comes here against the profile dropping back in distance after a below par performance in the G1 Sydney Cup where he failed to run out the trip. His best form is at this distance and the Oliver/Waterhouse combination in Victoria has a healthy enough strike rate. Needs to find cover in running early but can win if track stays in the soft range.

2. Swacadelic: Locally trained runner coming off a solid win at Flemington over 2530 in an Open Handicap defeating Big Memory & Don Doremo, he meets both runners worse off at the weights and will be well back and wide from his draw. Needs a 10/10 ride from Zahra to win.

3. Survived: This horse has found some of his old form and looks rejuvenated in the hands Archie Alexander. He started equal favourite with Hawkspur in the 2013 derby but failed badly. He mixed his form in Group company following that winter carnival and his last win come over 1600m in a Group 3 in November 2013 in New Zealand.

Importantly he’s recorded very strong sectionals to indicate he’s capable of running a bold race here off a charmed draw. He fits the profile perfectly and Archie Alexander looks to have him ready to peak here fourth up. $34 in early betting is a big mistake.

4. Falago: His last five starts have been terrific and his last start seventh in the Terang Cup was a total forgive as he never saw daylight in the home straight. I have him on top of the Darren Weir trained runners as he maps perfectly from barrier four and handles any type of going.

7. Black Tomahawk: Like his recent performance finishing close up behind Doctor Care and Real Love at Caulfield over 2000m. He worked hard early to take up a prominent position and battled on well to the line indicating he’ll be further improved for that run.

Five starts back he defeated Excess Knowledge in the Harry White Classic on the minimum and followed up with an OK fifth behind Amralah in the Herbert Power beaten 5.1 lengths. With an inside draw and 55.kg he looks capable of figuring strongly in the finish here.

8. Master Zephyr: Had every favour in running and won the Terang Cup in dominant fashion. Weir used that race as his lead to win the cup with Tall Ship last year. His ratings over 2500m at Moonee Valley last time in suggest that he’s the horse to beat on a Good rated track.

The stable has some concern he’s a risk on rain affected ground but his breeding suggests that he’ll be OK if the track can improve to a Slow. I expect him to drift from $3.30 in early betting and couldn’t entertain backing him at anything less than $6.00.

11. Adirondack: Dropped a big rating last start over 2000m in the 250k Vobis Gold heath a fortnight ago. He’s some query out to 2350m and I’m not convinced he can lead all the way and win. Looks short in early betting and he’d be a great Back-To-Lay option for punters keen to Lay off in running.

14. Master Of Arts: Drawn to get every favour in running and has improved at every start this time in. He’s bred to handle heavy tracks and his best racing will at this distance or further. Drops 6kg off his last start win in Adelaide and will be in the finish.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Master Zephyr – To lose 10 units up to $5

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider