Warrnambool, Day 2 Wednesday 4th May 2016: The Betfair Insider – Galleywood Hurdle & Wangoom Hcp

Posted: May 3, 2016

Current Track Rating: Soft 6

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Tuesday: Max 17, 80% chance of showers. 4-10mm.

Wednesday: Max 18, 50% chance of a shower 0-1mm.

 

R6 Galleywood Hurdle HCP 3200m

Speed Map

galleywood

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • 3 of past 5 winners carried 68kg or more
  • 3 of past 5 winners placed at 3000m+ hurdle in lead up
  • 4 of past 5 winners 4th up or deeper into preparation

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Stand To Gain – BR 6 65kg SP $21 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 3rd Hurdle Quality 35k 3200m Ballarat

Gotta Take Care – BR 7 69kg SP $2.40 fav – 4th up, 5 days 1st 4yo+ HCP 80k 2000m Flemington

Brungle Cry – BR 2 68kg SP $2 fav – 5th up – 2 weeks, 2nd Hurdle Quality 35k 3300m Sandown Lakeside

Black And Bent – BR 1 68kg SP $1.40 fav –  5th up, 2 weeks 4th HCP 30k 2406m Caulfield

Zendi – BR 3 64kg SP $5.50 – 10th up, 2 weeks 1st 0-120 Hurdle 15k 3200m Hamilton

Major Players 

1. Wells: Fits the profile as the winner with strong stats at the track, on rain affected ground and importantly strong form over flat racing meaning he’s been sharpened up for the 3200m here. Looks over the odds in early betting at $16 if the track remains in the heavy range.

3. Arch Fire: Profiles extremely well for this event deep into his preparation with a recent placing behind Gingerboy in the Quality Hurdle over 3300m at Sandown. He meets Gingerboy 2.5kg better on that run and they look the standout runners of the field. The biggest advantage he has over the short priced favourite is his ability to handle heavy tracks. An imposing seven starts 4 wins and 2 seconds. Will be heavily backed from $9 in early markets.

5. About The Journey: Big rise in class here but his last three starts over the hurdles have been ultra-consistent. Proven on rain affected ground and if there’s any more improvement left in him he can fill a placing behind the two heavily fancied runners.

6. Angelology: Another runner in great form but rising sharply in grade and prefer him as a place chance only.

7. Gingerboy: Won the Mildura Cup first up over 1400m which few jumpers could do. Dominant winner last start at Sandown in the Quality Hurdle over 3300m. Meets Arch Fire 2.5 kg worse off for beating him that day. I’m not worried about the weight swing but if the track remains heavy I expect him to SP closer to $2.50. All nine career wins on Good rated tracks!

9. Tuscan Fire: Coming back to hurdles after two strong runs on the flat. Two starts ago he was brave in the Terang cup boxing on well after leading to be beaten only 5.6 lengths behind Master Zephyr. He followed that up with an even better run at Flemington behind Swacadelic in a 2530m Open handicap beaten just under four lengths. Prefers Soft to Good.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Arch Fire – 6 units at $4 or more.

R8 Wangoom Hcp 1200m 

Speed Map

wangoom

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried 56kg or less
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 1st or 2nd up
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites
  • 1 of past 5 winners has been a Mare

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Rail True, Soft 7

1st Royal Island – BR 1 54kg SP $21 – 1st up, 38 weeks 10th Hcp 80k 1600m Caulfield

2nd Magnus Lad – BR 9 54kg SP $7.50 – 1st up, 6 weeks 3rd Hareeba Stakes 1200m Mornington

3rd Taddei Tondo – BR 5 54kg SP $13 – 7th up, 2 weeks 4th BM78 40k 1100 Caulfield

Rail True, Heavy 10

1st Kneeling – BR 1 54kg SP $9 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd F & M 80k 1100m Caulfield

2nd Blackie – BR 6 60kg SP $16 – 1st up, 25 weeks 11th Emirates Stakes G1 1600m Flemington

3rd Magnus Reign – BR 10 54kg $21 – 1st up, 7 weeks 5th 0-84 50k 1100m Bendigo

True, Soft 7

1st Second Effort – BR 7 58.5kg SP $11 – 3rd up, 4 weeks 14th Star Kingdom G3 1200m Rosehill

2nd That’s The One – BR 9 54kg SP $4.20 fav – 2nd up, 3 weeks 2nd HCP 80k 1000m Flemington

3rd Dash For Viz – BR 6 54kg SP $12 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 6th HCP 80k 1000m Flemington

Second Effort – BR 13 56kg SP $3.50 fav – 2nd up, 4 weeks 1st HCP 70k 1000m Caulfield

Uxorious – BR 10 53kg SP $5.5 fav – 1st up, 26 weeks 4th HCP 100k 1200m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Heart Testa: Races extremely well fresh but all of his eight career wins have come on Good rated surfaces which he won’t get in this event. Concede his Group 3 Bill Ritchie 1400m placing on a Heavy 8 reads well for this but I think unless the track improves to the soft range he’s a place chance only.

2. Hellova Street: Will be up and on the speed which gives him a great winning chance as he’s proven in strong company out to 1600m. His best ratings come on Good rated tracks and his peak rating until last start was second up over 1200m (last preparation). Last start he finished only 2.4 lengths behind Sheidel at Caulfield (his PB rating) so it’s possible he’s gone to a new level and will improve from a fitness perspective. Mark Zahra is a key booking and his looks perfectly drawn in barrier nine.

3. Rain Affair: Wet track specialist that falls perfectly within the profile sweet spot. He’s dropped some big ratings on Soft and Heavy rated tracks in Group Company. Daniel Bowman is a trainer on the rise and past winners have won this race from inside draws. He hasn’t won since march in 2013 so it would be a remarkable feat to do so here.

4. Tycoon Tara: Comes through a strong form race beaten 3.45 lengths to Miss Promiscuity at her most recent outing. She’s drawn to get a softer run in transit this time in. Her only failure on a Heavy rated surface was on debut beaten 24.35 lengths so ignore that statistic as all other rain affected performance suggests she likes it.

5. Girl Guide: Looked set up to win last start at big odds and got within a head of Sheidel to run second in the Bel Esprit Stakes at Caulfield over 1100m. The race rated very strongly and she only has re-produce that run to be in the finish again here. She can run a devastating final 400m sectional so she can win if Dean Yendall can find the back of Magnus Lad she’s the one to beat and most likely to start favourite.

7. Mirage: Enigmatic galloper that always finds trouble in his races, but when everything goes right he’s sharp. Was a forgive run last start in the Bel Esprit Stakes when checked early. This race looks like an afterthought but Damien Lane should suit him. His three starts prior were in stronger company than this and he’s a runner that needs a bonus on Heavy rated surfaces.

8. Yesterday’s Songs: Recent form is strong enough to give him a winning chance here but this race looks like an afterthought. Capable on rain affected ground but he’s impossible to catch and hard to have in single figure odds based on early markets.

11. Magnus Lad: First up specialist that was gallant in defeat in this race year when up and on the speed without cover. Huge performance to finish second in that event and comes here fresh this time signalling intent. He’ll need to do it the hard way and I expect whatever can find his back may prove to be the winner of the race.

12. Royal Island: Won this race last year first up at an SP of $21. Fits profile of winner again and is drawn to have options. This year’s renewal looks a tougher event so will need to have found a few lengths to win.

14. Noela’s Choice: Dominant wet track performer that looks primed here off a seven week break. She’s drawn well in barrier seven which will give Harry Coffey a few options, he is riding confidently and is high in the pecking order of Darren Weir’s preferred riders. She will need a split at the right time but a repeat rating of her Standish performance would see her in the finish.

16. Stellar Collision: Given little hope in the Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint at his latest start beaten 5.3 lengths behind Japonisme. That form line produced the Hawkesbury Guineas Winner Spill The Beans and I’m confident that Stellar Collision was a better run in the Arrowfield. I’m always wary of horses that are placed dramatically outside the profile and this runner has serious upside. Won his debut on a Soft 5 and expect Darren Weir to scratch him if he thinks he won’t handle a Heavy. If he got $8 I’d consider backing him.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Girl Guide – 2.5 units at $5 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Hellova Street – 1.5 unit at $11 or more

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider