Warrnambool, Day 1 Tuesday 3rd May 2016: The Betfair Insider – Brierly Steeplechase & City of Warrnambool HCPs

Posted: May 2, 2016

Current Track Rating: Heavy 8

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Monday: Max 18, 20% chance of a shower.

Tuesday: Max 17, 80% chance of shower. 4-10mm.

 

R6 Brierly Steeplechase HCP 3450m

Speed Map

R6 Brierly Steeplechase HCP 3450m

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners won the Von Doussa in their lead up 2011, 2014 & 2015.
  • 5 of past 5 winners have finished 1st or 2nd at their last jumps race.
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been the SP Favourite
  • 3 of past 5 winner have carried 66.5kg or less

NB: Von Doussa 2016 took place March 26th. (Extra 3 week break between this year’s Brierly)

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Thubiaan – BR 4 68kg SP $2.45 fav – 7th up, 2 weeks 6th BM70 30k 2500m Pakenham

Palmero – BR 1 69kg SP $1.80 fav – 8th up, 2 weeks 1st Von Doussa 3250m Oakbank

Cats Fun – BR 4 64kg SP $7.00 – 4th up, 2 weeks 1st 0-120 Hurdle 3200m Hamilton

Fareer – BR 12 65kg SP $7.50 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd Steeple Quality 3300m Sandown Hillside

Vindicating – BR 4 66.5kg SP $4.80 – 7th up, 2 weeks 1st Von Doussa 3250m Oakbank

Major Players 

1. Thubiann: Won this event last year carrying 68kg ($2.45 fav) off the back of flat run at Pakenham (2500m BM70) following his 2015 Von Doussa win. At his most recent start he won the Great Eastern at Oakbank by 15.4 lengths over Nishiazabu who had every chance in running but couldn’t sprint when required. That was over a month ago and Eric Musgrove has kept this galloper fresh for this. His second to Nishiazabu in this year’s Von Doussa two starts ago indicate that he’s still sharp enough to win at this trip. Races best on Good to Soft rated tracks so that will have as much impact on his winning chances as his 70kg impost.

2. Lord Of The Song: Lucky to stay on his feet in the Great Eastern after Spying On You fell in front of him with a lap to go. Recovered to drag himself back into contention but couldn’t sprint with Thubiaan. The start prior was honest in the Von Doussa placing third behind Nishiazabu without looking like the winner. He’s the best weighted runner looking at those form lines and he races best on heavy rated surfaces. Expecting him to improve dramatically but I’m more inclined to back him beyond 4000m.

3. Nishiazabu: Headed in this year’s Von Doussa but toughed it out to win. That’s the best form race according to the profile and following that run he was gallant in the Great Eastern to finish second behind Thubiaan. It’s important to note that stewards found him to be lame after the event. Since then he’s been well beaten on both occasions. The most concerning last start in a weak Steeplechase at Gawler last week when he raced like a tired horse. It would be a remarkable form reversal and an even bigger training performance.

4. Regina Coelli: Looks better suited to the Grand Annual and could be a big improver without winning. Watch.

5. Valediction: Well backed but failed to finish this race last year when sent out second favourite at $5.00 with 64kg whilst Thubiaan carried 66.5kg to SP $2.45 and win. Has had a similar preparation to last year and in similar form. He’s was the runner up a fortnight ago in the 3300m Sandown Quality Steeple narrowly beaten by Earthbound, that looks a perfectly space between runs based on past winners of this event and gets a 3.5kg weight swing on that winner. This looks his best chances to win one of the famous steeples on the calendar but is well found $3.80 in early markets given he’s only ever won a maiden hurdle at this venue.

6. King Triton: Placed third in this race last year with an SP of $10. His last start third to Earthbound (Valediction 2nd) was better than it looked and he kept grinding away to the line. He drops to the minimum for this and his best form is at this distance. He looks set to peak here from a fitness perspective and handles all types of going. $21 looks well over the odds and I’m keen to be with him on an each-way basis given how well he stacks up against almost every runner when comparing weights over the past 12 months.

7. Earthbound: One start for one win over the steeples coming through the 3000m Sandown Quality last start. Stays on the minimum so meets King Triton and Earthbound both 3.5kg worse off but given it was his first start over the steeplechase course we can expect further improvement. Fits the profile of the winner and rates a strong winning chance but I expect $7 to be bet about him on Tuesday.

9. Danzadoozie: Broke his maiden status two starts ago after failing to complete the courses at his first few hurdle attempts. Dominant 12 length winner at Hamilton last start in the BM125 steeple race over 3200m (Soft 5). He follows the same lead up as 2013 winner Cats Fun. Now his jumping has improved he’s brings a real X-factor to the race. Is he too new or will he be the next superstar of the sport? It might have come too quick for him and he’s most likely to drift from $4.60.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) King Triton – 1 unit to win & 2 units to place

R7 City of Warrnambool HCP 1700m 

Speed Map

R7 City of Warrnambool HCP

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners SP Favourites
  • 5 of past 5 winners drawn barrier 7 or closer
  • 5 of past 5 winners 2 weeks or less between runs
  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 56.5kg or less

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Turnitaround – BR 4 55kg SP $4.50 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 9th Vobis Gold Mile 250k 1600m Caulfield

Shiny Buttons – BR 7 57kg SP $4.50 fav – 5th up, 1 week 2nd HCP 30k 2000m Donald

Me Hungi – BR 1 54kg SP $2.75 fav – 3rd up, 10 days 2nd Elmore Cup 20k 1600m Bendigo

Magnifique Soleil – BR 3 56.5kg SP $3.50 fav – 6th up, 2 weeks 1st 0-89 70k 1400m Flemington

Sagwala – BR 2 55.5kg SP $9.00 – 15th up, 1 week 3rd Penola Cup 18k 1700m Penola

Major Players 

2. Araldo Junior: Will be forward enough to win, has the right barrier and jockey. Although it’s hard to be with him as he comes here six weeks between runs carrying top weight and a query on rain affected ground.

4. Turnitaround: Was specked at odds last start and was strong through the line defeating class mare Atlantis Dream at Flemington over 1700m on Anzac Day. No surprise to see him come up favourite with Dean Yendall engaged and inside barriers OK on day one of the carnival. A big negative is 58.5kg against the profile and he’s yet to win on a heavy rated surface.

5. Extra Noble: Will be spotting Turnitaround a start again, as he did on Anzac Day when placed 4th beaten 2.3 lengths. He meets the favourite no different at the weights but he looks ready to peak third up here. Bred to handle the heavy surface and should track recalculate into the race.

6. Try Four: Loves rain affected ground (5 starts 4 wins and 1 second) but failed badly as favourite last start at Morphettville in a BM90 over 1550m. Has trialled well since then over 2400m at Warrnambool so no doubt about his fitness coming into the race. Loves heavy rated surfaces and no doubt Harry Coffey will stalk the favourite from barrier two.  

10. Recalculate: Simply flying this time in, winning two from four starts and with more luck it could be more. Has a similar profile to Turnitaround last year when it used the 250k Vobis Gold Mile as his lead up run. Importantly drops 4kg from his last start 4th beaten only 2.5 lengths behind Red Bomber (Hard Call franked that form winning at Caulfield on Saturday). That’s strong form for this and if he can repeat that effort he’s the one to beat on a heavy rated surface.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Try Four – 1.5 units at $6.5+

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Recalculate – 3.5 units at $4+

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider