Victorian Harness, Mildura 29th June 2016 – R3 & 7

R3 The Big Blue Building 2YO Pace 

Speed Map

Three first starters engaged which always makes it a slightly tricky map to predict. I’ve seen all these trial and on exposed form the gate speed looks to come from Redcourtella (3) who has an aggressive driver, who always likes to lead which reinforces my opinion. Expect Franks Very Much (7) to be put into race as soon as it can. Nykea Courage (5) and Jacknwal (6) have both been driven with ‘one run’ in races and trials to date.

Major Players

3. Redcourtella: Has gate speed to lead but only limited type and expect to be run down with likely pressure on in the last lap.

5. Nykea Courage: Made good ground in excellent closing sectionals at Globe Derby last time when first up from a let up, looks to be improved and is a major chance here.

6. Jacknwal: Has trialled well on this track so respect it as a chance, hasn’t been used off the gate in trials.

7. Franks Very Much: Beat older horses in an excellent trial this track prior to being poorly driven in a heat of the Vicbred at Bendigo. Can do work in its races and expect it to be driven aggressive again tonight. If the driver can make the right decisions with six only runners and the class on its side, he should be winning.

Betting Strategy

Although I have some reservations on the driver, it might be enough doubt for Betfair layers to let us on.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Franks Very Much (7) at $1.90+.

 

R7 Sportz Trendz Agengies Pace 

Speed Map

Bit of speed off the front but expect Youvegotobelieveit (4) to be too quick and cross those on the inside. Bernies Idol (1) is back in the draw, but I don’t think it will be risked ‘off the arm’ and will attempt to hold its line at the start. Taj Bromac (3) has good gate speed, but tends to muster speed and isn’t as quick over the first 100m so hence confidence in the four crossing. Expect Gollahgirl (9) to be put into the race as soon as it can with a usual aggressive Brian Sylvia drive.

Major Players

1. Bernies Idol: Back in the draw, has OK gate speed and will get a nice run, trialled fair at Echuca on the weekend, can fill a place.

3. Taj Bromac: Has a good overall record, resuming off a spell but has had several trials, improving off each of those and I expect it to run a bold race tonight.

4. Youvegotobelievit: Has been ultra-impressive since joining the local stable of Jason McGinty. Has excellent gate speed and likes to roll along in its races. Can run very quick time and despite being up in class slightly it shouldn’t be an issue.

9. Gollahgirl: Has been one of the most improved horses racing this season and comes back in class here after racing in the Vicbred heats. It now has a driving change, most importantly in its five wins to date, each of those wins has come when it’s been the leader. It can’t lead tonight and with the driver change I’m happy to risk.

10. Lauper: Great record this track and distance so is a winning chance if gets a cart into the race.

11. Ark: Draw against it but has a powerful sprint if things fall into its favour.

Betting Strategy

I not concerned about the rise in class and as such, very keen to bet.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Youvegotobelievit (4) at $2.70+

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Gollahgirl (9) at $5.50 or less

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