Victorian Harness, Kilmore 16th June 2016 – R4, 5 & 6

Posted: June 16, 2016

Overview – Great night of racing at my favourite track tonight and fairly confident I can nail a few races and get some nice profit!

 

R4 Charles Bell Memorial Pace

Speed Map

Gallery Girl should be first to find the markers here and will probably hand up to whoever has a look first between Twoforsixty and Watch The Dream, either way I can see Watch The Dream leading as Twoforsixty would hand up in turn to it.

Royal Canvas will push through and should settle handy enough, there’s a slight chance it could sneak underneath the aforementioned early to find the top.

Major Players

4. Twoforsixty: Rough chance but needs a soft run to be able to finish off.

7. Watch The Dream: If he leads he’ll be very hard to catch.

9. Royal Canvas: Mile suits it a bit more with his tendency to over race, I’m prepared to risk in the hope it doesn’t fire through and lead.

11. Arden Castle: Carried a flat tyre last start but the three runs prior were good enough to win a race of this nature.

 

Betting Strategy

Arden Castle although drawn 11, will get a nice run and should settle close enough to be able to pounce in the straight, I think it has a class edge here.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Arden Castle at $2.20+

 

R5 Reg Shinn Memorial Pace

Speed Map

Hellovaway can really fly the gate and I expect it to lead here. The main battle being who can get the ‘gun trip’ on its back, with Brother Rabbit and Shifty Shivas to contest that. Pepe Bromac will work forward mid race to occupy the death seat.

Major Players

2. No Bettertime: Can run a really good quarter when saved for one run, if it’s close enough on the final bend it’s a blowout chance.

3. Shifty Shivas: Can use early speed to ensure he gets a good trip, but not going well enough for mine.

4. Hellovaway: One of the chances as I can see it leading without too much pressure initially.

10. Pepe Bromac: The one to beat, ran a huge race last time against a couple of topliners and will make his own luck.

11. Arts Stride: Will most likely come with one sprint and is a place chance at best.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Pepe Bromac at $1.55+

 

R6 Empire Stallions Vicbred Super Series 3yo C & G

Speed Map

Showgun Thomas should be able to boot through from the ace draw here and hold the lead, Professor Tom will find his back and get a soft trip. Madeeba, Travelnpastyou, Perspective and Mastersign may all work forward into the running line. Soho Tribeca will most likely move around and look for the top once the pace settles which shouldn’t take long.

Major Players

1. Showgun Thomas: Touch below his best last time but should lead and if he does he has to be a good each way hope.

8. Professor Tom: Going to get a soft run on the pegs and is racing well so is a chance with a touch of luck.

9. Soho Tribeca: Put in a below par run by his standards last time but on best form is the one to beat here.

10. Battle Born: Good win last time when pulled in front, will probably sit back and come with one sprint and if can settle in the run and with pace is a good chance.

 

Betting Strategy

I can see four main chances here and with the advantage of the draw I think Showgun Thomas is the betting proposition.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Showgun Thomas at $7.50 (20% stake)

Back on Betfair BACK (PLACE) Showgun Thomas at $2+ (80% stake)

 

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