Victorian Harness; Geelong 1st June 2016 – R1, 5 & 6 Analysis from The Mailman

Posted: June 1, 2016

Track: Geelong is a track that I like to bet on, I find it a fair track and providing tempo is on then they can win from anywhere. I have targeted 3 races to bet into tonight.

 

R1 Geelong Harness Functions Trot – 6.25pm

Speed Map

Gate speed here with All The Way Mae (2) Illawong Peppa (3) and Landoras Girl (7). I expect Lance Justice to keep pushing forward on Landoras Girl and a usually aggressive Lance to find the front of the previous horses mentioned. Sashas Dream (11) was put into the race early when the pace slackened last time, expect him to do the same if that occurs again.

Major Players

2. All The Way Mae: Has the gate speed to be forward, I anticipate that it will relent to the pressure and take a sit, if that occurs will get a nice run in the race.

3. Illawong Peppa: Good gate speed so it will be in the early battle as well so expect to be up on speed and getting a cheap run but is rising in class for mine tonight

7. Landoras Girl: Two runs from NZ have both been good, first up copped plenty of pressure early then 2nd up was touched off late by the sprint lane horse. Will be fitter for the runs and with my map of her leading think that it gets it best chance tonight.

8. Desert Flyer: Tricky draw and will need luck at some stage

9. Glenferrie Belle: Gets good run through at the start so expect to be up with the leaders but would need lots of favours to win

10. Waiting Room: Trailed only fair at Cranbourne on the weekend so willing to risk here

11. Sashas Dream: Can be very risky trotter, she put it altogether last week and couldn’t get the job done so will need to work again here and with the front horses all having good ability has the job ahead.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Landoras Girl at $2.40 or more

 

R5 Flying Brick Cider Pace – 8.30pm

Speed Map

The map for this race is critical, there is plenty of speed off the front but some may not choose to use it in fear of not being able to cross those drawn on the inside. Stay And Play (2) has become quicker off the gate as it has gained more experience with racing, but Crockets Cullen (3) flies the gate and once again with an aggressive Lance Justice on board he will be having a crack at finding the top. Montu (1) plays a key role at the start, does it hold Stay And Play out in order to gain the trail behind the leader? Expect Shifty Shivas (5) not to come off the gate tonight as is its usual pattern when drawn wider.

Major Players

1. Montu: The key to its chances are holding out Stay And Play at the start in order to get the perfect trail, if it does then is a good winning hope.

2. Stay And Play: No doubt this horse has very good ability and its figure form is excellent. I personally can’t have it near 6/4 ($2.50) or odds on, with queries on the map. If it can obtain a run behind the leader or holds the lead then things change.

3. Crockets Cullen: I expect it to lead and as such is a leading hope in the race. Amazing that it has not won over the shorter distance as all indicators are that the sprint journey should suit.

4. Jimmy The Editor: Will be big odds, but sensational at track statistics. Only unplaced once out of 10 attempts.

6. Goodtime Alltime: Has good gate speed but likely to go back tonight, it can win if they go too hard though as is a very nice type

7. Oasis Dream: Hasn’t had much luck of late and again, if tempo can suit those from the back then it is an excellent chance

9. Lagoon Beach: Stepped up in class last time after impressive win this track, likely to take cheap run and be 3 or 4 fence so will need luck.

Betting Strategy

A stack of depth in this race and with the query on the race map for the early market fav my suggested bet to

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Stay And Play at $2.80 or less

 

R6 Trotters Hcp – 9.00pm

Speed Map

Standing start speed maps can be a challenge at times but banking on the peerless Chris Alford who is the master at getting horses away from the tapes. Chris drives Ruby Pinevale (4) who is clearly the best horse off the front so providing a safe getaway he can work his way to the front. Backmarkers Sunofatrump (8) and Tella Tall Tale (9) can work into the race at some point depending on tempo.

Major Players

4. Ruby Pinevale: Most advantaged as my map has it leading and as such is clearly one to beat. The step up in distance is some query but I don’t expect a lot of pressure in the race so that will assist.

8. Sonofatrump: Can be a risky trotter so has to be nursed in its races, gets Gavin Lang who drives it’s so well so on ability it is a leading chance.

9. Tella Tall Tale: From inform trotting stable and this guy has really peaked as well of late, has been beginning well so a repeat of that will see him close up to the action and a good chance

11. Desert Spur: is a very nice sit sprinter, so if it gets the run it needs then it is always a chance as will be hitting the line very hard.

 

Betting Strategy

Suggest that if Ruby Pinevale leads as we have mapped, then lay back a portion of stake in the run at much shorter odds during the early stages of the race.

Back on BetfairLaying on BetfairBACK-TO-LAY (WIN) Ruby Pinevale at $2.20 or more

 

Good luck to all of us.

 

The Mailman