Victorian Harness; Cranbourne 2nd June 2016 – R1, 5 & 7 Analysis from Mr. Moo

Posted: June 2, 2016

Overview: Competitive meeting tonight at Cranbourne so I’ve focused on a few races where I’m confident I have an edge.

R1 Blue Hills Rise Pace

Speed Map

While Real Knucky (1), Zuko Dream (4) and Tenfour (6) all have OK early speed, Bettor Biaggi (5) can really fly the gate and I expect it to be able to get to the front here without many issues. Real Knucky should be leaders back providing Better Biaggi holds the lead. Danman (3) may look to make a move once the dust settles.

Major Players

1. Real Knucky: Better suited over the mile, but drawn to get a gun trip.

3. Danman: Drops in class here getting the claim for Alex Ashwood and should be hard to beat with any luck, looks to be getting back to best with a lack of early speed the negative.

4. Zuko Dream: Racing well of late hitting the line nicely, with a bit of luck in running can be in the finish.

5. Bettor Biaggi: First up tonight after a fair trial but looks the leader. Would prefer to see over a shorter trip to entertain as a winning chance.

6: Tenfour: Has raced in stronger company of late.  Chances here rely on getting across to the pegs.

8. Blue Chipped: Will enjoy a soft trip and will run on late but is likely to be too far back to be a genuine winning chance.

11. Kira Jo: Racing a touch below her best but don’t write her off if gets the right cart into race.

12. Cullen Regent: Awkwardly drawn, although is down in class so have to consider as a definite place chance and if they go too quick early would become a winning hope.

 

Betting Strategy

A combination of dropping in class and still drawing ok gives me confidence that Alex Ashwood can get Danman with the two next best chances drawn the carpark (Kira Jo & Cullen Regent).

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Danman at $2.40+

 

R5 Mypunter.com Pace

Speed Map

Very important where they land in the run here as Garibaldi (4) and Mister Wickham (5) will both be looking for the top.  Mister Wickham has more gate speed but with the inside advantage of the barrier draw Garibaldi might be able do enough to hold him out. If Mister Wickham was to roll to the top without much pressure he’d be very hard to gun down. Arts Stride (2) will most likely be first to the pegs but will relent to the pressure. I expect Stagger Lee (6) and Lucky Lombo (7) to restrain from their wide draws.

Major Players

2. Arts Stride: First big test for this runner and has looked nice in weaker company. Looks set to get a gun trip so don’t count him out.

4. Garibaldi: Was as good a run as Mister Wickham at Yarra Valley last time and will be looking to switch positions in running here. Must lead to be a chance and can be hit or miss.

5. Mister Wickham: Likely to start fav and will be fitter for one run back so expect him to go a touch better here but may not get things his own way.

6. Stagger Lee: Gone from strength to strength since arriving from NZ and definitely a winning chance with the right trip here.

7: Lucky Lombo: First up here off an impressive Bendigo trial where he hit the line hard. Big chance and I want to be on if Stagger Lee gives him a 3 wide cart up.

Betting Strategy

We will probably have a fair idea of our fate once they get to the first turn here but going to back in Garibaldi to kick up early and keep Mister Wickham out. Look for Stagger Lee and Lucky Lombo to be running home over the top if this happens.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Mister Wickham at $2.50 or less

 

R7 Hyland Harness Colours Pace

Speed Map

Doesn’t look a heap of early speed here inside The Jet Player (5) so he should push forward to the lead. I can see him setting a solid tempo in his pet event (mile race) to make it hard for anything off the peg line to make ground. If Rocknroll Gold (6) or Vae Victus (7) were able to zip across and create a gap in behind The Jet Player it would really put them in the box seat. They both have OK speed but if they get caught parked outside the leader they’ll be in for a tough trip.

Major Players

4. Blacknbrown: Narrowly went down first up so will be looking to go one better. Needs everything to go right to win.

5. The Jet Player: Is no more talented than Rocknroll Gold or Vae Victus but will play ‘catch me if you can’ here and they will need to run time to beat him.

6. Rocknroll Gold: Trialled nicely behind Mister Wickham and on best form would give this a shake. A definite chance with some cover from The Jet Player or Vae Victus.

7. Vae Victus: Was a little below par last time when forced to work and from the draw. I’m willing to risk it here with a similar ‘tough’ run likely.

Betting Strategy

Confident The Jet Player gets things to suit but Rocknroll Gold just needs some sort of luck to be running on late over the top. Keen to back the Jet Player and then also save on Rocknroll Gold to cover the stake amount only.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) The Jet Player at $2.50+ (Full Stake)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Rocknroll Gold at $3.00+ (Half Stake)