Victorian Harness, Ballarat 15th June 2016 – R2, 4 & 8

Posted: June 15, 2016 at 5:10 pm

Overview: Off to Ballarat tonight, no sprint lane in operation but a 1000m track with a long straight where usually all horses get their chances to win.

 

R2 Breeders Crown Pace

Speed Map

Solid speed off the front, with a change of driver for Lifes Tough which could mean it kicks through. It holds the cards as it could also opt to take a sit on either Prince of Zanzibar or Let’s Jazz It Up who are both driven by aggressive drivers who will push forward. The other go forward horse is If The Mood Suits, but it’s drawn very wide. I expect Runfortheroses to sit back out of the early speed battle, and with the small field it can get a good run through.

Major Players

1. Lifes tough: Good gate speed and a positive driver change. Improver.

3. Our Miss Vivienne: Has gate speed but can’t see it crossing so has to be driven softly.

4. Prince Of Zanzibar: Chris Alford on and is likely to be aggressive early so will be right on speed making it a winning chance.

5. Lets Jazz It Up: The Kraft stable improve significantly when Neil McCallum takes the reins, expect this one to be used early and very good chance.

6. Millwood Brandy: Sit sprinter who likely to go back from the draw

7. If The Mood Suits: Has good gate speed and likely to push forward from the wide draw, is the improver and chance at odds.

9. Runfortheroses: Trialled well before first up run where used up a bit early then shuffled back and held up at vital stage. Gets Nathan Jack here and conditions to suit with early speed on.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Runfortheroses at $3.20+

 

R4 Ballarat Holden 2yo Trot

Speed Map

These races can be hard to map with so much inexperience and risky trotters. Gate speed comes from Truscott Hall, Yankee Redback and Illawong Bardot, expect them to battle for the early lead.

Major Players

2. Truscott Hall: Has improved with racing, hasn’t been used off the gate after error first start, but expect it to show speed tonight and is a winning chance.

3. Yankee Redback: Exceptional manners for a young trotter, has gate speed and expect it to be on speed and well placed in this at odds.

4. Illawong Bardot: Has plenty of speed but still very risky under pressure, galloped twice in recent Shepparton trial and the negative was that it did so in the home straight under pressure.

7. Midnightatpinevale: Liked its trial and likely to be good odds, can win.

8. Derrie Aire: Beat the stablemate Midnightatpinevake in a trial and lot to like about it. Draw a challenge first up but with any luck will be right in the finish.

11. Iona Spider: Gets driver Greg Sugars which is a bonus but is no star. Draws the back row with a lot of traffic in front of it and I think it’s a touch over-rated.

12. Carnera: Has ability but I was a bit disappointed in its last effort when it failed to finish the race off.

 

Betting Strategy

Wide open race and keen to take a set against Iona Spider.

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Iona Spider at $6.00

Race 8 Empire Stallions Vicbred Super Series 3yo Fillies

Speed Map

The speed comes from Stunning I Am, Kalinda, Without You and Whirily School, the later I expect to find the top. The query is if they press forward on Without You, it has the gate speed to lead and hand up but the last time they pressed forward it pulled hard and just didn’t finish off. So that’s the query with the map.

Major Players

3. Stunning I Am: Good gate speed and has shown ability, but this a step up in class

4. Albietta: Has fair gate speed and performed well in good company last time, place hope

5. Kalinda: New to the D Braun stable, trialled against 2 year olds at Geelong and it was a fair effort at best.

6. Without You: Can really mix its form, it can pull hard to its detriment so not sure they will push the button early and fly the gate.

7. Whirily School: Just no luck at all of late but is perfectly placed tonight and this looks her race.

 

Betting Strategy

Very keen on Whirily School!

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Whirily School at +$1.40.

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