Victorian Harness, Ararat 8th June – R2, 3 & 8

Posted: June 8, 2016

Overview: Looks a very competitive eight race card. This track can be testing for some horses as it is tight and some runners simply don’t handle it which is always something to be wary of. It does favour on pace runners but in saying that it is a track where drivers make moves as they have to get into races to negate this.

 

R2 Vicbred Pace

Speed Map

Gnotuk and Adams Express both have very good gate speed. The last two times that Gnotuk has lead over the longer distance of 2200m he has lead and taken the sit on a favourable runner. I see that favourable runner being Adams Express. Rainbow Sue will push forward but isn’t overly quick off the gate. When the pace slackens expect Australian Bite to make a run into the race.

Major Players

1. Gnotuk: On my map he takes the sit on Adams Express so will get every chance. It must be noted that he has raced 73 times with only 8 of those starts over the longer distance of tonight’s race. With that in mind I’m betting against him. He did trial on the weekend at Terang in preparation for this and his trial was OK with a quick last 800.

2. Adams Express: Good gate speed, has an aggressive driver on in Michael Bellman so expect it to find the front. He’s been racing without any luck at all in recent starts and leading on this track makes him a great winning chance.

3. Rainbow Sue: Gets back into the right class and deserves to be rated amongst the leading chances in this race.

10. Australian Bite: Suited by the class coming into the race with a claim, can work into the race when tempo allows so is a chance at odds in the race.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Adams Express at $3.40+ for 70% of your stake

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Australian Bite at $6+ for 30% of your stake

 

R3 3 YO Trot

Speed Map

Young trotters Speed Maps can alter very quickly but based on trials and races to date, expect that Sky Me A River to lead with Illawong Bliss kicking through and holding its back and obtaining sit, Into The Unknown has OK gate speed and expect it to push forward and likely to death seat. Cargerie is usually driven aggressively so it may push forward as well. Crown Dream is very risky so he is the ‘X Factor’ as to what it does at the start.

Major Players

1. Sky Me A River: Has good gate speed so expect it to lead and give a sight, has shown OK ability.

4. Into The Unknown: I’ve seen a bit of this trotter at the trials and have been impressed. It backed up its trial performance with a very nice debut run hitting the line well. It raced and trailed against Sky Me A River its main danger in early markets and had the better of it on both occasions. I think the death seat would actually suit this horse so I’m not daunted at all of the prospect of it having to sit parked and win.

6. Cargerie: Usually driven aggressive and has some ability but happy to take it on

7. Crown Dream: Very risky, galloped again in recent trial so have to risk for now.

8. Illawong Bliss: Gets the gun run as mentioned in speed map comments, so clearly on that is a real danger of sprinting home late.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Into The Unknown at $2.60+

Secondary Betting Strategy

If the map works out as planned then the well favoured Sky Me A River will be leading and Into The Unknown will be in the death, if so, LAY Sky Me A River at $1.90 or less. And if you want to increase your stake on our top selection Into the Unknown you are likely to get a better price in the run with it being parked. Be tuned in live watching the race though to play this way.

 

R8 Repco Pace

Speed Map

Only seven runners but likely to be a bit of action early. Witzend, Farmersntradies and Jaccka Lonny all can ‘run the gate’. Last start Jaccka Lonny was driven with a change of tactics to be less aggressive off barrier one and took an easy sit, look for a change of tactics tonight. If confident they are likely to push forward off the wide gate and can lead despite the draw. Duke of Albany can let the speed battle unfold early then work into the race as soon as the pace slackens.

Major Players

1. Witzend: Is racing in great form, has gate speed so depends on with Jaccka Lonny as to what happens early. Winning chance.

5. Duke Of Albany: Perfectly placed again and the tablemate drawn out wide with gate speed may assist with early speed on, expect it to be put into the race at the right time and be too strong for them. Every run this prep it has improved and only has to repeat last run where it zoomed home from the death in 55.9 (Last 800) at Ballarat. Some chance of even finding the top mid race if Jaccka Lonny leads early.

7. Jaccka Lonny: Start all important for it, has ability but mixed its form a bit of late.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Duke Of Albany at $1.60+