Trentham, Saturday 5 December 2015: The Betfair Insider

Posted: December 4, 2015

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Trentham, Saturday 5 December 2015

Track – Dead 5

Rail – True

Weather forecast – www.metservice.com

Friday 4th – Max 22, Overcast.

Saturday 5th – Max 21, Cloudy.

 

 

R8 Rydges Captain Cook Stakes G1 1600m

Speed Map

Captain Cook Stakes

 

Race Profiling

  • 3 of past 5 winners had their previous run at 1600m
  • 2 of past 5 winners were SP favourite
  • 1 of past 5 winners was a 3YO filly
  • 2 of past 5 winners used the G3 Tuaranga Stakes as their lead up run

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2014 – Shuka – SP $5.80 59kg BR8 – 4th up, 8 weeks, 2nd Livamol Classic G1 2000m Hastings

2013 – Shuka – SP $20.30 59kg BR3 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 4th Tuaranga Stakes G3 1600m Tuaranga

2012 – Final Touch – SP $9.80 57kg BR7 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 4th Thoroughbred Breeders Stks G2 1400m Pukekohe

2011 – Mufhasa – SP $1.80 59kg BR2 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 2nd Tuaranga Stakes G3 1600m Tuaranga

2010 – We Can Say It Now – $2.80 51kg BR15 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st Levin Classic G1 1600m Otaki

 

Major Players

  1. Kawi Raced without luck when defeated by Soriano in the Tuaranga Stakes last start. He overraced in the early stages and then was held in a pocket for the vast majority of the straight before working clear late and going down by a narrow margin. Jockey Leith Innes goes back aboard for the first time since winning the Group 1 Makfi Challenge 1400m in August. His record at the track (6:4-1-0) and distance (5:1-2-1) makes him the one to beat.
  2. Julinksy PrinceWinner of the G1 Windsor Park Plate 1600m two starts back before narrow third behind Soriano and Kawi in Tuaranga Stakes. He would need to show significant improvement on his last run considering the circumstances were clearly in his favour and he wasn’t able to hold out those who finished ahead of him. He raced outside the lead and was afforded an uninterrupted passage while Soriano and Kawi were hampered.
  3. ShukaAiming for a hat-trick of wins in this race but it would be a big surprise if he can create history and be the first horse to do so. He finished two lengths from Soriano last start and didn’t appear to have many excuses. Seems under the odds in early betting at $8.50, I’ve rated him closer to $21.
  4. Sakhee’s SoldierReally struggling to find form this preparation in three runs. Dropped back in grade last start and was no match for Stolen Dance in the G3 Eagle Technology Stakes at Ellerslie last Saturday. His price in early markets at $10 is no value.
  5. Soriano Graeme Rogerson has this mare absolutely flying at present. She lowered the colours of Kawi two starts ago with a brilliant turn of speed after being locked in a pocket and then last start appreciated the drop back to mares grade and proved her superiority in the G2 Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes. Her pattern of racing will see her settle towards the tail of the field and there is no doubt she will attack the line with plenty of force.

 

Betting Strategy

BACK – WIN – KAWIHappy to take $2 or higher.

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying,

The Betfair Insider

 

 

NB: Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au