Trentham, Saturday, 23 January 2016: The Betfair Insider

Betfair Insider

Trentham, Saturday, 23 January 2016

Track

Dead 5

Rail True

Weather forecastwww.metservice.com

Friday 22nd – Max 21. Partly Cloudy.

Saturday 23rd – Max 22. Partly Cloudy.

 

 

R7 Thorndon Mile Group 1 SW & Penalties 1600m

Speed Map

 

Thorndon Mile Group1

Race Profile

  • 0 of past 5 winners were SP favourite
  • 2 of past 5 winners had previous run in benchmark class
  • 2 of past 5 winners had previous run in Rich Hill Mile
  • 3 of past 5 winners carried 53kg or less

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead Up Result

2015 – Puccini – SP$6.90 57kg BR4 – 7th up, 3 weeks, 3rd Group 2 Rich Hill Mile 1600m Ellerslie

2014 – A Touch Of Ruby – SP$48.10 52kg BR12 – 9th up, 1 week, 1st BM85 1300m Te Rapa

2013 – Historian – SP$17.60 53kg BR16 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 14th Group 2 Rich Hill Mile 1600m Ellerslie

2012 – Say No More – SP$6.50 52kg BR6 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 1st BM85 1600m Awapuni

2011 – Booming – SP$17.20 57kg BR3 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 1st Group 1 Zabeel Classic 2000m Ellerslie

 

Major Players

  1. Kawi: Impressive winner of the Group 1 Zabeel Classic last start and class galloper at weight-for-age conditions missing a placing at only 4 of his 21 career starts. His consistency at the top level results in him having to carry 59kg here, meeting many rivals worse from his last start G1 win. His record at the mile is good but not as effective as 1400m as he can over race and be quite keen if there’s minimal pressure up front. With a month between runs, questionable speed in the race and the race profile being against horse up in the weights I’m happy to take him on at the early market price of <$3.00.
  1. Soriano: This mare will be suited if runners are getting away from the inside and finishing late, that was the case at Trentham last Saturday so if the pattern is similar expect her to shorten in the markets for that reason alone. She finished fourth behind Kawi last start in the Zabeel Classic and despite meeting him no better under the weight conditions I feel she is better suited coming back to 1600m. Profile and map is against her but could easily fill a placing.
  1. Stolen Dance: Narrowly defeated by Kawi in the Zabeel Classic and now meets him 1.5kg better at handicap conditions. Dropping back to 1600m also suits where her record reads 8:7-1-0 despite not quite breaking through at the top level. She is versatile but is most likely to sit three pairs back in running off the fence. Last week that was the perfect spot to be in. With that in mind I expect her to shorten from $3.80 in early markets.
  1. Mighty Solomun: He has been on the wrong side of the ledger in two recent battles with Kawi, both at 1400m but was narrowly denied on both occasions. The difference today is that under handicap conditions he meets the favourite 4kg better. His record at 1600m is questionable (4:0-1-1) but he is off a two week break unlike most other gallopers that are 3 plus weeks between runs. His chances will be further enhanced by any rain.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Stolen Dance for 4 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Mighty Solomun for 0.5 unit

 

R9 Wellington Cup 3200m

Speed Map

wellington cup

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners were SP favourite
  • 3 of past 5 winners had previous run in Gallagher Marton Cup
  • 4 of past 5 winners carried 54kg or less
  • 5 of past 5 winners were having at least seventh run for the campaign

Previous Race Winners and Lead Up Result

2015 – Maygrove – SP$4.40 52kg BR5 – 9th up, 2 wks, 2nd Listed Gallagher Cup 2200m Awapuni

2014 – Graphic – SP$9.60 52kg BR10 – 7th up, 3 weeks, 1st BM85 2200m Ellerslie

2013 – Blood Brotha – SP$16.80 54kg BR9 – 9th up, 2 weeks, 9th Listed Gallagher Cup 2200m Awapuni

2012 – Six O’Clock News – SP$13 56kg BR15 – 9th up, 1 wk, 1st G3 Mill Reef Stakes 2100m Wellington

2011 – Spiro – SP$29.80 53kg BR5 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 5th Listed Gallagher Marton Cup 2200m Awapuni

 

Major Players

 

  1. Jimmy Mac: Won the New Zealand Cup at this distance two starts ago and then powered late with 58.5kg to win the Gallagher Marton Cup last start, a race that has produced three of the past five winners of this event. Racing in career best form this preparation and although he prefers the sting out of the track he’s the horse to beat. He’s looks appropriately priced at $3.00 in early markets and it’s hard to see him drifting to heavily from that quote.
  1. Sureasyouwereborn: This mares only previous run at 3200m was in the New Zealand Cup, where she finished fourth, beaten five lengths by Jimmy Mac. She gets a 3kg weight advantage for this event and while it might not be enough to turn around the result given her tendency to settle so far back in running. That said she’s in the right vein of form to run a big race at big odds based on her consistency at the shorter trips between 2000-2200m.
  1. King Kamada: His last two efforts in the Group 3 2300m Manawatu Cup and Group 3 2400m City Of Auckland Cup have both suggested a rise in distance to two miles would be of benefit. Opie Bosson takes over in the saddle and he did place second in the Group 1 Auckland Cup at this distance last year. He’s likely to sit 3 to 4 pairs back with cover and will be further enhanced by a likely good rated surface.
  1. Show The World: Is well suited on the quick back-up as he can be a touch keen in running. Trainer Murray Baker won the Caulfield Cup with Mongolian Khan off a 7 day back up and although they are different animals it’s likely that he can replicate the result. He carries 1kg less in this event than he did when fourth in the Group 1 Auckland Cup which is a much stronger race then the wellington cup. With 55kg he’s ideally weighted to finally land a major win with an ideal drawn in barrier 10 with Matthew Cameron to ride.
  1. Pentathlon: Game in defeat behind Jimmy Mac last start coming back in distance after winning a BM85 over 3200m two starts back. On the minimum of 53kg and while he doesn’t have the experience at the top level like some rivals, he a progressive stayer who will definitely run a strong 3200m. Will be on speed and give plenty of cheek but at $5.50 in early markets I expect him to drift.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Show The World for 3 units

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider