Trentham, Saturday 19th March 2016: The Betfair Insider

Current Track Rating: Dead 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 18th – Max 22c. Cloudy with chance of evening showers.

Saturday 19th – Max 22c. Cloudy with chance of evening showers.

 

R8 Wellfield NZ Oaks G1 2400m

Speed Map

NZ Oaks

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 4 winners have placed 1st or 2nd at their lead up run
  • 4 of past 4 winners have used Sunline Vase or Lowland Stakes as their lead up
  • 4 of past 4 winners have been 5th or 6th up 2 weeks between runs

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Savaria – SP $4.10 56.5kg BR 1 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Lowland Stakes G3 2100m Hastings

Miss Mossman – SP 56.5kg BR 4 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 2nd Lowland Stakes  G3 2100m Hastings

More Than Sacred – SP 56.5kg BR 14 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 1st Sunline Vase G3 2100m Ellerslie

Miss Artistic – SP 56.5kg BR 2 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st Sunline Vase Listed 2100m Ellerslie

Major Players 

1. Mime: Last start winner of the Sunline Vase which is the ideal lead up event. She has the early tactical speed to take up a forward position in running and relaxes in her races like the ultimate professional. Her race record of 10 starts 4 wins and 5 second placings also reflects her class. She finished 3.4 lengths behind Risque in the 1000 Guineas over 1600m at Riccarton in November. She looks very comfortable 2000m+ as her breeding suggest and no doubt she’ll improve again as her last start win was off a 21 day break.

2. Sofia Rosa: Dominant winner of the Lowland Stakes which is the other key lead up event to the Oaks. She travelled midfield in running and worked into the race strongly from the 600m mark, she careered away to win by 4.3 lengths. The rise to 2400m looks to be no issue for her and after drawing barrier four she can place herself midfield or closer in running. I expect better than $2.20 to be offered tomorrow so no need to rush in to back her.

3. Promise To Reign: Has chased Mime home at her past two starts and loomed up to go straight past her in the Sunline Vase. She had to check off heels slightly in the home straight but still wouldn’t have got past her with a trouble free run. Again she will be giving her an almighty start so it’s hard to see her turning the tables unless Mime fails to run 2400m.

5. Duchess Kate: Was posted wide throughout the Sunline Vase and pushed wider on the home turn. She still knuckled down when balanced up and attacked the line strongly in the last 200m. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her settle closer in the run from barrier 8 and if she can find cover she’ll be very strong at the end of the 2400m. Looks the value runner at double figure odds.

6. Coldplay: Never looked comfortable in the Sunline Vase hard ridden from the barrier and gave little when asked for an effort 800m from home. She was hard in the market with an SP close to $5. If anyone can turn her around from her last start failure its Murray Baker but that turnaround needs to be enormous.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (E/W) Promise To Reign – To lose 5 units win and place

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Duchess Kate – 1 unit to win and 2 units to place

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider