Trentham, Saturday, 16 January 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: January 15, 2016

Betfair Insider

Trentham, Saturday, 16 January 2016

 

Track

Dead 4

Rail True

Weather forecastwww.metservice.com

Friday 15th – Max 19, cloudy

Saturday 16th – Max 18, possible showers

 

R6 Levin Classic Group 1 1600m

Speed Map

levin classic

Race Profile

  • 0 of past 4 winners had been last start winners
  • 0 of past 4 winners had been SP favourite
  • 3 of past 4 winners were male

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead-up Result

 

2015 – Gaultier – SP$29 56.5kg BR9 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 7th 3Y0 maiden 1600m Ellerslie

2014 – Recite – SP$6.50 54.5kg BR10 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 4th G2 Eight Carat Classic 1600m Ellerslie

2013 – No Race

2012  – Southern Lord – SP$21.10 56.5kg BR10 – 6th up, 3 wks, 7th G1 2000 Guineas 1600m Riccarton

2011 – Distill – SP$36.50 56.5kg BR8 – 3rd up, 5 weeks, 7th G2 Wellington Guineas 1500m Trentham

 

Major Players

  1. XtravagantClearly the best three-year-old in New Zealand and should make light work of this field so happy to believe the hype and is entitled to be $1.40 in early markets. His win in the Group 1 2000 Guineas was incredible, destroying his rivals by a widening eight lengths. He has since had a short let-up and beat older horses at Ellerslie on Boxing Day. Expect him to win and then cross the Tasman and show his talent in the Australian Guineas at Flemington which looks well within his reach.
  1. RangipoHe has met Xtravagant once before and finished two lengths behind in a race that was won by Let Her Rip at Te Rapa in early October over 1200m. He was impressive winning the Group 2 Great Northern Guineas last start at Ellerslie, travelling on the speed and then kicking strongly in the straight. Appears under the odds at $6.50 with all the money likely to be for Xtravagant. I expect him to reach double figure odds close to race time.
  1. Ruud Not TooShe has made significant improvement this preparation, rising from a fillies and mares maiden win to placing behind Capella last start in the Group 2 Eight Carat 1600m at Ellerslie on Boxing Day. While her form is good, it is hard to see how she can beat Xtravagant under set weight conditions. Definite chance to run top 3 however.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Xtravagant – 10 units to win

 

R8 JR&N Berkett Telegraph Group 1 1200m

Speed Map

Telegraph G1

Race Profile

  • 0 of past 5 winners were SP favourite
  • 1 of past 5 winners had previous run in Railway Stakes
  • 3 of past 5 winners carried 56.5kg or more
  • 3 of past 5 winners were first-up

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead-up Result

 

2015 – Sacred Star – SP $27 57kg BR12 – 1st up, 10 wks, 9th G1 Livamol Classic 2040m Hastings

2014 – Irish Fling – SP $8.5 52kg BR4 – 1st up, 9 wks, 3rd G3 Lindauer Stks 1200m Riccarton

2013 – Final Touch – SP $14.5 58kg BR6 – 9th up, 3 wks, 3rd G3 Manawatu Chall Stk 1400m Manawatu

2012 – Guiseppina  – SP $4.70 53kg BR18 – 1st up, 9 weeks, 1st Listed Levin Stakes 1200m Otaki

2011 – Mufhasa – SP $19.60 56.5kg BR15 – 2nd up, 3 wks, 6th G1 Railway Stakes 1200m Ellerslie

 

Major Players

  1. Sacred StarWon this race last year with 57kg first-up and now second-up this preparation following a solid run in the Railway Stakes when fourth to Ryan Mark. Wasn’t suited by the soft conditions last start and should improve back on top of the ground. Meets Ryan Mark 2kg better and has great record at this track (3:1-0-1). Two starts ago carried 55kg in last year’s Stradbroke Handicap in the Brisbane Winter carnival and was only beaten 2.7 lengths to Srikandi. Maps well from barrier five and will be in the finish. Expect him to drift from $3.80 in early markets but firm late.
  1. Ryan MarkTook full advantage of inside barrier and settled on the tail of leader Allez Eagle before edging clear late to win the Railway Stakes. His record on rain affected tracks is much better than he is on the dry, which is expected this weekend. He’s a 1200m specialist with a good strike rate but I’m prepared to risk in this event with the 2kg rise to 58kg.
  1. Allez Eagle Was very game in defeat behind Ryan Mark but dealt an awful barrier considering his racing pattern is to go forward in the early stages. He’ll either be posted three wide of be forced to use extra energy to cross the field to sit outside the likely leader Adventador. I expect him to drift from $11 in early markets but rate him a knockout chance if he’s given an easy time in front.
  1. In Style Winner of the Group 1 Railway Stakes last year and scratched a fortnight ago due to the wet conditions. Returns to New Zealand after two runs in Melbourne during the spring carnival, including encouraging fifth behind Famous Seamus in the Group 3 Kevin Heffernan 1300m at Sandown. Keen to take $34 in early markets with the only major problem being where she gets to from barrier 16 upon settling.
  1. Scapolo Narrowly beaten at past two starts when flashing late from off midfield in both the Group 3 Arawa Stakes (58.5kg) and Group 3 Stewards Stakes (60.55kg), both run at 1200m. Meets Ryan Mark 2kg better from meeting at Arawa Park two starts ago and will be suited by the expected strong tempo in this. Not sure where he’ll get too from barrier 17 but with even luck he can run a big race.
  1. Vespa Has only missed a place 3 of 14 starts. Far from disgraced when fifth behind Kawi in the Group 1 Makfi Challenge 1400m last start back in August. The start prior ran 2nd in the Group 1 Easter Hcp over 1600m. His first up record is better than it looks, is unbeaten in two starts at Trentham and being a Group 1 winner at 1200m he looks fairly weighted with 56kg. If he can find cover from barrier 11 he’s over the odds at $11 in early markets.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Vespa – 2 units to win

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Scapolo – 1 units to win           

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – In Style – 1 unit to win

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider