Timeform Shortlist: York Ebor Festival Day 4

Posted: August 20, 2016 at 3:19 pm

R1 Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Stakes (Handicap) (2) 1¼m88y 10:45pm

Top Rated & Flags

Jack Berry House Stakes

Betting Forecast

$7 Scarlet Dragon, $9 Dark Red, $11 Snoano, $12 Stipulate, $15 Ode To Evening, Fallen For A Star, $17 Erik The Red, Master of Irony, $19 Montsarrat, $21 Sennockian Star, Chancery, $26 Bathos, $29 Awake My Soul, Imshivalla, Battalion, $34 Mohab, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Scarlet Dragon cemented the positive impression made in less exacting handicaps when a fine fourth at Goodwood last time, suggesting his mark remains a feasible one. He gets the nod to continue the good work. Dark Red is enjoying a fruitful campaign and is feared with Stipulate and Snoano also making appeal.

R2 Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3) (1) 1m208y 11:55am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 129 127 124 125 129 (Avg 127)

Top Rated & Flags

Strensall Stakes

Betting Forecast

$4.5 Diploma, $5 Scottish, $8.5 Custom Cut, $10 Educate, 11 Countermeasure, Tullius, $12 Gabrial, $17 Air Pilot, $21 Yorker, $23 Celestial Path

Analyst’s Verdict

Diploma has a bit more on her plate taking on some proven Group-race performers but she looked a filly going places when landing a listed event here at the end of last month and can take the step up in class in her stride. Scottish has posted 3 good efforts since joining Godolphin and gets the nod for the forecast spot ahead of 2014 winner Custom Cut.

R3 Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap) (2) 1¾m 11:50m

Top Rated & Flags

Melrose Stakes

Betting Forecast

$4 Shraaoh, $9 Emperor Napoleon, Kellstorm, $11 Forth Bridge, $13 Jaameh, Regal Monarch, $15 Unicorn, $17 Master Blueyes, $19 Injam, Girling, $23 Icefall, $29 Theos Lolly, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

As always a highly-competitive 3-y-o handicap. Shraaoh had a couple of these in behind when a fast-finishing second at Glorious Goodwood and can resume winning ways with further improvement very much on the cards. Emperor Napoleon was unlucky not to get a little closer to the selection at Goodwood and should go well, while Order of St George’s brother Kellstorm is respected for Aidan O’Brien.

R4 Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (1) 6f 12:25am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 128 121 129 124 130 (Avg 126)

Top Rated & Flags

Gimcrack Stakes

Betting Forecast

$3 Blue Point, $5 Mokarris, $6 Mubtasim, $12 Intelligence Cross, $13 Ardad, $15 Dream of Dreams, $23 The Last Lion, Global Applause, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Blue Point narrowly failed to justify short odds in the Richmond but that experience should have brought him on and he can show he’s one of the best juveniles around and take his record to 3 wins from 4 starts. Mokarris was very impressive when quickening clear in a Newbury listed event last time and may provide the main threat ahead of the unbeaten William Haggas colt Mubtasim.

R5 Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) (2) 1¾m 6f 1:00am

Top Rated & Flags

Betfred Ebor

Betting Forecast

$7.5 Antiquarium, $8.5 Ivan Grozny, $15 She Is No Lady, $17 Seamour, Tawdeea, Kinema, Heartbreak City, $19 Quick Jack, $21 Seismos, Oceanographer, Elidor, Vent de Force, $23 Top Tug, Shrewd, Battersea, $34 Oriental Fox, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Ivan Grozny can take this prize back to Ireland for the fourth time in 8 years. His brilliant trainer sent out Sesenta to win this in 2009 and Wicklow Brave to finish second 12 months ago and can land this historic handicap again. The 2014 Melrose winner Vent de Force looks interesting after an encouraging return at Sandown, while Heartbreak City is another leading Irish contender.

R6 Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) (1) 5f 1:35am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 122 122 116 113 111 (Avg 117)

Top Rated & Flags

Ross Stakes

Betting Forecast

$3.25 Sutter County, $4.33 Final Reckoning, $6 Afandem, $10 Smokey Lane, $13 Big Time Baby, Kyllang Rock, $34 Megan Lily, $51 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Probably a match between Sutter County and Final Reckoning, and despite his 4-month absence since winning at Newmarket, it’s hard to get away from Mark Johnston’s colt given the strength of the form of that race. Afandem could be the one for third.

R7 Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) (1) 5f 3:05am

Top Rated & Flags

Apprentice Stakes York

Betting Forecast

$6.5 Laughton, $10 Lady Macapa, $13 Lathom, East Street Revue, Celebration, Midnight Malibu, Just Glamorous, Quatrieme Ami, $15 Excessable, $21 El Astronaute, $26 Suqoor, Top of The Bank, $29 Lydia’s Place, $34 Love On The Rocks, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Laughton had several of these in behind when winning with some authority at Goodwood last month, seeming to relish the return to a big-field scenario, and this likable colt remains one to be interested in. Midnight Malibu and East Street Revue both arrive at the top of their game and need considering, while El Astronaute is in better heart than his recent form figures suggest.

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