Timeform Shortlist: Goodwood Day 1

Posted: July 26, 2016 at 9:39 am

Race Speed Profiles       Goodwood Shortlist Day 1 – Full PDF

R1 (Handicap) 11:00pm

Top Rated & Flags

Goodwood R1

Betting Forecast

$8.00 Fire Fighting, $8.50 Shakopee, $9.00 Second Wave, $13 Oasis Fantasy, $15 Snoano, Stars Over The Sea, Erik The Red, $17 Mutamakkin, Balmoral Castle, $21 Revolutionist, $23 Best of Times, $29 Imshivalla, Silver Quay, $34 Our Channel, Watersmeet, $51+ others

Analyst’s Verdict

Fire Fighting is 8 lb lower now than when third in this in 2015 and his latest efforts at Royal Ascot and York suggest a return to his very best is on the cards. He can give Mark Johnston a fifth winner in the last 11 runnings of this handicap. Oasis Fantasy, Doncaster-winner Shakopee and Second Wave are other leading contenders.

R2 (Group 2)  7f 11:35pm

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 121 124 125 124 115 (Avg 122)

Top Rated & Flags

Goodwood R2

Betting Forecast

$2.75 War Decree, $3.12 Boynton, $13 Thunder Snow, $15 Isomer, Larchmont Lad, $23 Medieval, $29 Hakeem, Repton, $34 Jackhammer, $51+ others

Analyst’s Verdict

Highland Reel and Galileo Gold are the last 2 winners of what is traditionally a really strong race. War Decree was beaten by Boynton (pair 5 lengths clear) in the Superlative at Newmarket but there wasn’t much in it and Aidan O’Brien’s charge may be able to reverse those placings on 3 lb better terms. Thunder Snow and Larchmont Lad head the dangers in what looks another good renewal.

R3 (Group 2) 7f 1:10am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 137 132 129 129 129 (Avg 131)

Top Rated & Flags

Goodwood R3

Betting Forecast

$3.25 Home of The Brave, $4.00 Dutch Connection, $7.00 Birchwood, $8.00 Markaz, $11 Gifted Master, $13 Buckstay, $34 Dream Dubai, $41+ Others

Analyst’s Verdict

Dutch Connection clearly stays 1m but his potent turn of foot is arguably seen to even better effect over 7f and the Charlie Hills-trained colt is taken to go one place better than 12 months ago. The front-running Home of The Brave is unlikely to give up his unbeaten record this year without a fight and looks next best ahead of Birchwood.

R4 (Handicap) 1¾m 1:45am

Top Rated & Flags

Goodwood R4

Betting Forecast

$5.50 King Bolete, $7.00 Qewy, $11 Gold Prince, Tawdeea, $13 Gang Warfare, Fun Mac, $15 A Soldier’s Life, Francis of Assisi, $17 Notarised, $19 My Reward, Elidor, $23 Arch Villain, $41+ Others

Analyst’s Verdict

This is highly competitive. Qewy made a cracking return to the Flat when narrowly denied at Royal Ascot and is taken to go one better now and continue the fine recent run of the Charlie Appleby yard. King Bolete’s Haydock win was boosted by Tawdeea landing the Old Newton Cup next time and both should go well here, while Notarised is down to a decent mark and also merits respect for Mark Johnston.

R5 (Handicap) 5f 1:20am

Top Rated & Flags

Goodwood R5

Betting Forecast

$6.5 Thesme, $7.5 Blithe Spirit, $11 Maljaa, $12 Shore Step, $15 Bowson Fred, Union Rose, $21 Brother Tiger, Boom The Groom, Dutch Masterpiece, $23 Harry Hurricane, Confessional, Hay Chewed, $26 Abstraction, Waseem Faris, $41+ Others

Analyst’s Verdict

Thesme‘s latest York third received a boost when the winner went in again in a hot race at Ascot on Friday and Nigel Tinkler’s steadily progressive filly looks to have plenty going for her. Maljaa and Bowson Fred weren’t beaten far in a similarly competitive heat last time and should go well, while Brother Tiger might have still just needed the run last time and could go well at bigger odds.

R6 (Maiden)  6f 1:55am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 97 107 105 95 94 (Avg 100)

Top Rated & Flags

Goodwood R6

Betting Forecast

$4.00 Harry Angel, $7.5 Parys Mountain, $8.5 Best Solution, $9 Mazyoun, $11 Rich And Famous, $12 Swag, Tesko Fella, $15 Colonel Frank, $21 Salouen, $51+ Others

Analyst’s Verdict

Harry Angel just failed on his debut in a warm Ascot event, and given time since, can open his account now stepped up in trip. Best Solution and Parys Mountain are both capable of better and are feared most of those with experience, while newcomer Mazyoun looks to have plenty going for him on paper.

R7 (Handicap)  1m 2:30am

Top Rated & Flags

Goodwood R7

Betting Forecast

$6.00 Quebee, $8.00 Pure Art, $9.00 Desert Haze, $10 Home Cummins, $11 Haley Bop, $12 Beleave, Lyfka, $15 Haggle, $19 Inke, Shwaimsa, $26 Doubly Motivated, $29 Gratzie, $34 Pacolita

Analyst’s Verdict

Quebee has had plenty in hand when winning handicaps at Windsor the last twice and could get the hat-trick up. The 3-y-os could dominate, with Pure Art, Beleave and Desert Haze all having appealing profiles also.

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