Timeform Shortlist: Doncaster St Leger Festival Day 4

Race Speed Profiles  Timeform Shortlist Doncaster St Leger Day 4 – Full PDF

R1 At The Races Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (1) 7f 11:00pm

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 129 130 129 121 130 (Avg 128)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$2.25 Rivet, $3.75 Thunder Snow, $7.5 Majeste, $12 D’bai, $15 Tommy Taylor, $21 Grey Britain

Analyst’s Verdict

Godolphin has taken this 4 times since 2009 and Thunder Snow, who proved himself at this level when runner-up in the Vintage at Goodwood, may represent a bit of value against Rivet, who was undeniably impressive at York but does take a jump in class here. Majeste also merits plenty of respect for another yard which has an excellent record in this race.

Race 2 Ladbrokes Portland (Handicap) (2) 5f140y 11:35pm

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$10 Captain Colby, $17 Double Up, Pipers Note, Final Venture, $19 Harry Hurricane, Bowson Fred, Confessional, Soie D’leau, $21 Humidor, Shamshon, Judicial, Son of Africa, Red Pike, $23 Related, Mont Kiara, $24 Highland Acclaim, Olivia Fallow, $29 Lexington Abbey, Move In Time, Out Do, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Ultra-competitive as expected but Judicial‘s strike rate and progress shouldn’t be taken lightly and another big run looks on the cards. Captain Colby shaped very well when third at York last time and is a must for the shortlist, while Lexington Abbey makes each-way appeal at bigger odds.

Race 3 Saint Gobain Weber Park Stakes (Group 2) (1) 7f 12:10am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 128 129 127 127 137 (Avg 130)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$3 Richard Pankhurst, $5 Toormore, $9 Buckstay, $10 Breton Rock, Adaay, $11 The Happy Prince, $12 Cougar Mountain, $67 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

The lightly-raced Richard Pankhurst showed just why his connections have persevered when landing the Hungerford Stakes in good style at Newbury 4 weeks ago and can defy a penalty. The other penalised runner Toormore may emerge as the biggest threat, ahead of Buckstay.

Race 4 Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (1) 1¾m132y 12:45am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 136 137 135 136 135 (Avg 136)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$1.83 Idaho, $5 Muntahaa, $9 Housesofparliament, $15 Sword Fighter, $23 Ventura Storm, $29 Harbour Law, Ormito, $67 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Muntahaa has seemingly been brought along with this race in mind, and though Idaho undoubtedly sets the form standard, John Gosden’s unexposed colt looks sure to relish this longer trip, which swings the vote in his favour, as the short-priced favourite isn’t guaranteed to be as effective at this distance. Sword Fighter is likely to be ridden prominently again and he could hold on for a place.

Race 5 Champagne Pommery Nursery Handicap (2) 1m 1:20am

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$5 Harbour Master, Khalidi, $5.5 Maths Prize, $9 Temerity, $11 Drochaid, Stellar Surprise, $13 Mount Moriah, $23 Oceanus, $26 Arborist

Analyst’s Verdict

Maths Prize is a well-made colt who has won his last 2 starts, but on both occasions he has left the impression there’s more in the locker, and this more competitive contest could bring out the best in him. Harbour Master continued his progression at Sandown last time and he would be folly to ignore in his hat-trick bid, while Khalidi is a potential improver on nursery debut.

Race 6 Napoleons Casinos & Restaurants Handicap (2) 1m 1:50am

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$4 Up In Lights, $4.5 Banksea, $7.5 Breakable, $9.5 Third Time Lucky, $13 Can’t Change It, $15 One Word More, $19 Czabo, $21 Dinkum Diamond, $26 King’s Pavilion, $34 Marcret

Analyst’s Verdict

The patient approach is paying off with Up In Lights, who won with more in hand than the length-winning margin suggests last time, and she remains a handicapper to keep on the right side of. Banksea wasn’t troubled by the drop back to 1m at York 3 weeks ago and he’s generally progressive, while Third Time Lucky took a step back in the right direction at the same meeting.

Race 7 EBF Breeders’ Series Fillies’ Handicap (2) 1½m 2:25am

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$5 Renfrew Street, $6 Bess of Hardwick, $6.5 Turning The Table, $7.5 Missed Call, $8.5 Moorside, $10 Sweet P, $11 Kiltara, $17 Lustrous

Analyst’s Verdict

Turning The Table has shaped as though in need of a sterner test both starts at 1¼m this term, and this lightly-raced filly could prove a different proposition now having her stamina stretched. Bess of Hardwick is yet to fulfil her abundant potential, but it remains early days, while Renfrew Street may get a stronger pace to aim at.

Race 8 Harriet De-Vere Powell Handicap (2) 1½m 3:00am

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$4 Stars Over The Sea, $4.5 Gold Trail, $5 Felix Mendelssohn, $7.5 Argus, $9 High Grounds, Ajman Bridge

Analyst’s Verdict

Felix Mendelssohn turned in his best effort of the season when one place behind Stars Over The Sea at Haydock last week and he seems to be coming to hand, so has to be of interest off 1 Ib lower. Argus looked in need of the run on return and this relatively lightly-raced 4-y-o may progress again.

 

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