Timeform Shortlist: Doncaster St Leger Festival Day 3

Posted: September 9, 2016

Race Speed Profiles  Timeform Shortlist Doncaster St Leger Day 3 – Full PDF

 

R1 Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (1) 7f 10:55pm

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 123 120 123 122 122 (Avg 122)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$2.37 Nemoralia, $4 Lumiere, $10 Same Jurisdiction, $11 Mise En Rose, $13 Spangled, La Rioja, $67 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Nemoralia has improved in leaps and bounds since winning a nursery at this meeting last season and she can defy a penalty before having another crack at the highest level. Lumiere’s impressive win at Newmarket is sandwiched in between 2 poor efforts but she’s capable of posing a real threat if in the mood, while Same Jurisdiction is a dual Grade 1 winner in her native South Africa.

R2 Pepsi Max Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) (1) 5f 11:35am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 122 125 123 115 125 (Avg 122)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$4.3 Tis Marvellous, $6 Yalta, $6.5 The Last Lion, $7 Afandem, $13 Prince of Lir, $15 Ardad, Hit The Bid, $26 Legendary Lunch, $34 Equimou, Rainbow Mist, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Tis Marvellous paid the price for taking on Lady Aurelia in the Prix Morny last time but he was an impressive winner of the Prix Robert Papin prior to that and can resume winning ways in a refitted tongue tie. Yalta is hard to predict but a reproduction of his Molecomb success would give him a big chance, while his much more reliable stablemate The Last Lion is another likely player.

R3 Ladbrokes Mallard Stakes (Handicap) (2) 1¾m132y 12:05am

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$5 Wall of Fire, $6 Fabricate, $8 Seamour, $9 Battersea, $11 Polarisation, $12 Oriental Fox, $15 First Mohican, $17 Elidor, $21 Stipulate, $23 All Talk N No Do, Cayirli

Analyst’s Verdict

The progressive Wall of Fire is the only 3-y-o in the field and makes the most appeal up against mostly exposed sorts. Fabricate should be suited by this galloping track and is feared most under Ryan Moore, though Stipulate is an interesting outsider stepping up in trip.

R4 250th Doncaster Cup (Group 2) (1) 2¼m 12:40am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 140 129 128 129 124 (Avg 130)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$3.5 Mizzou, $6 Clondaw Warrior, $6.5 Quest For More, $7 Clever Cookie, $11 Sheikhzayedroad, $17 Curbyourenthusiasm, St Michel, $21 Burmese, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Mizzou (SCRATCHED) had several of these behind him when runner-up in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot and is the one to beat. Positive tactics worked a treat for Quest For More in the Lonsdale Cup at York 3 weeks ago and he would be a very dangerous opponent if allowed an easy lead again, while improving 3-y-o St Michel shouldn’t be underestimated.

R5 Weatherbys Stallion Book Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed) (1) 7f 1:15am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: – – 130 121 120 (Avg 124)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$4 Taamol, $5.5 Salsabeel, $6.5 Rodaini, Senator, $7.5 Majoris, $8.5 Larchmont Lad, $21 Bacchus

Analyst’s Verdict

Five of these put their unbeaten records on the line, Taamol making the most appeal after his impressive debut success at Newmarket back in June. Salsabeel and Larchmont Lad are feared most.

R6 Still In The Running-Fm Outsource Classified Stakes (3) 1¼m60y 1:50am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 118 104 114 111 109 (Avg 111)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$3.75 Khairaat, $5 Winterval, $6 Indulged, $10 Laurence, $13 Rotherwick, $17 Carbon Dating, $19 Banish, $26 Warp Factor, $34 Calvinist, $67 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Winterval is one of several to have made a step forward upon joining Roger Varian from Luca Cumani and, on just his second start for his new yard, he’s expected to produce another career-best with blinkers on for the first time. He gets the narrow vote ahead of another pair of potential improvers in Khairaat and Indulged, the former likely to prove the best of these in time.

R7 Coopers Marquees Handicap (2) 6f110y 2:25am

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$4.5 Northgate Lad, $5 Nuno Tristan, $7 Get Knotted, $7.5 Normandy Barriere, $10 Shore Step, $13 Miracle of Medinah, $17 Fox Trotter, $19 Burnt Sugar, $29 Sixth Sense, $34 Lexington Times

Analyst’s Verdict

The fact that Nuno Tristan wasn’t beaten far from this mark in a more competitive race at Goodwood last month is enough to think he can get back to winning ways if things go right for him, with the booking of Jamie Spencer a positive given his racing style. Northgate Lad and Normandy Barriere, another pair who would benefit from a strong gallop, also arrive in top form.

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