Timeform Shortlist: Chantilly, Sunday 2nd October 2016

Posted: October 1, 2016

Race Speed ProfilesFull PDF: Timeform Shortlist: Chantilly, Sunday 2nd October 2016

R1 Total Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) 7f210y 11:10pm

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 131 127 127 134 128 (Avg 129)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$4 Toulifaut, $6 Promise To Be True, $8 Dabyah, $9 Cavale Doree, $11 Wuheida, First of Spring, $15 Normandel, $26 Baileys Showgirl, Senga, $34 Body Sculpt, $51 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Dabyah has created a big impression when winning both her starts and can provide John Gosden with a fourth win in this race. There are plenty of potential dangers, headed by Toulifaut and First of Spring.

R2 Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) Sponsored By Al Hazm (Group 1) 11:45pm

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 122 130 132 129 127 (Avg 128)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$3 Kontrastat, $4 Whitecliffsofdover, $7 National Defense, $9 King of Spades, $11 Salouen, $17 Thais, $21 Utah

Analyst’s Verdict

Not the strongest of renewals and Kontrastat looks the one to beat after his ready win in Prix La Rochette at Saint-Cloud 4 weeks ago. Whitecliffsofdover is a clear next best.

R3 Prix de l’Opera Longines (Group 1) 1m1f207y 12:20am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 130 133 127 128 131 (Avg 130)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$1.9 So Mi Dar, $6 Speedy Boarding, $7 Jemayel, $8.5 Pleascach, $26 Royal Solitaire, Sea Front, $34 Pagella

Analyst’s Verdict

So Mi Dar missed a summer campaign due to a setback but looks likely to make up for lost time this autumn judged on the manner in which she disposed of some very useful opposition in a Yarmouth listed event last month and can stretch her unbeaten record to 5. Fellow British raider Speedy Boarding, who is 2 from 2 in France, could be the one to give her most to do ahead of the returning Pleascach.

R4 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) 1m3f205y 1:05am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 144 135 147 141 142 (Avg 142)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$3 Postponed, $7.5 Makahiki, $9.5 Found, $10 Harzand, $15 New Bay, $17 Order of St George, Silverwave, $26 Highland Reel, Left Hand, $51 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Postponed is unlikely to find this a walk in the park, but he’s been imperious so far this year, whatever challenge he has faced, and is the one to beat. Aidan O’Brien holds the key to the strength of opposition, with Found perhaps the most obvious threat, though stablemate Order of St George could also run well at big odds with the drop back in trip unlikely to faze him.

R5 Qatar Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp (Group 1) 4f214y 2:35am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 125 128 124 122 124 (Avg 125)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$2.63 Mecca’s Angel, $9.5 Profitable, $12 Just Glamorous, $15 Marsha, Goldream, $17 Ardad, $26 Take Cover, Son Cesio, Cotai Glory, Washington Dc, $34 Finsbury Square, $51 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

There’s no strong case for opposing Mecca’s Angel, who is a cut above her rivals even before accounting for her 3 lb mares’ allowance, the horse (Limato) she beat comfortably in the Nunthorpe better than any of her rivals here. That said, countless things can go wrong in this race, so each-way plays on Profitable and last year’s winner Goldream could be equally as appealing.

R6 Qatar Prix de La Foret Sponsored By Rmc (Group 1) 6f211y 3:15am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 119 117 110 124 117 (Avg 117)

Top Rated & Flags

Betting Forecast

$2 Limato, $10 Spectre, $13 Suedois, Jimmy Two Times, $15 Attendu, $26 Birchwood, Trixia, Karar, $34 Same Jurisdiction, Coulsty, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Limato lost very little in defeat when clear of the rest in the Nunthorpe at York in August, and back at 7f, is a notch above these in terms of form, so he should take all the beating. 3-y-o Spectre arrives here on the back of a runner-up effort at the top level over 1m, so she is offered for the forecast in favour of Suedois.

 

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