Timeform Shortlist: Breeders Cup Day 2

Posted: November 5, 2016 at 4:10 pm

Race Speed Profiles  Full PDF: Breeders Cup Day 2

R4 14 Hands Winery Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) 1m110y 6:05am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 143 140 130 130 143 (Avg 137)

Top Rated & Flags

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Betting Forecast

$5.5 Union Strike, $7.5 Yellow Agate, $8 Noted And Quoted, Sweet Loretta, $11 American Gal, $13 Daddys Lil Darling, Valadorna, $15 Dancing Rags, $17 With Honors, Jamyson ‘n Ginger, $26 Champagne Room, $201 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

The manner in which Union Strike came clear to win a 7f Grade 1 at Del Mar last time suggests she’ll be seen to even better effect over this longer trip and she can follow up on her first start for new handler Craig Dollase. Noted And Quoted landed a Grade 1 success here last time and should go well for Bob Baffert, while Yellow Agate is unbeaten in 2 starts and is another who merits respect.

Race 5 Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf (Grade 1) 1¼m 6:43am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 131 137 133 135 135 (Avg 134)

Top Rated & Flags

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Betting Forecast

$3.75 Lady Eli, $4.5 Seventh Heaven, $6.5 Queen’s Trust, $15 Nuovo Record, Sea Calisi, $21 Catch A Glimpse, $26 Avenge, Al’s Gal, Pretty Perfect, $34 Sentiero Italia, $51 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Queen’s Trust represents a yard that knows how to win this race and remains with potential. She is preferred to her Yorkshire Oaks-conqueror Seventh Heaven, for whom there are slight concerns over the drop in trip, and the Japanese-runner Nuovo Record. Lady Eli looks the pick of the home team.

Race 6 Twinspires Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) 6f 7:21am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 140 139 132 134 140 (Avg 137)

Top Rated & Flags

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Betting Forecast

$3.75 A. P. Indian, $4.3 Lord Nelson, $4.5 Drefong, $7 Masochistic, $17 Joking, $23 Delta Bluesman, $26 Limousine Liberal, $29 Noholdingback Bear, $51 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Drefong gets the marginal vote seeing as 2 of the last 4 renewals of this contest have gone to progressive 3-y-os, and he is the sort who has more to offer. Clearly it won’t be plain sailing however, with the classy A. P. Indian and Lord Nelson unbeaten in 10 outings between them this season, the latter boasting an excellent course record, too.

Race 7 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) 6f110y 8:05am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 138 133 134 135 133 (Avg 135)

Top Rated & Flags

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Betting Forecast

46.5 Washington Dc, $10 Pure Sensation, $12 Obviously, $13 A Lot, Mongolian Saturday, $15 Celestine, Undrafted, $17 Home of The Brave, Holy Lute, Ambitious Brew, $21 Karar, Green Mask, $23 Lady Shipman, Om, $34 Calgary Cat

Analyst’s Verdict

Washington Dc was left with a lot to do but ultimately produced his best effort to date when a strong-finishing second in last month’s Prix de l’Abbaye, and he could be worth siding with to make the breakthrough at Group level. Pure Sensation arrives very much on a roll and is feared, along with Obviously.

Race 8 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) 1m110y 8:43am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 139 134 133 140 136 (Avg 136)

Top Rated & Flags

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Betting Forecast

$5.5 Gormley, $7 Syndergaard, Not This Time, Classic Empire, $8.5 Practical Joke, $10 Klimt, $13 Three Rules, $21 Theory, $34 Lookin At Lee, $51 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Not This Time recorded a most impressive win at Grade 3 level last time and could take a bit of stopping with further progress very much on the cards. Gormley established himself as one of the best juveniles around when readily landing a C&D Grade 1 last month and is an obvious danger, while Syndergaard represents a stable which has won this twice since 2010.

Race 9 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) 1½m 9:22am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 141 138 137 138 136 (Avg 138)

Top Rated & Flags

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Betting Forecast

$3.5 Found, $3.75 Flintshire, $5 Highland Reel, $13 Ulysses, $17 Ectot, $26 Mondialiste, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Flintshire has had this race on his radar all season for new trainer Chad Brown, and back on a firm surface, his potent turn of foot could prove the deciding factor, so he is marginally preferred to the admirably tough and consistent Found, who is bidding to defend her crown. Highland Reel looks sure to give his running again, but the highly-regarded Ulysses appeals as better each-way value.

Race 10 Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Sprint (Grade 1) 7f 10:01am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 135 141 136 137 138 (Avg 137)

Top Rated & Flags

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Betting Forecast

$4.5 Carina Mia, $5 Haveyougoneaway, $8.5 By The Moon, $11 Wavell Avenue, $13 Tara’s Tango, $15 Paulassilverlining, Irish Jasper, $19 Finest City, $23 Gloryzapper, $34 Paola Queen, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

Carina Mia looks the play having won the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes at Churchill Downs in May and Acorn Stakes at Belmont in June. She is taken to reverse Ballerina Stakes form with Haveyougoneaway and By The Moon, with the former feared most as she’s done nothing wrong for Thomas Morley. Last-year’s-winner Wavell Avenue is a danger to all if back on her game.

Race 11 Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1) 1m 10:40am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 139 137 138 139 142 (Avg 139)

Top Rated & Flags

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Betting Forecast

$4.5 Tepin, $5 Limato, $6 Alice Springs, $14 Ironicus, $21 Miss Temple City, $23 Midnight Storm, $25 Tourist, $27 Dutch Connection, $28 Photo Call, $29 Spectre, $32 Cougar Mountain, $36 Ring Weekend, What A View, $42 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

The extremely talented and versatile Limato should find this trip within range around this sharp track and on fast ground, so is marginally the call over last year’s winner Tepin and the thriving 3-y-o-filly Alice Springs.

Race 12 Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1) 1¼m 11:35am

Timeform Rating of previous winners: 137 140 142 140 151 (Avg 142)

Top Rated & Flags

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Betting Forecast

$2 California Chrome, $5 Arrogate, $7 Frosted, $25 Hoppertunity, Effinex, $27 Melatonin, $41 bar

Analyst’s Verdict

It’s hard to escape from the consistent brilliance of California Chrome, who has swept all before him in a terrific 5-y-o season up to this point and should prove difficult to beat. Improving 3-y-o Arrogate produced a remarkable performance when a wide-margin winner of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga and is the obvious threat, with Melatonin a possible for a place at long odds.

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