The Trial Files: VRC Derby Day – 31st October 2015

Posted: October 30, 2015

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THE TRIAL FILES

VRC Derby Day – 31st October 2015

 

Flemington trials in the weeks leading up to this four day carnival have been a brilliant pointer in years gone by and this year I spotted two horses that trialled absolutely enormous.

 

Race 4 – Coolmore Stud Stakes 3YO SW (1200M)

 

Speed Map:

SUPER ONE the likely leader and he can come over from gate ten and dictate the tempo.

The locally trained REGAZZO DEL CORSA and the NSW visitor, HELLBENT, both have enough tactical speed to be in the leading pack.

The horse everyone will be watching is the gun sprinter EXOSPHERE and he will settle nearer last than first in the field of twelve.

Speed down the straight isn’t hugely relevant in my experience and often the slower they go the more it brings backmarkers into play. On paper this will be a moderately run affair.

The Contenders:

A number of key horse’s trialled down the straight at Flemington last Friday and both the winner and main danger were present.

EXOSHPERE

He’s arguably the best sprinter in the country. Since failing in the Golden Slipper in March he’s produced three devastating wins capturing the Run To The Rose, The Golden Rose and the Roman Consul.

He trialled at Flemington on the 23rd of October over 800m and he was given a very quiet time, I noted; “EXOSPHERE travelled within himself in finishing about 3L off DELECTATION. He wasn’t asked to do much and just had a sighter of the straight.”

He’s $1.40 favourite and it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that is over the odds. If there is to be a fly in the ointment it might be barrier two which could potentially see him bailed away on the fence. The more likely scenario though is James McDonald will quickly ensure EXOSHPERE is extricated to the outside and he storms to victory.

SUPER ONE

Formally racing in Singapore he’s had four starts and won them by an aggregate margin of 17.8L. He was simply dominant – albeit against lesser class opposition than he meets today.

He was an odds-on favourite when beaten into second at Cranbourne on Cup Day. Many saw that run as disappointing but one must consider he didn’t have a trial leading up to that effort and his work restricted to the quarantine centre at Werribee.

A recent trial at Flemington suggests that he’s improved sharply for that one Australian outing, sparking this assessment:

“Not sure they trial much better than SUPER ONE. The boom Singaporean was disappointing at his Victorian debut when a touch disappointing in running second at Cranbourne. He has come through that run in flying colours. He matched motors with the speedy PROMPT RETURN in this heat and had his measure on the line under a massive hold – running electric time in the process.”

He is currently $26 and if the favourites off his game we feel he’s the horse to beat. At $4 to place were betting with confidence.

The Betting Strategy:

BACK – WIN – EXOSPHERE$1.50-$1.40 looks a fair price in early markets 2 unit win.

BACK – PLACE – SUPER ONE – The best value play. Have 1 unit win 3 units to place.

 

Race 9 – G2 Stakes (1200M)

 

Speed Map:

HOT SNITZEL, COUNTRY MAN and DOTHRAKI look the three most likely leaders.

BRING ME THE MAID and CHURCHILL DANCER both handy.

The two most favoured runners, UNDER THE LOUVRE and DELECTATION are going to settle in the second half of the field.

The Trial:

DELECTATION zoomed up the straight last Friday and impressed onlookers: “The story out of this trial was DELECTATION. He was comfortable racing on speed and let rip with a booming turn of foot over the last 200m under a very quiet ride. The time was just fair but the opposition was top shelf and credence has to be given to the trial. I ran the stopwatch over his last 200m a few times and it constantly came out around 10 seconds, allowing for an extra 0.5 seconds for errors it is still sensational work under a huge hold.”

DELECTATION brings enormous form to this six furlong sprint having beaten all but the champion CHAUTAUQUA in the Gilgai at this track and distance. DELECTAITON has an affinity with Flemington and on this day last year he was runner up to champion sprinter BRAZEN BEAU in the Coolmore Stakes.

Chris Waller has this 4YO trained to the minute and there is no one riding better than Hugh Bowman. I am staggered they are letting punters get on DELECTATION at Each Way odds – he is the clear best bet on the programme and rates a $3 chance.

The Dangers:

Under The Louvre

Has been good this campaign but those punters who’ve been following in would have third degree burn. Beaten an aggregate of 0.9L at his three most recent outings he is developing a trait of shirking the task,

He arguably had a tough run out wide in the Rupert Clarke but the race was his at the 200M mark when he shifted out and then last start he failed to reel in VASHKA when down in grade.

The step back in trip might be advantageous and UNDER THE LOUVRE has shown a liking for straight track racing in recent times. He is a chance – no doubt – but he rates a $6 chance and is hugely under the odds.

Knoydart

Ran third behind CHAUTAUQUA and DELECTATION and was very good in that Gilgai Stakes. He has since had a ‘ticking over’ trial at Cranbourne and went very nicely;

“KNOYDART trialled as you’d expect. He settled near the speed and McDonald sat as quiet as a church mouse on him in the straight. Clearly he is being aimed at a race like the Darley Sprint.”

His second up record is strong and from gate five should enjoy a lovely run off the speed. He rates a second favourite on my board at $5 and is over the odds.

 

Betting Strategy:

BACK – E/W – DELECTATION – is the standout bet on the programme. Having 3 units WIN and 4 units PLACE.

BACK – WIN – KNOYDART – is the main danger, have 1 unit WIN.

 

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