The Trial Files: Seymour Wednesday 9th September

Posted: September 9, 2015 at 10:12 am

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Seymour – Wednesday 9th September

 

Rail True, Good 4

Seymour invariably advantages horses on speed, with the rail coming back to the true position after being out (on a leader dominated day) it will advantage horses prominent in running.

RACE 1 – 3yo Mdn SW

Speed Map:

Little speed on paper only. DYMPHNA can be handy, BADCOE positive from the outside draw, VICIOUS has been handy in the past but he has shown a desire for longer trips and likely to go back. MUCCINO the likely leader. LORD VON COSTA draws nicely here, settling just behind the speed and will get run of the race.

Key Trials:

LORD VON COSTA has had three trials, two in Sydney and his latest eight days ago at Wodonga. He showed speed in his two NSW trials but looked likely to need further than 1000m – especially at Randwick on the 10th August.

At Wodonga he was ridden off the speed before closing strongly to the line under a hold – it was a visually appealing piece of work and I expect him to power late.

TOAST settled to the rear of the field at his only trial at Cranbourne. Making moderate ground only despite vigorous riding. Damien Oliver takes the mount but that’s about where the positives end today – I’m confident he’ll be better with racing and over more ground.

DYMPHNA showed tactical speed in a Caulfield jump out and that might be handy here on debut. She did struggle a bit late in the trial but that is typical of Mick Price horses.

 

The Raced Brigade:

VICIOUS stormed home two starts back at Geelong, his finish visually deceiving, merely running past some slow Horses. Last start in the McKenzie Stakes (Listed) at Moonee Valley he enjoyed a dream run in transit before failing to fire a shot. He was off the bit a long way out.  I’m confident he needs further to show his best, and will oppose here.

Betting Activity:

BACK – LORD VON COSTA – 0.5 unit WIN >$4

 

RACE 2 – 3yo Mdn SW

This doesn’t look a strong race on paper.

Speed Map:

MI CHEEKI SAN will look to cross and lead early. CHEEKY CHINCHILLA will press forward from a good draw, RUNSATI to find his back. CODEBREAK will position up handy from barrier three. THE FLYING DOORMAT must push up hard early to avoid being buried on the fence despite drawing barrier 1.

Big Watch:

Respect has to be shown for the unraced and unseen Weir Runner, MAHUTA.

Key Trials:

The two key runners both come off recent Wodonga trials.

CODEBREAK looked very impressive, she settled off the speed before charging to the line under a vice like grip. She carried a heavy weight rider on board and carried the extra impost with aplomb. She should box seat here and be hard to hold out.

RUNSATI won his Wodonga trial by 3L (also carrying a heavy weight rider), but the time was inferior to CODEBREAK, he took plenty of riding before and around the home turn to win his trial. With only reasonable racetrack form and an awkward draw he’s a big risk at the early price of $5.5

Betting Activity:

LAY – RUNSATI – E/W – 2 units WIN < $8 & 1 unit the PLACE < $3

BACK – CODEBREAK – 1 unit WIN at > $3

 

 

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