The Trial Files: Seymour – Tuesday 22nd September

Posted: September 22, 2015

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THE TRIAL FILES

Seymour – Tuesday 22nd September

 

Rail +3m, Good 4

The rail moves from the True to +3m position. The track played fairly on September 9th so expecting similar here.

 

RACE 1 – Skilled @ Darley 3yo Fillies Maiden Plate 1109m

Speed Map:

Expecting a good tempo. SILENT SEDITION has tactical speed and is likely leader. THE HORSE IS HERE will box seat from barrier one. PERFECT BEAT and HAMSEY both handy.

MISS GIDGET has drawn awkwardly in barrier two, she’s likely to be three pairs back on the fence. Not the place to be around the tight home bend at Seymour.

CONSPICUOUS MAID and JUNGLE ROCK will both be outpaced early but will get their chance if good enough.

 

Key Trials:

CONSPICUOUS MAID was ridden off the speed in two very soft trials at Caulfield, impressing at both.

On the 15th September she trialled on the Synthetic and I loved the way she moved through the field under restraint, to kick clear late. The time was only fair, but the way she worked was excellent.

GUILTY AS SIN showed good speed in her most recent trial at Flemington against some reasonably performed older horses. She looks to have more than her share of ability and with a nice long run into the only bend she can be very prominent in the run.

MAXIE’S BLUE GIRL (Cranbourne 11/9) trialled over 990m and settled just shy of midfield through the first half of the heat. She coasted to the line without urgings impressively despite finishing well behind the winner.

MISS GIDGET (Cranbourne 10/8) produced a very strong trial in slow time for the morning. She has had six weeks off since that trial which does ring alarm bells. Has she gone amiss? However, Mark Zahra takes the ride which is a positive.

PERFECT BEAT (Wodonga 1/9) sat outside the leader and was keen to go quicker early doors. She ambled up outside her stablemate approaching the home turn but took a fair while to reach top gear.  I’m happy to be against her.

SILENT SEDITION showed good speed in a Caulfield trial earlier this month and then went around on the Synthetic on the 15/9 and was ultra-impressive in leading all the way. This is a very talented war chant filly trained by Andrew Noblet.

 

Major Players:

SILENT SEDITION looks hard to beat on debut. This filly has a high cruising speed and looks to possess a strong turn of foot. She’s the standout trial horse coming into the race.

MISS GIDGET is a runner up to FONTITON first up last campaign. Including a narrow second to THURLOW on debut at Listed Level in the Merson Cooper (1000m). She trialled OK back in August but it is worrying that she is six weeks between that outing and this first up run. She maps poorly here also which is enough concern to think the current price is grossly under the odds.

 

Betting Activity:

LAY – WIN – MISS GIDGET – We can’t get her any shorten than $3.25 here. Lay her up to this price to lose 2 units. Her current price in early markets is $1.70

BACK – E/W – SILENT SEDITIONWe’ve rated her closer to $4.80 chance, with double figure odds in early markets $14-17 we advise to back her 1 unit WIN, 1.5 units PLACE.

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