The Trial Files: Sale November 26

Posted: November 26, 2015 at 10:43 am

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SALE 26th November

The track is a Soft 5 with a couple of showers forecast. The rail has been in the True and +5M positions at the two most recent meetings, respectively, and those out wide benefitted most. Generally Sale is a track where horses out wide get their chance.

 

RACE 3 – 1205M Maiden for the 3YO Fillies

 

Speed Map

AVENUE WHISPER can move forward from gate five and search for the early lead. The other speed, SCHILLIE BILLIE and TEOFLYTE, are both drawn out wide. SCHILLIE BILLIE has the superior tactical speed and think she will get over outside of AVENUE WHSIPER potentially leaving TEOFLYTE to be the widest. There is a long run into the one bend out of the 1200M chute so the jockeys will take their time finding a spot and they shouldn’t go overly hard.

 

The Horse To Beat

AVENUE WHISPER has had two very good jump outs at Caulfield.

On the 4th November she sat outside RUDY’S FRIEND (subsequent maiden winner) and was a certainty 200m from home before being eased on the line.

On the 11th November she again showed very good speed and was ridden out a touch in running in a very strong time for the morning.

This 3YO daughter of Street Cry out of Avenue looks to have above average ability and she will take a power of catching on debut.

She rates a $2.25 chance on debut, and while the early price has been taken, I expect her to drift close to $3 or more on the exchange as post time approaches.

 

Trial Form

SCHILIE BILLIE backs up quickly from a Flemington trial last Friday. In spite of leading and dropping out to finish fourth, the work of SCHILLIE BILLIE was above average for an unraced 3YO filly. She is very quick early and runs along at a high cruising speed, key elements that will see her in the winner’s circle before too long

Trained by Stevie Brown, this filly looks above average.

CHAMUNDA resumed off an 18 week spell and she went to the official trials at Cranbourne on the 9th November. She settled near the tail of the field before getting a lovely run on the rail at the top of the straight. She was placed under immense pressure in the run to the line and failed to show anything.

She has been in the market in two career starts to date but on this work it is very hard to see her placing.

Luke Oliver took KAT COMES TO TOWN (SCRATCHED) up to Echuca for a public trial on the 17th November and worked to the line strongly after being last in the early stages. She has drawn a wide gate and without any evident tactical speed in her arsenal she is going to settle near enough last. She has a nice turn of foot and ability but I’d be more confident as she steps up in distance.

STRYKING LOVE went to the Mornington jump outs (20th November). She settled second last and was under pressure halfway through the trial. She eventually worked to the line strongly but it was alarming how long she took to wind up over the 1000M. She has contested some reasonable races in a three start career but based on this work she isn’t going well enough to be competitive first up.

TEOFLYTE comes through a Cranbourne trial on November 9th where she was able to settle outside the speed from a soft gate. She raced erratically in the straight and quickly gave ground under pressure close to the line. This Griffiths trained filly has drawn poorly here and with two speedy horses drawn underneath she faces a tough task to be better than three wide. Happy to work around her.

 

The Raced Brigade

The best of the raced brigade is clearly LITTLE INDIAN. It is hard to believe she is still a maiden but she continues to find bad luck in running.

She contested a $200k race down the straight on Oaks Day and was no match for the likes of SECRET AGENDA. She was near the winner 400M from home but ended up being beaten 10L, albeit in what was obviously a stronger race.

She doesn’t possess a huge deal of tactical speed and from gate three she will end up buried behind a wall of horses close to the rail. This trait has cost her a few races around bends and again she maps very poorly.

PRINCESS ARROW is the other prominent player amongst those who’ve raced. She ran into a little interference when resuming over 1300M at Cranbourne after showing good early speed.

She was close enough to smart gallopers such as SAFARIANN and DOUN’T DOUBT MARLEY at her first campaign and that form sees her competitive here. On her first up run I’d rather her going to 1400M than dropping back to 1200M. Happy to risk.

 

The Betting Strategy

BACK – WIN – AVENUE WHISPER – happy to back her as low as $2.25 for 4 units

BACK – WIN – SCHILLIE BILLIE – rates closer to $7 than the $12 currently on offer. Have 1 unit to win.

 

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