The Trial Files: Racing.com Park @ Pakenham – Wednesday 16th September

Posted: September 16, 2015

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THE TRIAL FILES

Racing.com Park @ Pakenham – Wednesday 16th September

Rail True, Soft 5

 

Pakenham returns to Turf track racing after the inner Synthetic track provided racing a great alternative over the wet winter months.

The state of the art 2400M track features long runs into major bends out of three distinctive chutes and unlike the previous Pakenham track we will see fair racing on a brilliant surface.  

Any analysis of this newly opened track is working off a very small sample but it was very hard to lead and win. Horses settled off the speed and built their momentum as they ran to and around the home turn were advantaged, momentum is crucial coming into the straight.

 

RACE 2 – Polytrack 3yo BM64

Speed Map:

SPORTS WRITER is the key runner. She suffered early interference, settling well back last start but from barrier 1 they will want to push forward.

MR BOBBI (Barrier 2), SECRET OBSESSION (6) will race handy from good draws.

FAATINAH sat outside the leader on debut but suspect that was more to offset the wide draw – form an inside alley Walker will look for early cover.

MR INDIVIUAL (8) will look to settle in behind this early speed – he might end up three wide, but with cover he can still win the race.

Overall tempo looks strong.

 

The Trials:

MR OPTIMISTIC spent the winter months spelled in Southern Queensland. He trialled at the Sunshine Coast on the 18th August. He tailed the field for the majority of the heat – only getting warm in the last 50M.  He hasn’t trialled publicly since returning to Victoria and but on what we’ve seen he will stretch out over further this campaign and should find these too sharp.

SEA OF TRANQUILITY trialled impressively at Cranbourne.  In his first start this time in he drifted alarmingly in betting. He had no luck in running, going to the line hard held.

He finished second last but had the breaks fallen his way he would have won the race. There is no doubt this is a step up in class but with a strong tempo likely early he can run home into the placings at big odds.

ANDRIOLI trialled poorly leading into her first up effort, and was in need of the run when resuming at Sandown. She will come on enormously for that outing but is another runner looking for further. Very happy to bet around her again.

The Main Danger:

DEVILS PINCH won a very good form race on debut beating SPORTS WRITER and SISTINE SPIRIT (subsequent Sandown winner). He was unlucky at Sandown most recently getting back to last early and having no clear galloping room when ridden for luck up along the inside fence.

Drawing out is no disadvantage for this son of Equiano. Regan Bayliss will take him back to last, he will swing widest with the long straight allowing him plenty of time to work through his gears.

The Winner:

MR INDIVDUAL is the horse we like here and frankly it wouldn’t be a silly decision to back him for the Caulfield Guineas before he runs, and wins here.

His debut win was exceptional. Trapped extremely wide throughout the race but still had the audacity to run straight past the leaders and record exceptional time in the process (time was comparable with the very smart GREEN CARD who came to Caulfield and mercilessly flogged JALAN JALAN).

This Leon Corstens trained Colt resumed in the McNeil and nothing went right. He refused to settle off the dawdling tempo, Michael Rodd was forced three wide with no cover early, then running off the track turning for home, proving difficult to ride out late. To be beaten only 2.9 lengths was incredible.

Multiple gear changes have been employed today with the most notable being the addition of blinkers.

We’ve rated MR INDIVIDUAL close to $1.30 here, to take a conservative approach we can factor in behavioural issues which makes his price closer to the $1.85 mark. Anything better than $1.85 looks maximum value.

Betting Activity:

BACK – MR INDIVIDUAL – 3 units WIN >$1.85

BACK – DEVILS PINCH – 0.5 units WIN, 1 unit PLACE

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