The Trial Files: Moonee Valley 28th November

Posted: November 27, 2015

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MOONEE VALLEY 28th November

 

The MV rail is in the True position for their first Saturday raceday since Cox Plate Day. The 1600M start at MV provides a 400M straight run into the first bend and is one of the more generous starting points on the tight circuit.

 

RACE 6 – 1600M

Speed Map

The speed map is crucial with a few horses being seriously disadvantaged. MASTER RESET and SCELTO on the inside will be challenged by those drawn out wide; SADAQA, CLUB STAR, DANTE’S FINALE and OUR VALDIVIA.

The horse I want to focus on is GOLDEN MANE who from gate one will likely settle midfield. The pole draw doesn’t look favourable on paper but a genuine tempo should see the field break up a bit and Dylan Dunn should get a chance to extricate him to the outside at some point.

The Favourite

CLUB STAR has been sensational this preparation. He beat the talented HARBOUR GREY first up at Seymour and then blitzed his rivals on Kyneton Cup Day after enjoying the run of the race up to 1400M.

This race is another step up in grade for the Moody trained runner but punters have again latched onto the 4YO gelding and made him a short priced favourite.

The concern is where he gets too in the run. As mentioned there is plenty of speed drawn both immediately to his inside and down closer to the rail. Up to 14000M last start he was able to stalk the speed and his racing pattern would suggest he wants to race right on speed now up to the mile. The barrier makes it very tricky for Glen Boss and it is either a case of going harder early or sit back and hope to sneak in before the first bend.

A second concern is this gelding overraced over a mile last preparation and, although they will run along at a strong tempo here, he will likely be pulling again if Boss decides to ride him quieter.

CLUB STAR has been well placed so far this preparation and the owners have reaped the benefits. However, the change in distance up to the mile, with 57kg and against much stronger opposition, he is far too short at $2.60 in early markets – I price him closer to $4.

The Each-Way Value

GOLDEN MANE trialled very nicely leading into his resumption at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day.

Flemington Trial Comment 23/11: “GOLDEN MANE drifted back to last. She peeled out five wide coming around the home bend and although she took a while to pick up she really ran through the line strongly. This David Hayes trained gelding was extended after the post and quickly picked up the leading duo. The work was nice and he is in for a good preparation over longer trips.”

She was hampered at the start, which saw him out the back last start and was held up for the first half of the straight. He was out beyond the ‘fast lane’ over the concluding stages but made very strong ground for the final furlong. The race was won by MALAGUERRA who went on to win again on Stakes Day and with subsequent winners; GOOD PROJECT (Group 1 Railway Stakes), DURENDAL and WEINHOLT coming through the race it is proving a very strong formline.

GOLDEN MANE is searching for a strongly run mile and this race shape sets up perfectly for his run on style. After the claim for Dylan Dunn (56kg) he gets in well at the weights relative to the likes of CLUB STAR and provided he can get off the fence and have a crack at them in the straight he is a huge EW chance.

I rate him a $4 equal favourite with CLUB STAR and with more than double that on offer.

Betting Strategy

Happy to oppose CLUB STAR – lay him to lose 2 units up to $3.50 WIN and 1 unit PLACE up to $1.90

BACK GOLDEN MANE – 2 units WIN, 3 units PLACE

 

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